Bias and Bayes’ Theorem in History

Bias and Bayes’ Theorem in History October 12, 2012

Regular commenter Ian has posted two more entries on his blog which relate to the use of Bayes’ Theorem in assessing historical probability, in response to Richard Carrier’s advocacy of the use of Bayesian reasoning.

One is entitled “Error in Bayes’ Theorem” and the other “Say What I Want To Hear!

"I would. Not everyone would."

Shielding Ourselves from the Truth
"jekylldoc said: From there we can proceed to dramatically interesting statements, like "I don't believe ..."

Shielding Ourselves from the Truth
"The most important step is probably to give up claims of authority for our reports ..."

Shielding Ourselves from the Truth
"good to hear from you again, Nick."

Shielding Ourselves from the Truth

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  • Computer programmers have long captured the essence of this problem in the catch-phrase: “Garbage In – Garbage Out”