POLL: Majority Are Looking for a Post-Trump 2020

POLL: Majority Are Looking for a Post-Trump 2020 November 14, 2018

His numbers are bigly.

They just may not be in the direction he would like them to be. The latest Monmouth University Poll is not exactly embracing President Trump, and if this climate holds until 2020, the Trumplican Party could be staring down the barrel of epic defeat.

Among those things the poll explored, there was the question of whether the nation would be better with somebody else at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The majority polled think so.

According to the numbers, 36 percent of Americans polled are fine with Trump in office through the 2020 election.

On the other hand, 59 percent think it’s time to cut bait and try somebody else.

Sixteen percent of Republicans said they would rather have a new president, according to the poll, compared to 92 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of independents said the same.

Trump’s approval rating has consistently hovered in the low 40 percent range in Monmouth’s polling. This month’s survey found 43 percent of respondents approve of the president, while 49 percent disapprove. Those figures are largely unchanged from an August poll.

And yes. I get it, We hear all the time about how beloved Trump is, but that’s pretty much only among his MAGA cult fanatics. Democrats, Independents, Never Trump conservatives, and some of the more mainstream Republicans see the damage done to the party and the nation, and they’re feeling the need to cancel the reality TV presidency, come the 2020 election.

Politics being as it is, we can’t overlook that for Democrats, at least, it’s not really so much a case of “saving the nation” as it is their own quest for control of the White House. That’s just the way it is with our current political climate.

For the rest of the voting public, however, it is a tangible concern connected to Trump’s inability to control his impulses, his devotion to foreign dictators, and his disregard for our laws or anything related to sound governance.

Replacing Trump, while politics-as-usual for the Democrats, is high priority for some others, who see another four years of the clown show as unhealthy for the nation.

So who would replace him?

Of course, Democrats have a growing list of potentials.

Among those who are could make up a crowded field of candidates are Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as well as former Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).

I wouldn’t vote for any of these people.

Trump has recently lashed out at WarrenBiden and others during campaign rallies and in interviews, presaging potential clashes on the 2020 campaign trail.

To be fair, Trump has been attacking these people a lot longer than just recent weeks. He’s in perpetual campaign mode, filing for reelection on the same day he was inaugurated. He’s assuming that what worked in 2016 would still work in 2020.

There has also been some talk of Trump’s former opponent, Hillary Clinton, making another run for the office.

She is the candidate who will not go away, and if Democrats are so dumb that they would allow her to be their candidate again, they don’t deserve to win.

Personally, you can count me among those conservatives that would love to see an independent conservative candidate step forward and really challenge the “Big Two.”

The poll sampled 802 American voters, from November 9 to 12, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.


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  • Marcion

    Personally, you can count me among those conservatives that would love to see an independent conservative candidate step forward and really challenge the “Big Two.”

    They tried that in 2016. His name was Evan McMullin and he got 0.53% of the vote. I don’t see someone like Jeff Flake doing any better, especially now that Trump has completed his takeover of the Republican party. There’s no constituency for anti-Trump conservatism anymore.

  • GotMyLoveGlassesOn

    So we try again.

  • IllinoisPatriot

    I agree that Evan McMullin was not the best candidate. He was quite liberal, last minute, not on all ballots, no real campaign, and proposed by a group of what perceive to be liberal Republicans – ones that I would not vote for under normal circumstances.

    However, he DID get a respectable showing when you consider what he had going against him.

