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How come you put the word "correct" in quotes? It reads like you are somehow questioning the correctness of the correct answer. Are you a little uncomfortable with proclaiming it completely and forever correct? Because it is.
Response to DFB:
It seems to me that the claim that the switching strategy gives a higher probability of winning the car is correct.
What persuades me is thinking about a similar contest where there are a million books in a library, and one book has been selected at random, and a golden ticket was placed in that book by the librarian. A contestant then selects one of the books in the library at random (say Moby Dick). The librarian then eliminates every book in the library except Moby Dick and A People's History of the United States. The contestant clearly should switch at that point and go with A People's History…
But since the reasoning supporting the 'correct' answer to the Monty Hall problem seems to be flawed, I'm not 100% confident that the 'correct' answer is in fact correct. If I can pinpoint the flaw in the reasoning, and correct the error, then I can be 100% confident.
Wait. What? The reasoning supporting the correct answer is flawed? What did I miss?
What's flawed about it? I guess I didn't understand that about these posts. The correct solution is best written in math, not English, but otherwise the reasoning looked fine to me. What's the problem?
The right reverend Bayes will show you the truth.
Book on the problem here, not sure if it is good, but he is a clear writer on his blog.
The correct solution is best written in math, not English, but otherwise the reasoning looked fine to me. What's the problem?
=========Response:I will start presenting an objection (or two) to the verbal reasoning and probability tree diagrams in the next post.
Will try to get the next post out today. It might take a couple of posts to get out both of my objections.
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