The race for the White House is soon to get real data: votes from voters.
Pundits know polling is becoming more untrustworthy (see the Bevin race), but polls exist so we talk about them.
Turnout for campaign events can tell you who has a prayer, but it does not predict a winner or Pat Robertson would have been President in 1988. I am writing (best I can) without bias, trying to call the race as I see it based on extensive reading and conversations with people in many campaigns.
The Democrat race is a slow motion disaster between two candidates who are deeply flawed: one a socialist and the other with a plausible shot at being indicted during the campaign.
The GOP has a real opportunity to win as HRC, the almost certain nominee, has Bob Dole level national campaign skills without being a war hero. People just don’t like her and unless they dislike the other person more, that is sure trouble. Her numbers cannot move in the positive direction as too many people know her from decades in public life.
HRC will win Iowa narrowly (as of now), because Sanders’ support is overly concentrated in a few regions of the state. I question his organization. He is no Obama and she is spending like mad. He will win New Hampshire, but if he loses Iowa, this will not matter. If he sweeps, he will force HRC to spend far more money than she would wish. I see no evidence he can win the nomination (super delegates and the African-American vote are impediments).
The GOP has been blessed with a large number of very good candidates.* I have made no endorsement, but will vote for the nominee against HRC, even if under protest.
What is the state of the race? If Donald Trump wins New Hampshire and Iowa, he will be the nominee. He will not win Iowa or New Hampshire with the present dynamic. Polls in New Hampshire before Iowa are not totally meaningless, Bush really is in trouble, but a strong third place finish (18% or higher) will put a rocket pack on the not Cruz or Trump candidate who comes out of Iowa.
At the moment, Trump would be an underdog to HRC though he has shown great skills at moving his positives higher. I have not seen enough data on other candidates to know for sure, but Rubio strikes me as the safest of the GOP candidates. On the other hand, only Trump has moved his positive numbers in this race. He might be able to do so in the general.
I don’t think we know anything concrete until Iowa votes. There is strong reason to wonder if polling is deeply flawed and Trump is the kind of candidate that might be over polling OR under polling. We do not know.
Here is why: Trump polls well in Iowa, but the turnout models are skewed to a record turnout. If you see a record turnout, then Trump will win. If there is a high turnout, then Cruz will probably win. In the past, two candidates who hit each other hard have caused a surge for a third and this could benefit Rubio. Mike Huckabee has a chance to be a spoiler for Cruz. He can hold a grudge and he does not like the junior senator from Texas.
Trump has mastered social media in a way that may change everything. If he wins Iowa by five or more, then look for a huge dropout rate of “establishment” types to stop Trump in New Hampshire. The question is whether Bush can stomach Rubio after all the bad blood.
Trump could win Iowa by a lot (if polls are accurate and I am wrong about them). Oddly, that might harm Trump in NH.
I would bet Cruz in Iowa. If Cruz wins by five points or more, then this will impact Trump polling. If Trump comes third (and I think this is possible), he would be very wounded and might spiral down. Candidates that grossly underperform in Iowa often do. Cruz winning Iowa will not help him win NH.
If no “establishment” type gets to 18% in Iowa, then nobody will drop out and Trump will win New Hampshire. A narrow Trump loss to Cruz (who is unlikely to win NH) will not be enough to get (Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Christie) out and let the “third ticket out of Iowa” surge.
Weirdly, a narrow Cruz win (less than five percent) would be best for Trump. He would have proved his voters were real, Cruz cannot win NH but will suck up much attention from the media. A Trump Iowa win will galvanize opposition to him in the easiest state for him to lose: NH.
At the moment only Trump, Cruz, and X (Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie) have a path to the nomination. Iowa may determine X, though Rubio is the most likley X. NH certainly will pick X.
The race will be down to three after NH, but may be down to three after Iowa if Rubio runs down the middle for a big finish. Santorum and Huckabee are finished next week without a huge surprise. Huckabee is best positioned to get a surprise, he needs ten percent or higher to keep fighting in the South.
In short, I don’t trust Iowa polling. I think like 1988 with Robertson, it is impossible to quantify Trump support.
