Bias and Bayes’ Theorem in History

Regular commenter Ian has posted two more entries on his blog which relate to the use of Bayes’ Theorem in assessing historical probability, in response to Richard Carrier’s advocacy of the use of Bayesian reasoning.

One is entitled “Error in Bayes’ Theorem” and the other “Say What I Want To Hear!

"And don't you find it a bit suspicious, following Jesus' climactic temple tantrum triumph at ..."

Mythicists Shock Bart Ehrman, Set Off ..."
"Sometimes the best we can manage is "implies" and "may have." Hence, postmodernism. Just the ..."

Mythicists Shock Bart Ehrman, Set Off ..."
"Any time a question contains two “implieds” and a “may have,” I suspect that there ..."

Mythicists Shock Bart Ehrman, Set Off ..."
"I don't really mind when 'day 0' is. Just...if we colonise Mars or something, please ..."

Before Common Calendar

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  • http://timebottle.weebly.com/ Beau Quilter

    Computer programmers have long captured the essence of this problem in the catch-phrase: “Garbage In – Garbage Out”