Polling has shown that Trump is very unpopular all over, but the most surprising finding of several polls is that he may be in serious trouble in Texas, which has been trending more and more Democratic with each election. Nearly half of Texas voters say they will not vote for him in 2020, a lot more than those who say they will.
Over the course of 2018, Gallup polling found that President Trump was not very popular in Texas. Of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, nowhere was his approval rating lower than in the Lone Star State.
Trump’s job performance was viewed more negatively there than in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. He won those states by 78,000 votes, handing him an electoral college edge and the White House. If he’d lost Texas in 2016, though? That alone would have been enough for Hillary Clinton to prevail and head back to Washington.New polling from Quinnipiac University offers a slightly better picture for Trump: His approval in Texas is now at 45 percent. That’s still not great, particularly given that half of Texans registered to vote view him with disapproval…
Of those surveyed, 48 percent said that they would definitely not vote for Trump to have another four years. Thirty-five percent, barely over a third, said that they would definitely vote for him.
If he lost Texas, the election is over. The Democrats will automatically get California, Illinois, New York and the District of Columbia, which have a combined 167 electoral votes. Add Texas’ 38 electoral votes to that and it becomes almost mathematically impossible for him to get to win. The other factor is that Democrats have about a million more declared registered voters than Republicans in Texas now. I wouldn’t bet on this happening, but if it did it would pretty much kill the Republicans for the next few years. It will all come down to turnout.