- This is a victory for the Iranian people and by the Iranian people. I’m glad because we made this happen. We went to the streets and protested. We forced them to let Rouhani be elected. We forced them to accept to deal with the west. We endured all the hardships. We went through fire and ice and it is our victory. I’m reading the deal for like the tenth time. All economic sanctions will be lifted. And with Rouhani’s powerful economic team – who have already reversed the economic disasters – soon Ahmadinejad years will be no more than a nightmare. Now my students will not have to see the bleak and dark years I have seen. Their life will not be defined by trauma and fear. I’m so glad to be alive and witness history. Rouhani acknowledged that in his speech addressing the nation.
- Yes, this DOES stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. Only one facility will enrich Uranium. Its purity will never go above 3.7%. Fordo and Arak (suspect facilities) will change functionality. The IAEA will be able to monitor Iran’s actions thoroughly. It will be physically impossible for Iran to build a bomb. The deal also meets the weird demands made by Khamenei. It’s truly win-win, and expertly crafted.
- Iranian far-right say Iran has given up too much in this deal. Hossein Shariatmadari who’s possibly the most loathsome extremist I know of has said “We gave up the saddled horse and they gave us the torn tether instead”. American and Israeli right-wing says Iran hasn’t given up enough. I wonder how the same text can be interpreted so widely differently, it’s not even a scripture. (Spoiler: the enemies of the deal are lying or very ignorant).
- This is a deal. Don’t be mistaken by buzzwords like “framework”, “outline”, or “parameters of a deal”. This is a deal. They’re not just calling it that because Khamenei wanted a deal in only one stage and not two, but originally March was supposed to be when the political deal happened and then in July the technical deal. This is the political deal rebranded. It’s much more important. This is a massive victory. And it is a historical.
- This is a victory for Rouhani and the reformists. Khamenei did not block the deal while he could have, but I sincerely think he’s unhappy and he wouldn’t have if it wasn’t the pressure from the Iranian people. People went into the streets to clebrate the deal. Khamenei had given up already And if anyone but Rouhani was president this would have been very difficult or impossible. Simplistic readings of Iranian policy might not understand this but this truly is Rouhani’s achievement mainly.
- This is the first step for Rouhani. In a speech addressed to Iranians after the deal, he said that this victory was a vindication of his pragmatic politics, that if we have cold relations with a country we must make it warmer, and if we are enemies with a country we must become friends. While conservatives were all emphatic “this is a nuclear deal and absolutely nothing else”. But Rouhani will push to make rational diplomacy dominant. And he might succeed. This is going to affect the upcoming parliamentary election much to Rouhani’s favor. Also Rouhani will be reelected with like a trillion percent of the votes.
- The agreement is going to be ratified by the security council. It won’t be between two countries at all. So the congress oes not play a role and it will be internationally binding. If congress refuses to honor the deal USA will be considered a rogue state and since EU won’t coopeate their sanctons will be meaningless anyway. As you can see negotiators are much shrewder than what we all thought. They have tken congress out of equation. The congress can sabotage things until then, if they can get beyond Obama’s veto, but the next president won’t be able to make it null with the strike of a pen. (Sorry, Tom Cotton).
- Iran and US will accuse each other of lying in the coming days. Truth is this is a win-win for both sides, but also both sides have given up huge parts of what they would ideally want. So Obama and co. will have to shine the turd for Republicans and Iranians for the conservatives, but it won’t mean much, and it’s just the sides interpreting things to their advantage.
- Even if the deal is defeated in the next coming months, this is still a great development. People will most probably blame either Republicans or Iranian conservatives, but the energy is already injected into the society.
- This might have very positive effects on human rights issues too. Listen, it’s as simple as this. A stronger Rouhani + more hopeful and energized people = more chances of actual reform through public activism and lobbying from Rouhani.
Overall: I’m happy, I’m hopeful, it was a historic event, and now the tides might turn to Iran’s better future much more possibly.
Image credit: MEHR News Agency