Immigration to European countries has provoked many negative reactions. Many whose families have lived in Europe for generations feel that immigration is eroding traditional cultures, lifeways, and identity. This discontent has an unmistakable religious valence to it, for those opposed to the influx of immigrants are usually especially against the fact that most of these immigrants are Muslims. Hence, people warn of a “Muslim occupation” or “new Muslim conquest of Europe.” But is there such a Muslim invasion of Europe?
In this article, we will assess this question on the strictly continental level before addressing individual European countries in separate articles. To do so with data, I will use a rather simple method to measure whether the Muslim population of Europe really is growing so fast as to call it an “invasion.” While not all who oppose or are at least distrustful of the influx of Muslim immigration would call it an invasion, such a claim captures both the historical legacy of armed conflict between Christians and Muslims and the severe skepticism that Muslims and Christians can build a just, peaceful society together.
An Introduction to the Data
The data that we will examine comes from a recently released report published by the Pew Research Center. Their report shares an aggregate of over 2,700 censuses and surveys. This considerable amount of data offers two snapshots of European religious demographics on the continental level in 2010 and 2020.
The groups measured in this data are:
- Christians
- Religiously unaffiliated
- Muslims
- Jews
- Hindus
- Buddhists
- Other
To determine whether there is a Muslim “invasion” of Europe, we will consider groups that increased in size from 2010 to 2020. Then, we will compare the growth of Muslims to the growth of other such groups. If Muslims have a higher growth rate than other religious groups, then the claims of “invasion” might have some empirical reality, yet still be theoretically wrong. But if Muslims do not have a higher growth rate than other religious groups, then the claims of a Muslim invasion lack statistical credibility.
Groups that Decreased
From 2010 to 2020, only Christians and Jews decreased in population. In 2010, there were around 553.6 million Christians in Europe. Christians decreased by 48.5 million from 2010 to 2020. Christians went from being 74.6% of the population to 67.1%.
In 2010, there were around 1.4 million Jews in Europe. In 2020, the Jewish population decreased to 1.3 million. 0.19% of Europe’s population was Jewish in 2010, as opposed to 0.17% in 2020. In contrast, every other religious group grew between 2010 and 2020.
Groups that Increased
First off, it is worth noting that the overall European population grew from 2010 to 2020. From 741.7 million to 753.0 million. Muslims, the religiously unaffiliated, Hindus, Buddhists, and other religions all grew as well even as Christians and Jews decreased. We will examine these groups one by one.
I. Muslim Population Growth
This is the demographic change most relevant to the claims of Muslim invasion. In 2010, there were 39.3 million Muslims living in Europe, while in 2020, the number had risen to 45.5 million. As a proportion of the total populations, Muslims went from making up 5.3% of Europe’s population to 6.0%.
II. Unaffiliated Population Growth
However, the most significant demographic change was seen not among Muslims, but among the religiously unaffiliated. The unaffiliated made up 18.7% of Europe’s population in 2010, and 25.3% in 2020. In hard numbers, this group changed from 138.7 to 190.3 million.
III. Additional Group Growth
The rest of the religious groups grew, too. Hindus went from 1.7 to 2.2 million. Buddhists from 2.0 to 2.5 million. And other religions grew from 5.0 to 6.0 million.
A Muslim Invasion?
And now we arrive at the data analysis. Christians remained the largest group in Europe from 2010 to 2020. But the Christian population also fell by 8.8%. The second largest group was the religiously unaffiliated, which grew by 37.20%. As it turns out, this was the highest rate of growth of all religious groups that had increased in population.
But where do Muslims in Europe rank in terms of their growth rate? If there were really a Muslim invasion, we’d expect that they would rank second, or at least third. But instead, they rank last.
Following the unaffiliated growth rate, Hindus grew by 29.4%, Buddhists by 25.0%, other religions by 16.7%, and finally, Muslims by 15.8%.
Conclusion
We have surveyed European religious change from two snapshots, 2010 and 2020. Given the vehement character of the rhetoric coming from opponents of Muslim immigration, one might expect a sharper increase in the Muslim population than what we see in the data.
Of course, the dynamics may be different in particular countries, such as Norway, Sweden, the UK, or France. We shall examine these countries in future articles.
We can conclude that since Muslims in Europe grew by 6.2 million from 2010 to 2020, their growth was significant. But this growth was also the least significant among groups that increased in this time period, measuring by growth rates. Growth rates, in my opinion, is a fair measure since there is such a massive difference in population size between Muslims and the unaffiliated, and between Muslims and other religious minorities.
Those who are spreading the idea that Muslim immigration is taking Europe by storm are focusing on the wrong demographic. It is not Islam that is growing rapidly in Europe, but religious disaffiliation. When talking heads scapegoat communities and label them “invaders,” the deeper phenomena are almost always obscured and missed.
Those who are concerned about Christianity in Europe should look not to Islam, but to the reason why people are either leaving religion (which in Europe means Christianity the majority of the time) or staying away from religion. Scapegoating one’s Muslim neighbors for the decline of Christianity, in other words, is quite the plank in the eye.
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