The Monty Hall Problem – Part 2

These probability tree diagrams represent a standard line of reasoning in support of the ‘correct’ answer to the Monty Hall problem.

About Stephen Law
  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/16624603521338516156 DFB

    How come you put the word "correct" in quotes? It reads like you are somehow questioning the correctness of the correct answer. Are you a little uncomfortable with proclaiming it completely and forever correct? Because it is.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/05211466026535549638 Bradley Bowen

    Response to DFB:

    It seems to me that the claim that the switching strategy gives a higher probability of winning the car is correct.

    What persuades me is thinking about a similar contest where there are a million books in a library, and one book has been selected at random, and a golden ticket was placed in that book by the librarian. A contestant then selects one of the books in the library at random (say Moby Dick). The librarian then eliminates every book in the library except Moby Dick and A People's History of the United States. The contestant clearly should switch at that point and go with A People's History…

    But since the reasoning supporting the 'correct' answer to the Monty Hall problem seems to be flawed, I'm not 100% confident that the 'correct' answer is in fact correct. If I can pinpoint the flaw in the reasoning, and correct the error, then I can be 100% confident.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/16624603521338516156 DFB

    Wait. What? The reasoning supporting the correct answer is flawed? What did I miss?

    What's flawed about it? I guess I didn't understand that about these posts. The correct solution is best written in math, not English, but otherwise the reasoning looked fine to me. What's the problem?

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/08327078173686587443 Jack M

    The right reverend Bayes will show you the truth.

    http://www.richardcarrier.info/bayescalculator.html

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/12045468316613818510 Blue Devil Knight

    Book on the problem here, not sure if it is good, but he is a clear writer on his blog.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/05211466026535549638 Bradley Bowen

    DFB said…

    The correct solution is best written in math, not English, but otherwise the reasoning looked fine to me. What's the problem?

    =========
    Response:
    I will start presenting an objection (or two) to the verbal reasoning and probability tree diagrams in the next post.

    Will try to get the next post out today. It might take a couple of posts to get out both of my objections.


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