Bird Flu getting worrisome

As though there ain’t enough in the world to worry about, SCA spells out some ugly projections.

The bird flu mortality rate of 50 percent is the highest of any influenza virus in history. Indiana’s best-case scenario is a 15 percent “attack rate,” meaning about 15 percent of the population would be infected with avian influenza, said Dr. Charlene Graves, medical director of the Indiana State Department of Health immunization program and co-chair of the Pandemic Influenza Plan committee.

But U.S. and international health experts suggest if human-to-human transmission occurs, the attack rate will be more in the 30 percent to 35 percent rate. In Indiana, at the 15 percent attack rate there would be 4,894 hospital admissions on the lower end to more than 16,000 on the higher end, with 1,400 to 4,000 deaths, according to the state preparedness plan.

About Elizabeth Scalia
  • http://bookwormroom.blogspot.com Bookworm

    I’ve been watching with great trepidation as the bird flu reports keep coming in. When one thinks about the Spanish Influenza of 1918, which had a lower mortality rate, but which may have killed up to 100 million people (and is known to have killed at least 20 million people), it’s difficult not to feel positively apocalytic about the bird flu. While various health organizations have been tracking this disease, and appear to be appropriately concerned, I’ve felt that our government has been somewhat lax in taking this seriously as one a disease that could be lining up be the greatest killer in human history. (Do I mention that apocalyptic feeling I have here?)

  • http://badhairblog.blogspot.com Fausta

    I wouldn’t panic yet. Last year Holland had bird flu and we didn’t even hear about it until now.
    The question is, are countries willing to be as drastic as Holland to impede the disease’s progress.


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