Is it the end of the line for Maduro?

Eh, probably not.

Look, reports on basket-case Venezuela, such as this one on CNN, appear on a daily basis now.  There are shortages of food, medicine, and, most famously, toilet paper.  There are rolling blackouts because one dam provides 75% of the country’s electricity, and this dam is operating far below capacity due to both low water levels and mismanagement and corruption.  Supermarkets are being looted, and crime is soaring.  Inflation is predicted to reach 700% year-over-year.  According to CNN, a recent poll saw 70% of the country agreeing that Maduro should go.

And that, despite the wealth of the country in oil and other natural resources.

The Atlantic, on Thursday, had a piece detailing some of what Venezuelans face, and the underlying reasons, and explicitly uses the label “collapse” to describe the situation, and PJ Media also gave a convenient summary of the situation, with further details on the blackouts here.

Politically, the country is under the control of President Nicolas Maduro; the legislature is now controlled by the opposition party, but they don’t seem to be able to impact any of Maduro’s economic policies.  Their current effort is a recall petition drive; there is a real possibility to recall Maduro from office, though, unless they succeed this year, there will not be a new election but Maduro will simply be replaced by his vice president.

So what next?  From the vantage point of outsiders, and looking very a-historically, it sure does look like, any day now, Maduro will be leaving in disgrace, much like any one of the Warsaw Pact country’s leaders, when the communist regimes fell one by one, with nary a shot being fired.  Or perhaps a civil war will break out, with refugees streaming out of the country as pro- and anti-Maduro forces battle it out.

But before getting too excited about this, look at this Business Insider summary of 10 other hyperinflation instances in the recent past. Zimbabwe’s inflation spiraled so out of control that an inflation rate figure is meaningless, and this ultimately resulted in the US dollar and South African rand being the currencies in use.  But Mugabe is still in power.  And Brazil’s hyperinflation continued for 14 years before it was resolved with new stabilization measures and a handover to a civilian government.  Other countries have had shortages for years upon years — Cubans are, and Soviets were, accustomed to waiting in line for generations.

And consider the site Venezuelanalysis.com, which I landed on in a google search.  It gives the regime’s point of view, according to which the country’s economic problems are due to sabotage from the right-wing opposition and from the United States, without which they’d be doing just fine.  For instance, “Venezuelans March for May Day as Maduro Raises Minimum Wage by 30%” had this to say:

“We face the recall for various reasons, including the economic crisis, exhaustion of the rentier model, and the economic war,” explained Commerce Minister Jesus Faria, referring to the process for a recall referendum that was initiated last week and has already collected over 2.3 million signatures in favor of Maduro’s ouster.

“The opposition is taking advantage of these factors and have every constitutional right to do so, but we are ready for them, in the streets, in the electoral arena, even in armed struggle,” he told Venezuelanalysis.

Others attributed the present crisis to sabotage by the private sector and called for renewed labor militancy and workers’ control.

“The crisis comes from the businessmen. The only way to combat the economic war is to take over the factories and put them at the service of the people,” Maria Fernanda Romero told Venezuelanalysis. . . .

Speaking to a mass of supporters outside Miraflores presidential palace, Maduro confirmed a Saturday night announcement that his government would increase the national minimum wage and pensions by 30%– sorely-needed measures in a country estimated to reach 700% inflation by year end, according to the IMF.

In response to right-wing efforts to depose him, the leftist head of state called on workers to rise up in a “popular constitutional rebellion” in the event of his ouster and initiate an “indefinite general strike until victory is won”.

So, yes, Maduro opponents could indeed succeed in their recall election, and Maduro could leave power in a peaceful transition.  Or the military or others could force Maduro out.  Or there could be a civil war, and that civil war could go on for a month, or a year, or a decade.

But there probably won’t be.

We get so wrapped up in rhetoric of “The Right Side of History” that we fail to recognize that even situations that seem to be crises, and impending collapses, can go on for quite some time, and that unpopular rulers of whatever kind can hold onto power for all manner of reasons.  So am I going to place a bet on how long Maduro will stay in power?  No.  And neither should you.

image:  100 million marks, from 1923.  own photograph.