Death of Ariel Sharon: The Middle East in a post-Sharon world

What lies ahead of the Bulldozer?

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel is still in a critical state after suffering a catastrophic stroke. Mr. Sharon most likely will not return to a normal life, even if he were to survive. This has serious ramifications for the Middle East and the world.

Sharon had completely changed the political scene of Israel by breaking away recently from the hardline Likud party that he had founded to form a new party, Kadima. That leaves Israeli politics in a state of flux. Mr. Bush, who was a big supporter of Sharon, must be worried about the uncertainty his removal from the Mid East scene creates. The Palestinian President Abbas has lost control not only of Palestinian government but also of his own group Fatah. The militant wing of Fatah, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, is in open rebellion, while the militant Islamic group Hamas is trying to tone done its militancy and is gaining ascendancy.

Mr. Sharon is widely despised among the Arabs and Muslims because of his involvement in multiple massacres of Palestinians such as in Qibya, Gaza, Beirut, and Jenin. Ironically, just like the death of his nemesis Arafat, who was hated in Israel as a terrorist, Sharon’s death or incapacitation may actually help the peace process. This is not the only irony about Sharon’s life. The man who confined Arafat to house arrest will now have to live the rest of his life in a permanent imprisonment within his afflicted body. He was the champion of Jewish extremism and colonization of the occupied territories but ended up as being reviled by his hardline camp.

When Sharon vacated Gaza, it was not because he had a change of heart and became a dove. He believed that unilaterally separating from Palestinians after first permanently annexing vast areas of West Bank and Golan was the only way of guaranteeing Israel’s existence as a Jewish state. This stand would never have led to a permanent solution. Therefore, Sharon’s removal from the political scene helps the peace process in the long run.

In the imminent future, we might see an interim leader such as Ehud Olmert, Amir Peretz
of Labor, or even Benjamin Netanyahu coming to power at the head of a coalition government. But soon we might see that, instead of the hardliner Nethanyahu who is considered an opportunist, or the inexperienced Peretz, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak may again gain ascendancy. Peretz has been trying to sideline Barak in the party, but only a trusted general who is interested in genuine compromise can fill the void among the Israelis created by Sharon’s departure.

Barak may not insist on annexation of large areas of the West Bank and may resume negotiations with Syria. Syria itself may see a more representative if not a democratic government. The winds of democracy are sure to gust stronger in the other Arab countries. The corrupt oldguard of the Fatah is on the way out, and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Hamas will have to undergo a moderation metamorphosis ala the PLO into becoming political parties acceptable to the pragmatist leadership in Israel and the US. After the next presidential elections, neo-conservatives, who are the biggest supporters of hardline policies of Likud, are likely to lose their clout in the US.

Israel and Palestine started their modern history of coexistence from hardline positions. For 2000 years, the Jews had suffered the worst persecution at the hands of the Europeans and always dreamt of returning to the land that they believe God gave them for exclusive use. Around the 1890s, when the Zionist movement was founded, European Jews became powerful enough to influence the imperial and colonial powers in Europe. But they never fully trusted the European powers, and they were proved right when they were almost wiped off the face of Europe by Hitler. The matter of restarting their saga in Palestine was no longer a matter of dream for them, but became a necessity for survival.

But in their religious zeal and struggle for survival, they did not realize that Palestinians, some of whom claimed ancestry to the people of Canaan, whose presence predates the arrival of the Hebrews in Palestine, would see them as colonizers, especially as the Jewish immigrants and militants had the support of the colonial occupiers. Many Zionists, not only wished that the Palestinians would just disappear; they forced the Palestinians out through terrorism, expulsions, massacres and wars. For a hundred years, the Zionist movement and the Israeli government denied the very existence of Palestinian people. Millions of Palestinians still live in camps dreaming of one day returning to their homeland.

The Palestinians did not believe that God had given the Jews the right to expel the Canaanites or the modern Palestinians. They thought that resisting Israel’s creation and later trying to destroy the state of Israel was their legitimate right. When they lost the war, they resorted to terrorism as a tool of liberation. The violent struggle of Palestinians is not unique in history. The native Americans were demonized as savage terrorists, but today their struggle against colonization of their continent is considered to be legitimate and natural. But if native Americans attempt to expel the descendants of European settlers from the whole of the US now, it would not be considered legal.

Much water has flown down the River Jordan since the beginning of the Zionist movement. New generations have been born and raised in the land both the groups claim. These generations know no other land as their home. Each side now understands the other much better. The refugees have suffered enough.

Israelis and Palestinians now must do what they have done through the last century: that is let history take its course. Just like war and violence was a natural phenomenon when the two groups competed for the land, eventual compromise and settling down in peaceful cohabitation is a natural consequence of such struggles.

Just as the great and noble Salahuddin made a deal with the Crusaders accepting to share the land between the two kingdoms, Arabs and Israelis must do the same. A just and permanent solution of the Middle East conflict coupled with the advent of representative governments in the region will send Al-Qaeda into a coma. This will also remove a key impediment to close cooperation between the Jewish and Muslim communities in the US, giving a much needed boost to the civil rights movement and strengthening an American pluralism that is under fire from right-wing extremists in the US.

Shaik Ubaid is a Muslim community leader who is active in civil rights and inter-faith work.