So I’ve been reading What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster, by Jonathan V. Last and wanted to type up my thoughts.
Total Fertility Rate by Household Income Level (p. 44):
< $20,000 2.038
$20 – 30K 1.988
$35 – 50K 2.052
$50 – 75K 1.734
$75 – 100K 1.752
$100K+ 1.832
< high school diploma 2.447
high school graduate 1.947
1 + yrs college 1.719
Assoc. degree 1.820
Bachelor’s degree 1.632
Grad. school 1.596
native-born women: 2.0
foreign-born women: 2.6
non-believers: 1.66
observant Protestants: 2.2
observant Catholics: 2.3
1970 6.72
1980 4.71
1990 3.40
2000 2.58
2009 2.07
1980ish (“thirty years ago”): 6.5
now: 1.88
** note that the 6.5 was caused by the post-Revolution “baby boom” due to religious fervor and/or government pressure, and was not a historical long-term rate.
42% of the population below age 15
49% between 15 and 30
=only 9% over age 30!
median age is 15.8 years
TFR of 1.3
population projected to decline from 143 million (2005) to 136 million (2025) or, in more pessimistic projections, to 121 million.
Oh, man, is Japan in trouble.
now: 127.8 million
2050: projected to drop to 100 million
2100: optimistically, 91 million; realistically (unchanged fertility rates), 56 million.
in 2011, more adult diapers sold than baby diapers.
lots and lots of pro-natalist legislation making no difference
1972 2.14
1990 1.54
1995 1.42
2001 1.33
2003 1.29
(erratic years because the chart keys off of years when pro-natalist legislation passed)
top nine:
Ireland 2.08
France 2.01
UK 1.91
Netherlands 1.78
Luxembourg 1.77
Denmark 1.74
Finland 1.73
Sweden 1.67
Spain 1.48
Germany 1.41
Hungary 1.41
Italy 1.40
Czech Rep. 1.27
foreign-born women: 2.8 (another source: 3 x native-born women)
1960: 5.45
1965: 4.7
1966: beginning of major efforts at population control
1976: 2.1
1980: 1.74
1986: reverse course, incentives for more children
small rebound: 1988, 1.96
but then decline, despite ever-greater incentives:
1999: 1.48
2001: 1.41
2004: 1.24
“now”: 1.11
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