    OTOH: The results of 2018 can be read to indicate that lessons were learned by the voters from 2016 and applied in 2018:
    1. It has been noted that 2018 elections had a much higher turnout and vote-share outcome for the Libertarian party than in past elections. This was read as an (insignificant) “victory” for Libertarians – especially after several libertarian Republicans lost their elections. Where did these votes come from all of a sudden ?
    2. It has been noted that Trump only “won” 9 of some 21 Republican candidates he backed for office.
    3. It has been noted that prior to the election, many conservative and anti-Trump Republicans in Congress resigned or announced they would not run in 2018, thereby opening up additional Republican seats – especially in the HOR. Whether they found working with Trump untenable or decided their chances for reelection were untenable is being studiously left unaddressed.
    4. Republicans were by-and-large not campaigning in Democrat areas trying to pick up new seats so much as they were attempting to defend seats they already held – especially in the Senate Trump needs for confirmations, treaty approvals and impeachment trial protection.
    5. Trump spent most of his campaign time making all Congressional elections about him personally.
    6. Republicans that should have won re-election by 20 or more points either lost or eked out a win by low single-digits. Where did the votes that would normally have supported Republicans go in 2018 ? Examples include Ted Cruz (should have been 20+ points, was actually about 2.6, Marsh Blackburn should have won by 15-20 points, won by single-digits. It was only in deep, deep Trump areas that Trumpian candidates won with any significant margin (the dead pimp candidate that won in Nevada for example).
    7. Democrat turnout in this mid-term was not much (if any) higher than in previous mid-terms. This implies the shift in voter preference and turnout was more pronounced in the Republican base. Where did the Republican voters go ?

    Given the above, it is clear to me that because of Trump’s actions and rhetoric, many Republicans in 2018 decided to either not vote, to vote for Democrats or to vote Libertarian as likely the most viable 3rd-party on the ballot. There appears to have been a very wide-spread decision to abandon the Republican party that has abandoned conservative voters. This would account for the low Republican turnout, the somewhat higher-than normal Democrat turnout and the record-setting Libertarian results.

    Now why did so many Republicans choose not to vote for Trump despite the number of Trump rallies and the constant repetition of “successes” by Republican operatives ? Why did the tax cuts not cause an overwhelming flood of support for Trump Republicans ? Was it the tariffs and trade war perhaps ? The fact that as a result of the trade war, the Dow Jones & S&P are down, the economy is losing steam and jobs are down ? Could it be the unfavorable trade imbalance caused by the trade war or Trump’s decision to raise spending and “offset” his trade-war losses with bailouts for selected industries that seem to be based in Trump-friendly areas of the country ?

    What about the bi-annual fear campaign run by the Republicans to scare their base into line ? Why did the Republican base not fall into line in 2018 like they have in the past in fear of “the Democrat agenda” ? Could it be that Trump and Republicans passed the Democrat agenda in 2017/2018 ? Funding PP. Funding and extending DACA. Making Obamacare permanent instead of repealing it as promised. Raising spending and debt while cutting taxes – a sure sign of liberal fiscal insanity.

    The 2018 campaign season was remarkably short on conservative agenda items and long on fear-mongering, name-calling and Trump-worship. Given Trump’s antics and childish behavior as well as the increasing number of lawsuits against him for corruption in office, why would voters with integrity or a desire for honorable government rush to support Trump or his party with Trump making the election all about him instead of about the issues ?

    I’m sure we will hear much different spin from the Republican consultants – likely using words like “treason”, “betrayed by voters”, “unpatriotic voters”, “Trump-haters”, etc. The more such analyses I hear, the less likely I am to support the Republican party in the future.

    It does not necessarily require sufficient numbers for #NeverTrump to win elections vs Republicans – only that enough Republicans abandon the existing party and withhold support to allow the Democrats to win elections until the Republicans leadership chooses to start honoring their campaign promises or until conservatives get a new 3rd party that we can vote for. Conservative Republicans tried voting for conservative candidates within the Republican party over the past decade and only succeeded in giving Republicans control of Congress while having our own values and priorities mocked, ignored and rejected. The new conservative-voter push appears to be changing toward abandoning the GOP and either voting 3rd-party, creating a new, truly-conservative party, or voting against Trump and his increasingly-dangerous lackeys – sometimes all of the above.

    Given the lack of backbone and principle that pre-dated Trumpism, I feel it unlikely that conservatives will remain in the Republican party now that the GOP voter exodus that appears to have started with McMullin in 2016 has been shown not to have been a single-election anomaly.

  • chemical

    Good analysis.

    It does not necessarily require sufficient numbers for #NeverTrump to win elections vs Republicans – only that enough Republicans abandon the existing party and withhold support to allow the Democrats to win elections until the Republicans leadership chooses to start honoring their campaign promises or until conservatives get a new 3rd party that we can vote for.

    FINALLY someone else recognizes that winning elections is more about getting your voters to the polls more than anything else. To be honest, from the outside it looks like the GOP may finally start to crack a bit — I’m used to seeing conservatives vote in lock step and liberals running around like a bunch of cats at a laser light show.

