That is, with bloggers like Mickey Kaus and Ace at Ace of Spades HQ, and Mark Krikorian at the Center for Immigration Studies, and maybe a few others.
The more I see of Rubio, and of the politics of this election season, the more I believe that it is the single issue of immigration that is preventing Rubio from succeeding in the polls, and ultimately in the primaries. He has simply not made a credible case that he will hold to his word and fully implement enforcement before signing off on a legalization program.
Why?
Because it is clear that what he personally wants is the opposite, an immediate legalization program followed by enforcement measures. His insistent repeating of the statement that he’s changed his mind because Americans don’t believe the government would get the job done on law enforcement is telling, and worrisome, because he’s leaving himself a way out: if Congress sends him a legalization program law, he can simply declare that, lo and behold, Congress surely is representing the will of the people, and get out his signing pen. Would Congress do this? Ryan supports it, after all. Would there be hell to pay from an angry electorate? Maybe, but there have been plenty of cases where that hasn’t stopped those in power, convinced that they know better and that the electorate will forget by the time the next election comes.
And it would have been so easy for Rubio to have chosen different words: not, for example, “Americans don’t believe” but “I have come to recognize that our government, as an institution, isn’t trustworthy.”
What’s more, he doesn’t, anywhere in his stump speech, show any recognition of why Americans oppose legalization (or, rather, accept it only in a case where it’s a certainty that it’s a true one-time event and accompanied by shutting down future illegal immigration) and high levels of immigration. He doesn’t show any comprehension of the worries that working class Americans have gotten hammered by the perfect storm of globalization, automation, and an influx of low-skilled workers underbidding them for unskilled work, and that their wages have stagnated. He doesn’t acknowledge the anger that the H1-B program is being abused and hurting workers who train their replacements, that the tech giants proposing higher immigration levels are doing so to hold down wages, not due to labor shortages.
Rubio has also said that, during this period of enforcement implementation, he has no intention of deporting anyone but hardened criminals, which makes the particulars of his program hard to tease out. Does he agree with those who object to workplace enforcement because it deprives future legalize-ees of the ability to earn a wage? Would his interim policies amount to de facto immediate legalization?
So far as I can tell, his strategy is (a) to repeat his current stump speech and hope that enough voters don’t know his past to question his credibility, and (b) to write off voters who oppose him on immigration. Either that, or he just doesn’t get it, just doesn’t understand how much of a difference it makes.
Which is why he needs to take two actions:
first, the “Beer Summit” – by which I don’t mean a photo-op with these anti-legalization leaders, but a true meeting with them to show a real willingness to understand their concerns rather than a petulant demand that others believe him rather like the person who insists, “I said I was sorry and that should be enough for you to like me now.”
and, second, some way to make a commitment more binding, or a new approach that communicates more than just “believe me that I’m on your side now.” What would that be? I’ve suggested in the past that Americans could be given standing to sue employers who hire illegals, using the model of ADA enforcement. I also suggested, more outlandishly, to be sure, that Rubio make a binding commitment to these anti-legalization leaders, something that creates personal hardship, legally-enforceable, even. A pledge that if he violates his word and signs a bill that anti-legalizationists oppose, he will sign over his future personal speech-making wealth, to organizations helping displaced workers.
Now, I don’t imagine this is going to happen, but Rubio can’t make this issue go away by ignoring it and repeating his stump speech lines.
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