My 2012 Election Predictions 5 Days Out: Sandy Ruined Romney’s End Game

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As of this morning, it seems as though the election has broken Barak Obama’s way.

I’ve heard it suggested that the loser in this election will blame Sandy. If Romney loses, I think he will have a point. If Obama loses he’ll have plenty of other things on which to blame the loss. If Romney loses, he can at least say in all truthfulness that Hurricane Sandy foiled his final hope.

During the final week of this election Romney had to sell the country on his message: we need stronger leadership in the White House. The only problem is that Barack Obama is showing strong leadership during a serious natural disaster for much of the Northeast. Events on the ground fly in the face of the narrative on which Romney staked his campaign and Barack is making his best counter argument without so much as holding a campaign rally. Romney needed to be able to spend the final week making his case that Barack Obama is a weak leader. Instead, Obama has stopped campaigning and is demonstrating strong leadership (even in the opinion of Chris Christie, who is not doing his “pal” Romney any favors this week). Right now it looks like a death blow for Romney’s chances.

The best evidence that Obama has a good lead is that Fox News has the race a tie. The best evidence that it’s still going to be extremely close is that Huffington Post only has Obama at 277 sure electoral votes. The Obama lead is three – nearly outside the margin of error – in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Obama has a 2 point lead in New Hampshire and it’s a dead heat in Virginia and Florida. Romney would have to win Florida and Virginia, plus find a way to steal Ohio and Iowa if he were to have a chance.

Nate Silver at the 538 Blog – still the best prognosticator in this cycle – has been consistently upping Obama’s probability of a win. As of this morning, Silver gives Obama a 79% chance of winning, and Romney a 21% chance.

Drew Linzer at Votamatic says that there would need to be a systematic problem with all of the polling data for Romney to pull this one out. Linzer says that systematic polling issues would mean that “most – or even all – of the polls have been consistently biased in Obama’s favor. If this is happening, we’ll have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, it’s just as likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Obama’s vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)” As of this morning Linzer is forecasting an Obama landslide, with 332 electoral votes.

Polltracker has Obama 3 percentage points ahead in Ohio, and has Obama with a slight lead overall. The Princeton Election Consortium breaks it down this way:

“Here at the Princeton Election Consortium, the Meta-Analysis of state polls points toward an Obama electoral victory. The median outcome is Obama 308, Romney 230 EV, with a Meta-Margin of Obama +2.4%+/-0.5%. To put it into plain English: If state polls are accurate on the whole, then Obama will win.”

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  • Rick Nevsimal

    I think Obama will win even though I worked against him. We will know early if he takes Ohio, Virginia and Florida. If he does win I expect serious trouble between the government and the churches because of the HHS mandate. I also think the house won’t resolve the fiscal cliff or raise the debt cieling. It all comes down to turnout.

  • Mike Williams

    If Obama wins it just proves how stupid this country has become. My prediction if this site is correct, is that we will be a third world country within the next four years. Our streets will be filled with homeless eating off the government and our debt will suffocate the entire nation. My children will be doomed with four more years of this presidents policies.


    • I find it simply amazing how many assume only stupid people will support the president. Not true the president has us headed on the right track. Govenor Romney will put us into a deeper whole than Bush ever thought of. I find it utterly amazing that anyone can actaully keep track for where Ronmey stands on any issue he is constantly changing his mind on every issue.

    • Paul

      Try reading another book of the Bible besides Revelation. I prefer to hear what’s right about America and how we are going forward. O Ye of little faith!

  • Jack Ross

    Romney will coast to any easy win.

  • Robert

    “If he does win I expect serious trouble between the government and the churches because of the HHS mandate.”

    No kidding. It will get real ugly. Obama vs. the churches.

  • bobdevo

    At least if Obama wins we would have a Christian president, rather than a cult-member who believes women cannot enter Heaven without a male escort. Read some Mormon theology and prove me wrong.

  • Claude

    Romney will coast to an easy win.

    I see the GOP machine has doubled-down on its efforts to undermine the president’s legitimacy. You may be in for a shock.