My call at present would be Cruz 31, Trump 27, and Rubio 19. The headlines will be about Rubio’s surge and Trump having “real people.” This will make the establishment that hates Cruz complacent. Rubio and Cruz will get a boost in NH, but everyone but Huckabee and Santorum will stay. As a result, Trump will win NH.
If Rubio comes in second in NH, then the race is on as the entire establishment will drop out and support him. If he is a distant third, then Cruz and Trump will be the real race.
And now I blog the debate . . .(reminder- a live blog is not edited. It is done in real time.
Pardon errors. It also represents my immediate and not considered reaction.)
Questions before the debate:
Will Trump show? If he does not, like Reagan did not, then will it cost him Iowa as it may have cost Reagan?
If Trump does not show, will he still dominate discussion?
Will Trump have more “watchers” via social media than the debate?
If Trump does not show, then Rubio or Cruz have a chance to dominate the stage. This will matter to the finish.
Trump will not lose whatever he has (and nobody is sure what he has), but a Rubio “win” might push up to 20% in a surprise. A Cruz win might give him enough undecided voters to come closer to or beat Trump.
The debate is about to begin.
Trump: Reagan dropped out of a debate just before Iowa. Reagan. It cost him Iowa. I would not have advised Trump to make this move.
Jeb: He has run the worst race in recent Republican history. He had money and he is a very nice guy. My kids have taken to calling him “Jeb the Bush Bear.” To be pitied in politics is fatal.
Rand Paul: He is here. He must try to remind us.
Marco: He is on an Iowa roll. The old Iowa game: let two guys MAD and run to daylight. Can he do it?
Cruz: He peaked too soon. Can he be likable and not just smart? Still the guy most likely to win in Iowa and the guy most hurt if he does not. This is the non-Southern state he can win . . . or he cannot win any.
Christie: Trump with bad cufflinks.
Kasich: His Dad was a mailman.
Carson: He must wake up to win.
Four days and for another four years we will not have Iowa, Hawkeye Iowa, on our minds.
The moderators begin with Cruz.
“Donald Trump”
Cruz: Thank you. We discover he has been to 99 counties. His Dad has preached there. (This seems inappropriate.) I will be back to Iowa . . . He will make Iowa “fly to” country. He got in a good Donald Trump shot.
Megan presses him. “I am glad he is running as a Republican.”
Cruz: I am glad Trump is voting. We want to earn support. Cruz uses the term “ad hominem.” Informal logicians rejoice. Rubio voters are sad.
Rubio: America wants to be America. Formal logicians rejoice. We will “turn this country around.”
Bush: Establishment? “I miss Donald Trump.” I am part of the Establishment . . . because of my family. Transparent. He points out Clinton is not. Poor Bush Bear.
Christie: stand up, but get something done. Christie goes back to home room president pitch that he will not argue “arcane” things. This is tiresome, but since he speaks to the out of work construction worker every debate, I hope he gets all those votes.
Paul: Did he not embrace his father enough? Oedipus moment. At this point Rand Paul should gouge out his eyes. At least he did not marry his mother. Paul attacks Cruz.
Cruz: He respects Ron Paul. Bring together conservatives, Evangelicals, and libertarians. One of these things is not like the other Mr Cruz.
Marco: Let’s the tiny faction of the vote that is Rand Paul’s go to win the 86% of the vote that thinks Ron Paul (the Dad) is nuts.
Paul: wants a warrant for phone searches. Is he still sharing minutes with his Dad?
Kasich: practical government experience. What I get out of this answer: there is right way, a wrong way, and the Kasich way. Ohio. Kasich polishes his Vice Presidential credentials. A “team of people” . . . this is good. Haven’t we all had enough of the savior figure, the light worker after eight years of Obama?
Carson: No political title. “You will hear the truth.” I have put together teams. Sadly, Mr Carson has put together a political team that is a disaster, has run through money, and fudged his credentials. He is a nice guy who will not finish last.
Cruz: Are you really tough on ISIS? He will destroy ISIS. Good. Obama has degraded our military. He wants to rebuild the enemy. This seemed like a non-answer.
