We’re about 8 hours away from (likely) hearing the result in both marriage equality cases, so here are my predictions: In the DOMA case, I expect section 3 of DOMA to be overturned on very narrow grounds (no declaration that sexual orientation is a suspect class requiring heightened review and no equal protection basis for the ruling, but still a win for equality). In the Prop 8 case, I think they either punt on it or hand down a very narrow ruling that strikes down Prop 8 but does not apply to other states. I feel more certain about the first prediction than the second one. I wouldn’t be shocked if they punted on both cases and I wouldn’t be shocked if they uphold Prop 8. I also wouldn’t be shocked if I got this all completely wrong. These are the most complex Supreme Court cases I’ve ever seen, in terms of the sheer number of possible outcomes, because of all the standing and procedural questions that could allow them to punt on them in various ways.
My Predictions on the Marriage Equality Cases
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