Akin Not Stirred?

When Todd Akin this week vowed to fight on for a Missouri Senate seat, despite the media fallout from Rapegate, he was making a deliberate gamble. He thinks Claire McCaskill is a very vulnerable opponent and the storm will blow over.

He may be right on the first point. Take a look at the Real Clear Politics polling on the race. Akin had what seemed to be a very clear lead before he started mainlining shoe leather.

In the ad that he cut explaining himself to Missouri voters, Akin apologized to them specifically for his big mouth and implicitly promised not to embarrass them again.

I will make no judgement on their judgment at this point, but here’s my guess as to how Akin goes forward. He stays in the race until after the Republican National Convention and then looks at those poll numbers to see if the storm has passed — indicated by him polling within one or two points of McCaskill, on average.

If not, then Akin withdraws and we have a whole new race on our hands.

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  • Rick Marschall

    There’s always a story behind the story. People should be watching Phyllis Schlafly. Todd Akin has been nurtured by Phyllis for years. The Movement, and the party, owe MUCH to Phyllis Schlafly. A great woman. A major force, for years. I love ‘em both, really, but when the time comes that you refer to, Phyllis will be in on it.

  • Joe Peschi

    AKin may be right to stay in the race. Right now republicans are running for cover, but let us not forget that no one will ask people who they voted for come election day. Fact is Akin did not just wake up with his opinion on rape last week, he probably held this opinion and expresed his opinion in the past, and yet no one ever chalenged him on it, which obviously means that within his own ideological circle, his claims were acceptable. I think on election day, the result will be somewhat surprising. We care more about our own side of the baricade winning than we do about facts.