Once more, a note on the death of Europe

I wrote here the other day about the sharp decline in European birthrates.

On the flight over, I noticed several articles in the 18 April 2015 issue of the Economist that, without signaling that as a theme, addressed the topic at least in passing.

Finland, for example, which faces a looming election, is the world’s most rapidly aging country.  By 2030, more than a quarter of the Finnish population will be over 65, which will put enormous burdens on the country’s pension and health-care systems — just as similar trends have done in Japan.

But other European countries face the same challenge.  By 2030, Germany will have 47 people over 65 for ever7 100 people in the workforce.  Who will pay for their pensions and health care?

Retirement ages will need to be increased, which will irritate older voters.

Immigration will have to be increased in order to find more workers, which will cause all manner of social and cultural stress — and irritate many voters.

In France, the xenophobic-tending National Front of the Le Pen family is on the rise.

In Germany, “Pegida” (an acronym for the German “Patriotic Europeans against the Islamization of the Occident”  has been rallying, and violent incidents against foreigners have been increasing.

Germany took in 200,000 seekers of asylum last year, more than any other country, a fifth of the world’s total — and that figure is expected to rise to 300,000 this year.

The mayor of Tröglitz, in the former East Germany, was forced to resign in March over this issue, faced with threats from neo-Nazis.

And yet, given its aging population and the shortage of workers, Germany desperately needs foreigners.

I was mocked on at least one message board for pointing this out, but facts are facts:  Not having children leads to shrinking populations, and shrinking populations have consequences far beyond the couple choosing not to have children.

Israel would have similar problems, given overall small Jewish family sizes, were it not for immigration.  Waves of Soviet Jews saved the country for many years.  But still, high rates of reproduction among Palestinian Arabs, coupled with low Jewish rates, pose a long-term threat to the Jewishness of Israel.  Will Israel someday have a prime minister named Muhammad?  A Palestinian friend of mine has long argued that the Palestinian motto ought to be “Make love, not war.”

Posted from Tel Aviv, Israel