As I predicted a few weeks ago, Trump is going to keep the government open by signing the bill overwhelmingly passed by Congress, then declare a national emergency over immigrants crossing the southern border. That will, of course, be immediately challenged in court and won’t actually do anything until and unless the Supreme Court allows him to way down the line.
The legal challenges are already written and will be filed by the end of day tomorrow, I’m sure. The district court will issue an injunction preventing Trump from moving forward and spending any money, which Trump will then appeal but lose, perhaps all the way to the Supreme Court. Then it will get a full trial on the merits, which will go all the way to the Supreme Court. At that point, I do not expect him to win. I think Roberts and the four liberals will vote against Trump.
The Senate overwhelmingly passed a massive budget and border security deal Thursday, after President Trump committed to signing the legislation but said he’d also declare a national emergency to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
The $333 billion legislation passed 83-16, and it is expected to pass the House later Thursday, in time to avert a government shutdown slated to start Saturday.
Trump’s commitment to sign the bill ensures there will not be a government shutdown beginning Saturday, barring a reversal from the mercurial president or a surprise defeat in the House. But the president’s decision to declare a national emergency, rumored for weeks, drew condemnation from Democrats and divided Republicans.
Yes, the courts tend to give a lot of deference to the executive when it comes to national security, but the case for a national emergency is so weak in this case that it’s downright laughable. If the court wouldn’t let Truman nationalize the steel industry, I don’t see how they could allow this. But by the time it works its way through the courts, it may be moot anyway because we may — fingers crossed — have a rational president again.
But for Trump, this is a win-win politically. He doesn’t have to take more damage from a second government shutdown and he gets to tell his base that he tried to get around those damn liberals and RINOs to get the job done. And if the courts turn him down, he gets to rail against them too, another thing his base loves.