Harry Enten, one of the leading poll analysts in the country, tweets out a link to a new poll by IPSOS/USA Today that shows that while Trump’s racist attack on the four Democratic progressives plays well with his base, it hurts him with the independent voters that are necessary to attract in order to win reelection in 2020.
Trump ain't playing 3d chess on this. He's playing Candy Land. Trump managed to turn a potential advantage (a very liberal Dem party) into tweets that a majority are against. https://t.co/fUWWG2ayF1
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 17, 2019
When asked to agree or disagree with the belief that “Telling minority Americans to ‘go back where they came from’ is a racist statement,” 85% of Democrats agree, 67% of independents agree, and even 45% of Republicans agree with it. Only 12% of independents disagree with it. When asked whether Trump’s racist tweets were offensive, 68% of independents agreed. And 54% of independents said they were “un-American.” Trump has worked overtime to appeal to his base, but that base simply isn’t large enough to win an election. In 2016, he had the benefit of being seen as a total political outsider promising to go to DC and clean house, but after four years in office that image is gone.Of course, this disclaimer is important: As in 2016, it isn’t necessarily true that popular support determines the outcome of the election. Trump will easily win the strongly Republican states and has to win those key swing states to win the election, so the geographic distribution of votes matters more than overall popular vote. But the polls are showing him doing badly against all the top Democratic candidates in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But further disclaimer: The election is a long ways off yet and a lot can change between now and then. In 2016 I was virtually certain that Trump would be crushed and I was obviously very wrong. This time around, I’m going to be much more circumspect about making predictions.