elections have consequences

elections have consequences November 9, 2016

I had predicted a 300 EV win for Hillary Clinton. The final results are not yet in as of 2:00 AM EST, but I’m going to bed as Podesta suggested, and projecting a 290-248 victory for Trump, unless I wake up in the morning to find Clinton somehow swept MI, WI, and PA, all three of which she needs to win as things stand. My final map:

2016

Why was I so confident of a Clinton victory? Simply, because I thought fear would be a better motivator than hope. And in hindsight, it’s obvious how wrong that is, but that’s hindsight for you.

This was a close election – and turnout was far less than 2012. Popular vote raw totals: Hillary 55.5 million, Trump 56.6 million, compared to Romney 61 million and Obama 66 million. Think about that – Hillary turned out 10 million fewer voters than Obama. The gap between Romney and Obama was 5 times that between Hillary and Trump.

What does that tell us? America is not racist, it is apathetic. It no longer believes in its own defining institution. The number of registered voters was the highest ever – 200 million! – and yet only 56% of that total actually voted. Voter registration is easy, voter inspiration is hard. Trump was better at it than Clinton, but barely.

There’s just one last thought in my head before I go to bed: 2018 matters. 2020 does not.

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