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Welp, here it is, and here is where I will be parked in a state of increasing drunkenness into the day/night. I’ll do my best to respond to reader questions in the comments and on twitter.
We start with good news: 538 has Clinton at almost 72% to win the election, and that is on an upward trend. The upward trend is important is because that percentage was gleaned from pulls that came in last night, which means they where collected before the FBI cleared Clinton the second time. I reckon in reality Hillary’s chances are a notch or two higher.
So here’s my ideal scenario and why. First, Florida is always one of the first states to report in and Donald Trump needs it like a vampire needs blood. If Trump loses Florida it’s over, and although it’s a coin flip (Hillary is 55.5% to win it according to 538), early voting shows an absurdly huge surge of Hispanic voters. Not only are more Hispanics voting than in previous years, 36% of them are first time voters. This favors Clinton. A lot. And if that trend continues across the country it’s going to be a very good night.
Second, let’s assume Hillary wins. How she wins matters. If it’s 270-268 in the Electoral College then Republicans know they can fuck around, be obstructionist on principle, and do stupid shit like block her Supreme Court nominees for four straight years while paying only a minimal price (if any price) at the ballot box next time around. However, if Hillary wins in a landslide that gives Hillary the political capital to do a lot more (think more liberal SCOTUS nominations).
So please, for the love of teddy bears and cute adorable kittens, move your asses. Get out and vote. Oh, you’re in a red state? Tough shit, go stand in line. Even if the GOP wins by less in states they’re accustomed to winning (looking at you, Texas), that contributes to what Hillary can do after the election if she wins it. My family cast three votes for Hillary in redder-than-Trump’s-face-after-he-loses Kansas. You may not flip a state blue, but don’t let anybody tell you that you’re not making a difference. You are.
What’s more, plenty of research shows that the more purple a state gets, the more the minority party feels inspired, resulting in an exponential change in the state. So there’s another reason to go stand in line to vote wherever you are. So take your smart phone, download Fruit Ninja, and go enjoy yourself for a bit until you can perform your civic duty.
Fuck, I’m ready. C’mon Florida! C’mon America! Don’t fuck this up.
If you need some humor to get you through the day, Seth Meyers show from last night captured the end of the election beautifully:
Last night Trump hinted at a “big announcement” in New Hampshire. That announcement was that he was supported by New England Patriots coach Bill Bellichick supported him and that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady voted for him. However, this morning Sports Illustrated reported that Brady’s wife says otherwise.
If you want to vote, but aren’t registered, here are the twelve states that allow same-day registration:
REMINDER: If you aren’t registered to vote, these states allow same-day registration!
— American Atheists (@AmericanAtheist) November 8, 2016
I think she’s just writing “Somebody please help me.”
He’s just makin’ sure. pic.twitter.com/ZfWWqehVMg
— Scott Johnson (@scottjohnson) November 8, 2016
Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit in Nevada, where early voting has put him at a larger disadvantage than his campaign was anticipating:
Donald Trump’s lawyers filed a lawsuit in Nevada claiming that polling locations were kept open “two hours beyond the designated closing time.” Trump lawyers are asking for relief in case “the election of presidential electors from the State of Nevada is contested.”
So here’s what happened. Last night the polls were supposed to close at 8pm (Nevada has voting on Monday & Tuesday, like some states). They remained open until 9pm because as long as you are in line by 7pm then, by law, they have to let you in to vote. That took until, wait for it, 9pm. There’s no evidence that people who arrived after 7pm were allowed to vote.
Nothing illegal happened. It’s just the Trump campaign getting desperate because they know if they lose Florida or North Carolina that they absolutely must have Nevada (and many other states). This is frivolous and pathetic. Thankfully, people on the ground are tweeting that the judge is not having any of this shit. Glorious.
In other hilarious news, reports are saying that the two lawyers who filed the suit on Trump’s behalf both specialize in construction law. lawl.
And Trump’s request to have those late ballots isolated has been summarily denied:
Breaking: Nevada state judge denies #Trump campaign request to isolate ballots from 4 early voting sites, can appeal to State Supreme Ct
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) November 8, 2016
Do not pass go, get wrecked.
Here’s more on exactly how Judge Sturnam reacted:
The judge, Gloria Sturnam, denied the Trump campaign’s request for a court order after it had already received an informal confirmation that the information about poll workers at the sites relevant to the case would be preserved.
“I am not going to issue any order. I am not going to do it,” Sturnam said.
The Trump campaign lawsuit was filed against Joe P. Gloria, registrar of voters in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. It claimed that he kept certain polling locations, some in predominately Latino areas, open for “two hours beyond the designated closing time” on Friday, the last night of early voting.
The lawsuit claimed that at four Las Vegas early voting sites, including the Hispanic grocery store Cardenas, voters were allowed to vote on Friday, even if they arrived at the location after 8 p.m., when early voting officially closed.
The Trump campaign in the complaint requested that the early vote ballots cast at the locations in question not be “co-mingled or interspersed” with other ballots while the issue is litigated.
The judge, at Tuesday’s hearing, was visibly frustrated by the Trump campaign’s request, particularly as it appeared the campaign had not first gone through the administrative route of asking the Nevada secretary of state to look into the issue.
“Are [the votes] not to be counted?” she said. “What are you saying? Why are we here? You want to preserve the poll data? That is offensive to me. Why don’t we wait to see if the secretary of state wants to do this?”
Ouch. I can’t imagine the actual problem is that the voters are Latino. Perish the thought.
South Carolina Senator, Republican Lindsey Graham, did not vote for Donald Trump:
I voted @Evan_McMullin for President. I appreciate his views on a strong America and the need to rebuild our military. #3
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) November 8, 2016
On the one hand, grats to him for putting sanity over his party’s best interests. I really do admire that. On the other hand, does he mean our military? Ours? The one that’s more funded than the next ten biggest militaries on earth combined? That military?
Is he tripping balls?
No, he’s not tripping balls, he’s just pandering to people who don’t like to incorporate data into their decisions (read: Republicans).
I swear to not-god, I pledge my undying allegiance to the first major candidate who says, “Y’know, we can afford to spend 10% less on our military and really invest in education/infrastructure.”