This is going to be a difficult election to predict at least with a lot of precision. Questions I have going into today:
1) How will the large numbers of absentee ballots be handled? In some places they are transferred to the polling place on election day and included in the precinct counts. Other places hold them. Some places allow upwards of two weeks for them to make their way via the postal service. Without knowing the answer to this question, there will not be much value to knowing the number of ballots cast at various polling spots and comparing them to last year, because like items may not have been compared.
2) Much has been made of “Likely Voter” models showing an Obama victory. Likely voter models tend to assume turnout similar to previous elections. Preliminary indications and people’s “moods” seem to indicate that past turnout won’t be all the determinative in today’s turnout. As of today, Gallup’s registered voter tracking poll shows a 53-40 Obama victory over McCain. Gallup’s likely voter model has Obama beating McCain 53-42. While within the margin of error, an extra 2% points makes places like Missouri and North Carolina probably pushed to Obama. Conversely, if turnout isn’t as high, places like Ohio and Florida move closer to safe McCain status. (BTW, please don’t be distracted by Gallup’s actual numbers. The point here was to compare likely and registered voters. All polls show a wider electorate being favorable to Obama.)
3) Related to 2, most likely McCain will have received more votes than any Republican presidential candidate in history, regardless of the outcome tonight.
4) Indicators one should reach for the hard liquor:
a) South Carolina isn’t called by 9:00 EST.
b) Florida is called for McCain at 10:00 EST and neither Pennsylvania or Ohio have been called for Obama.
Final Prediction:
Obama: 414 (includes 2 NE electoral votes.)
McCain: 124
Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In