Marco: Record and rhetoric. ISIS is bad. We can agree on this right? We will rebuild our military.
Cruz: Regan faced a debilitated military. Morale has plummeted. Tax reform. Reagan.
During the first break, Liberty University suggested you borrow money to get an education that students at their onsite campus would not tolerate for a minute.
Christie: the vote on NSA made the country less safe. Christie says: “Clinton put our country at risk for her convenience.” This is a good line. Tested. Prosecutor.
Cruz starts arguing about the rules. Cruz looks weird here. Fight the power of the rule. Fight Chris!
Bush: I have a detailed plan on what to do. We have to learn from history. He is not dealing with “your brothers” wars still. He never had an answer to this question. He said “damn” . . . poor Bush Bear has a potty mouth.
Cruz: I may have to leave the stage. This might be a good idea at this point. He is getting nasty enough that he makes Bob Dole look nice.
Rubio: clarifies the question, looks calm. He is the cool kid at the debate.
Rand Paul: He and Ted Cruz should have an annoying whine contest at this point.
Kasich: meanders and then stops.
Marco: “Radical Muslims” are hate action not just hate speech. A plan to attack the USA will send you to Guantanamo.
Rand: Rubio did not actually say “he would close mosques.” Paul says wild stuff and the crazy back of the room shouts loudly.
Kasich may have vanished like a son of a mailman in the mist.
Dear Mr Cruz,
When Mr Christie seems nicer than you, there is a problem.
Sincerely,
A guy who once sent you money
Carson: He wants to stop political correctness. Waiting. Waiting. Get this answer out. Teddy Roosevelt: a nation of immigration. Go TR! You have to want to be an American.
Kasich: He gets a question about technology. He will not talk about “backdoors” and other technology. And so it goes. Kasich wants us to have friends and find regional powers. I would like us to have a wardrobe to Narnia. I think both might be found in some possible world, though not this one.
We get a question about charity and “taking care of veterans.” Bush is having a great debate. He is likeable. He is charming. He will fire the sheer incompetence in the VA. He is grown up.
And now . . . we get YouTube stars?
What? Why? Sigh. And so we further trivialize the debate. If only Lincoln had to confront YouTube “stars” . . . we might have gotten a better debate.
Rand Paul: he is good on issues of race. He takes on the war on drugs and equal protection under the law.
We can join tonight’s conversation by going to Google. I will join tonight’s debate by thinking about it and writing.
Ted Cruz realizes he has blown this debate so far. He is quiet. He is rebooting. He will be back stronger than before.
Christie: government should not fund Planned Parenthood. He is also having a strong debate.
Cruz: Obamcare is a job killer. We repeal every word of it. We will expand competition, government out of health care. We should allow fifty state markets. Cruz is giving a good answer here. Is it too late? Personal, portable . . .
Bush on statehood for Puerto Rico. Is this a burning issue? I know for one I have given that at least a thought in the last decade.
Kasich: every engine must move in a crisis. He all but throws Governor Snyder under the bus. Maybe that is good. Mostly you have to listen and “be on top of it.”
Marco: We don’t have to destroy our economy to save our environment. There will be no “cap and trade.” I for one wonder what percentage of watchers have a clue what “cap and trade” is. I know this now: Marco Rubio will never give us cap and trade. Ever.
No caps with our trade. Berets? Never. We are Americans, not French, except for when we love Paris and then maybe we can have baseball caps with trade.
Except no, not with Rubio. No cap and trade.
Rubio on illegal immigration. We get clips of Rubio. This is beat on Rubio night. Rubio lays out his immigrant plan and it is tough.
Bush on Rubio. Bush points out that his book has sad sales. He is the anti-Trump. He has an affordable book. Anyone can buy it.
Bush and Rubio does not like each other. They really do not like each other.
Ted Cruz is now speaking in recordings. His punches back and gives us a plan on immigration. It appears that he will not be buying the Bush book, however.
Rand Paul: “Everyone is for amnesty.” Ted Cruz is Mr. Perfect! Rand Paul is one mad nerd.
Cruz: He pushes back hard.
