A new report out by FOX News shows five Democratic candidates polling higher than President Trump. Newsweek reports:
The latest poll, conducted between June 9 and June 12, found Democratic frontrunners — former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders — each garnering 49 percent of the vote in a hypothetical head-to-head against the president.
Biden fared slightly better against Trump, beating the incumbent by ten percentage points, while Sanders had a slightly smaller gap of nine points over the president.
The other three candidates are Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg.
Now look, if you’re here for a rally the Democratic troops post, well, this isn’t it. There are many posts like that on Laughing in Disbelief. This isn’t one of them.
Instead, I’m going to write about why three people on the above list will never be able to win in 2020.
You may be saying, “You’re just a comedy writer (and that’s using the term loosely). What do you know?”
I’m glad you asked. If you were listening to the Naked Diner podcast in 2015 – 2016 you would have heard me say Donald Trump was going to win. And then you would’ve heard guests say I was an idiot and wrong. If you read some of the more obscure blog posts here on Laughing in Disbelief (no one reads the serious pieces, and that’s why I don’t write serious posts regularly), then you have known my thoughts on why he won, Scott Adams analysis on Trump’s speaking style, and Dr. Allan Lichtman’s analysis on how candidates win the Presidency.
If you were part of the back channel of Patheos nonreligious bloggers you would’ve seen my Electoral College map the day of the election and how I called the election for Trump.
So that’s what I know.
And before getting into the three candidates, let me say my favorite is on this list. What many people can’t parse out are their emotions and the data. That’s the cardinal sin of analysts. I’m making a good faith effort at it.
Let’s talk about those three candidates.
1. Elizabeth Warren
Never. Ever. Going. To. Happen.
I have seen
good great candidates from Massachusetts get slaughtered by Republicans. These were intelligent and thoughtful individuals who understood policy and would’ve made great leaders
Mike Dukakis ran the state for years. He was effective and knew what he was doing. But he didn’t look good in a tank. He couldn’t connect on a midbrain level with everyday voters. When you get asked, “Would you still support the death penalty if your wife was raped and then killed?” you have be angry. Visibly.
And John Kerry? I saw him walk out on stage at the Democratic convention and give that salute and thought Oh, we’re just giving the election to the Republicans. Very good. Excellent.
The problem with Democratic candidates from Massachusetts is that they are too smart. OK, it isn’t that they’re too smart. Bill Clinton was brilliant. But he understood that wasn’t enough.
2. Bernie SandersI’ll be honest. I’m voting for Sanders. He’s never going to win. Oh, he could win against Trump in the general election. A lot of his voters would come from Trump. Angry white dudes who want change. It’s basic tribalism. All those states Trump won by a low amount and full of angry white dudes would go Sanders.
But he isn’s going to get to the general election.
Because Bernie Sanders doesn’t have what it takes to kill the Democratic Party. Trump strangled the old GOP. He did it with his bare hands on national TV.
He doesn’t have it.
Maybe because he isn’t a sociopath like Trump.
Regardless, it doesn’t matter. He isn’t getting past the primaries.
3. Joe Biden
Losers lose. Winners win.
As my old behavioral psychology professor told me “The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.”
Joe ran twice.
Lost both times.
The man may have a lot of reasons why he should win.
But winners win. Losers lose.
Andrew Hall is the author of Laughing in Disbelief. Besides writing a blog no one reads, co-hosting the Naked Diner, he wrote a book no one reads, Vampires, Lovers, and Other Strangers. There are rumors his stand-up is funny. When he isn’t shouting at the darkness on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook he is showing his kids how not to behave. Oh, he’s reading through the Bible and talking to interesting people on YouTube.