At the start of year I made ten predictions. Here they are with how I think they are looking:
1. President Obama will lose his reelection. The economy dooms him. There will be ups and downs, but Mitt Romney will be President-Elect Romney.
I got the Republican nominee right. Romney is already in a tie with Obama. I am betting the race will be 52-48 Romney at this point. The electoral college will not be particularly close.
2. There will be third party talk this year, but nothing will come of it again. Together, all the third party candidates will get fewer than three percent of the vote.
The Libertarians nominated a good candidate and Ron Paul is still paul-ling around, but there is no real sign that all the “GOP” will fracture stories that we saw are real.
3. As a percentage few Evangelicals will believe this is the End of the World or vote for President Obama, but major media stories will center on Evangelicals who believe 2012 is the end of the world and the “new generation” of Evangelicals voting for Obama.
This has already happened, will happen some more, and will be as tedious each time.
4. Whatever Apple debuts this year a significant group will believe Steve Jobs had a better idea. This will continue for years. This year is the best shot for Google or Amazon to become cool as a result. Disney is dead …who will take the techno guru crown?
We are still wait and see here.
5. Another “Potter-verse” book will be announced, fandom will rejoice, but most will have moved on.
We got a new Rowling book . . . but not in the Potter-verse. This is not looking like a good bet.
6. The Euro will limp to an end with a whimper and lies advanced about economic “growth” in China will be exposed. The American economy will stagnate, but protests will increase from last year. “Occupy X” will spread.
China is now obviously dealing with political turmoil.
The Euro looks ever more dubious, but still exists.
This one looks good still, though I wish it did not.
7. Colleges will begin closing and a “free” accredited credentialing program will be announced or appear imminently on the horizon. The educational bubble will “pop” over loans and the number of students going to traditional colleges will begin a long-term decline.
This is becoming well known.
8. Alternatives to studio films and network produced content will hit a tipping point. Convergence of digital content will explode: whether it makes it or not, GBTV’s model is the future. People will begin contributing to the shows/movies they want to see made in “micro-patronage.”
I see new projects like this every day.
9. One major Western nation will descend into chaos (Spain? Italy?). Castro will die, but Cuba will not fall into chaos.
France looking like the best bet, though socialism may work for the rest of the year.
10. South America will be “cool” as Brazil and Argentina are presented as a “third way.”
This is looking good: “progressive” Argentina is the flavor of the week.
Let me add three more things to watch:
1. Europe will not muddle through and will face a second recession. If timed badly for the President, Romney will win a landslide.
2. Calls to restore the Greek monarchy will be taken seriously.
3. Catholics, Orthodox, and Evangelicals who attend Church will work more closely together leading to a major educational initiative joining all three groups in areas of common purpose.