The Hindsight Fallacy — Andy’s Follies # 33

The Hindsight Fallacy — Andy’s Follies # 33 April 24, 2019
The hindsight fallacy can be a toxic to making good decisions.

In 2016 I said Donald Trump would win the election. No, really. If you go back on the Naked Diner Podcast episodes you will hear me saying it. And you’ll also hear cohost Jack and our guests tell me I’m an idiot.

(Note: I realize I can be an idiot and right at the same time, thank you very much.)

The reasons I gave ranged from the scientific to the not so scientific. Professor Alan Lichtman has an algorithm even an idiot like myself can understand. There are 13 variables that predict who will be president. If you’re interested in taking a gander, here’s the link.

I’m sure we’ll be revisiting Professor Lichtman’s equation as 2020 gets closer.

After the election I said I predicted Trump winning. That is true. However, there were moments during the election when I wasn’t 100% sure. (The grab them buy the pussy incident comes to mind.)

This is where the hindsight bias comes in.

I distinctly remember saying Trump was going to win. I’ve been trying to avoid is saying I knew for sure. My friends, my heart wants me to say it. It not only feeds my ego, but it makes me feel the world is a predictable place.

But being right is more important than feeding my ego and swaddling my insecurities in a fallacy blanket.

Let’s take a gander at the comic.

As usual, Patrons of mine can see the bonus panel.


I hope you enjoyed the comic!

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