Rubio: Lies. You will do or say anything to get votes. This will leave a mark, because we wonder if it is true.
Cruz: Marco is charming and smooth. He followed his commitments.
Christie will now predictably say that we need an outsider. We need a “Washington-English” convertor. Stop the Washington bull and let’s get things done. Christie has a good moment. Fight the man by making me the man.
We hear from a woman who pretends that anyone wishes a successful patriot like her should not be here.
Carson awakens. He wants us to be intelligent about our policies.
Bush gets the point. “We celebrate immigration .. . ”
Rubio: We allow a million to come. We mean to continue that. We need a merit based system . . .
We now turn to electability.
Cruz: “I am not the candidate of career politicians in Washington.” He works in Steve King. He mentions James Dobson.
Bush: I can beat Clinton. HRC will run tough ads.
Rubio: There is only one savior and it is not me.
That is nice.
Rubio on HRC: first act will be to pardon herself.
Christie: has been investigated and proven to “know nothing.” Christie will prosecute Hillary. He claims the Clinton days in public housing are over. If Christie puts Clinton in jail, isn’t that public housing? Is he going to send her to his super villain lair?
Trollope for Candidates:
Cruz: unctuous Mr Slope
Bush: The Warden
Rubio: Phineas Finn.
Kasich: Adolphus Crosbie
Kasich: makes a good series of statement on helping the disabled.
Christie: religious liberty means we act based on our own convictions. This is also good.
Rubio: Judeo-Christian values matter. These values matter and undergird the Republic. We should “hope that our faith” influences us to care for the less fortunate. His faith will influence what he does . . . this is powerful.
Paul: states rights on abortion. Liberty requires a virtuous people. He quotes a very good theologian on moderation. I am unclear about this answer as he seems to want to federalize it and leave it to states at the same time. This is like leaving it to your kids and making the decision as a parent at the same time. I don’t think that works.
Carson: name checks the Baltic states. He calls Putin a one horse country, but that horse . . . is strong like bull.
Rubio: he will make people choose Iran or us. I choose us. Why? Hope lives here, not in Iran. Maybe everyone in the world thinks this way.
Kasich: He is thinking about money. He is talking about Belgium. Brits. Turks. French. We can bring all of us together and then not think about money. Kasich makes sense. Is this still acceptable?
Bush: Agrees with a “YouTube” star . . . and asks for a broader, more unified message. We must not increase hatred of Islam.
And so the debate draws to a close. Trump was not here. He is gone, even the podium where he stood. Perhaps Hollywood can do a movie on this.
Rand Paul points out that HRC empowered the abuse of women. She takes millions from abusive regimes.
Cruz on ethanol shows courage. He knows that Iowa likes the money they get from the Feds. He takes a principled stand. This may help him with his earlier problems. If we see him taking a stand that causes him not to get votes in Iowa, then the charge that he panders to everyone for votes is false.
This is point that a good debater like Cruz should have made, but I think he lost his stride early and has been more cautious.
This has been a good debate. We have heard from everyone. It has been tough and there have been substantial answers.
Closing Thirty Seconds:
Rand Paul: He is an eye surgeon. He is amazed. He is a one true fiscal conservative.
John Kasich: The world looks at us: “why can’t we solve problems.” We can. We can. We can. I bet he is supposed to say “we can.”
Chris Christie: 9/11. His wife was trapped. Terrorism scares everyone. He feels the possibility of loss. He will prosecute terrorists.
Bush: has a proven record as a conservative leader. He stumbles a bit and one can see him feeling sad. He feels it sliding away.
Carson: does some school house rock and quotes the Constitution.
Rubio: “let our light shine” . . . I will unite the party and make things shiny. Perhaps Cruz will deport the ravens that might be drawn to our shine.
Cruz: come caucus for us.
Winners:
Rubio: got hot, lost an exchange with Bush and won his exchange with Cruz.
Bush had a great debate. He was warm and witty, but sad.
Christie: was punchy, but often gone.
Kasich continues to makes sense. This might help in New Hampshire.
Losers:
Cruz: needled and got nasty needlessly.
Carson: his close was from the twilight zone.
Paul: so small.
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