The economic downturn is in full swing. As I’m writing this, the Dow is 19,869. All of the gains we saw in Trump’s Presidency are gone.
How bad is the economic outlook? Well, you can tell Republicans think it’s bad. When they’re expanding the social safety net to include paid time off for workers as well as
universal basic income a $1,000 check for every American, then they see the writing on the wall. And that writing is Trump winning a second term is nigh impossible if the economy is in recession.
I ran a highly unscientific poll on my Twitter account and asked this question Is the economic downturn going to keep Trump from getting a second term?
Most people said yes.
— Andrew Hall (@LaughPurgatory) March 17, 2020
As some of you know, I predicted Trump winning in 2016. I never believed Sanders (who I voted for in the primary) or Warren would win the nomination this time around. I also said Joe Biden would never be President. In fact, I’ve had money on Trump winning for months.
It looks like I could lose my wager.
Professor Allan Lichtman wrote The Keys To The White House A Surefire Guide To Predicting The Next Election. He co-developed a system that has accurately predicted elections since 1984. It turns out there are 13 variables that can accurately predict who is going to win the Presidency. One of the major keys is whether the economy is not in recession during the election.
Will Donald Trump win in 2020? If COVID-19 wasn’t a factor, I’d say yes. Before this black swan event, Trump was on track for drubbing the Democrats a second time. However, by November the country will probably be in recession and many voters will still be hurting. If the past is predictive of the future, Trump should lose.
There are two things Trump has in his favor. One, is that the man knows how to win elections. (And for the sake of argument winning means winning by cheating.) He demolished his Republican competitors in the primaries in 2016. Two, is the Democratic Party. I’ve seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
What do you think? Is the economic downturn dooming Trump’s reelection chances?