  • chemical

    From Susan:

    Among those who are could make up a crowded field of candidates are Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as well as former Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).

    I find it interesting you listed a bunch of US Senators here, I’d like to see Dems nominate a governor. Harris, in particular, hit the Senate around the same time Trump hit the White House, meaning she really can’t point to specific legislation she fought to get passed. A Democratic governor could, however, point to the state they’re governing as a success story.

  • TinnyWhistler

    That’s a reasonable strategy, though I have a very violent gut reaction to it as someone who lives in NY state.

  • IllinoisPatriot

    The GOP has been fracturing for a while. The last big push to elect conservatives and to “fix” the GOP from “the inside” through the polls was shot down in flames at the convention of 2016 and has since been drawn, quartered, burned, and the ashes scattered to the wind. A stake was driven through the heart of any belief that conservatives have any remaining influence in the GOP when McConnell & McCarthy were re-elected to lead the party in the Senate & HOR for the next Congress.

    I believe we will see more and more conservative support of the GOP falling away over future elections as the GOP “leaders” continues to turn the party toward Trumpism and Democrat priorities and actually start passing Democrat wish-list items like permanent DACA and single-payer healthcare. The sign that this is occuring will be increased Libertarian party voter share until an actual 3rd (conservative, federalist) party becomes available whose goal is to return the federal government to the chains of the US Constitution where it can and must be contained.

    It will not take many more people fleeing the GOP for the GOP voter numbers to sink below the threshold of being able to win elections. Just look at 2018 – despite Trump’s campaigning and as much fear of Democrat control of Congress as the GOP could gin up, the GOP almost lost Texas and Tenn, two of the reddest states in the nation. That drop from 20+ points Cruz SHOULD have won reelection by and the 2.6 points he DID win by tells me that conservatives have abandoned him because of his new-found approval of Trump’s actions, rhetoric and childishness.

  • IllinoisPatriot

    As far as I can tell, there are no “successful” Democrat governors.

    … and very few successful Republican governors (Gov Abbott of Texas comes to mind because of his state’s growing economy, but I cannot think of any others that are not mired in scandal or corruption or general lack of effectiveness – including my own outgoing Bruce Rauner.

  • chemical

    I’d agree on all counts. The way I see political parties in the USA, is that there are a bunch of different factions that kind of overlap within both the GOP and Democrats, and not all the factions like each other. GOP had religious right, alt-right, Reagan conservatives, neocons, industrialists, etc. (I’m not as familiar with right wing politics), but the alt-right (itself a loose collection of groups that don’t really like each other, but have extreme political positions) starting shoving some of these other groups out of the GOP. The GOP had an easier time unifying its groups — right up until 2016, where suddenly they have to kowtow to the alt-right to win elections.

    My side has secularists, anti-racists, socialists, environmentalists, union/pro-labor, and progressives. The anti-racists are the ones the got Obama elected and really pushed hard to shape Democratic policy over the last few years. If it seems like liberals have been being a lot louder about racism recently, this is why. Problem with them is anti-racism isn’t a policy position on anything. “Anti-racist” doesn’t tell you what to do about healthcare, immigration, the military, or any issue facing the country. So occasionally Dem leadership throws a bone to the socialists, environmentalists, and progressives to keep them happy, but they don’t want to rock the boat that much. Because of that, we think Obama was… a pretty good president. Could have been better, but we don’t think of Obama like you think of Ronald Reagan.

    Both parties are changing. The anti-racists aren’t dictating liberal policy as much, and the socialist and progressive wings of the party is on the rise, with Ocasio-Cortez ousting Crowley, popularity of Sens. Warren and Sanders, and Beto O’Rourke (a progressive) nearly flipping one of the reddest states.

  • kokomo

    Just a reminder Obama’s poll numbers stayed in the lower 40s too.
    I love how you spin it though. Smh
    If you are going to do a poll or talk about a poll then please supply all questions asked, who and how were people choosen to poll AND how each category was weighted to get the final results. Anything else is just blowing smoke. And yes I feel that way regardless of does the article/poll. I am very knowledgeable about statistics are used to changed people’s minds by cherry picking or unevenly weighting categories/questions