Here we go . . . again. Together we will watch the returns to answer three questions:
- Does strategic voting continue? If so, this will be a rough night for Marco Rubio.
- Can Trump break 40% in two states he should carry easily? Or was Louisiana a foretaste of glory infernal for the businessman?
- Does Trump stay on track numerically? Much less than sixty delegates and he is in deep trouble.
This is John Kasich’s state with Ohio next week. If he cannot win here and in Ohio, he has no “play” at the Convention.
This is a good time to sum up what I think I have gotten right and wrong. Last summer (halcyon days!), I thought Trump as a Caine like flash in the pan. Wrong. Trump appealed to the racist (small, but too large) and nativist vote in the GOP. I also thought he would spend his own money to win: very wrong.
Trump is trying to win without spending much money. This is in contrast to Romney who spent millions on his two runs. Trump could have put the race away last week, but refused to spend on a real campaign. We will see if it continues to hurt him.
For some time, I have not seen a way past a “brokered” convention. I think at least two-third of the voters in the GOP have now rejected Trump. He cannot long prevail in such a situation without funds and he lacks the funds. Thanks to his filings, we know his threat of a third party run was always a bluff. He is cash poor.
Let’s be plain: Trump is a good-old boy with deep Hollywood and Washington connections. He could have won last week if he could have kept his mind off his small hands and his rhetoric “toned down.” He suffers from the worse approval ratings in the general public I have seen. Women do not (generally) like Mr. Trump.
So what do I think before the returns start?
Trump is favored to win four of four like Saturday. I think he will lose two: Iowa and Hawaii. He must win Michigan by double digits or the narrative will stick that his polls are all inflated. Mississippi is the last state where the dog whistle to the Klan a few Sundays ago will work. He must win there by more than three. Idaho is his to lose, but I think Cruz has worked the state harder.
People will soon notice that Trump (69) does not campaign very hard, has grown puffy on the trail, and a bit querulous. He is healthy, but is his temper up to the general?
Here is what I think: Trump will win Mississippi. He will win Michigan. He will lose Hawaii and Idaho.
Next week is Rubio’s last stand. He must win Florida, just as Kasich must win Ohio or we will have a nominee picked by just over 1/3 of the voters. This will split the party and Romney or some other “old lion” will run second party to make the point that ethnocentrism, racism, and misogyny are not the face of the Party.
If Clinton is indited either Trump or the “old lion” candidate could win.
Here on “International Women’s Day” (one of those fake holidays we might as well celebrate, because celebrating is good . . . and women’s rights need whatever they can get).
While we wait for the returns from Mississippi where the God vote faces the Klan vote. . . let’s talk about Trump U.
I am in the process of starting a new college program in Texas. The first thing you learned was that you could NOT use the name college or university. This was illegal. You then learned this was true in New York. As a result, we named the new program The Saint Constantine School . . . not college or university for our k-16 program. We have now signed to work with a fully accredited college (NY) and will announce soon. . . but the point: Trump University has a fraudulent name. They could not operate in New York. This is why Trump now has a new name for it (Initiative). Too late. They kept doing business in New York and they had a bad name.
As Trump would say on Twitter: Bad!
The polls are closing now.
Fox cannot call Mississippi for Trump. This is bad for him. He leads “exit polls.”
Can Trump withstand the first barrage of negative ads?
Negative ads on Donald Trump like shooting at a barrage balloon. So easy to do that you can almost freeze over the choice.
Exit polls are insanely inaccurate, but they give talking heads something to say.
Trump must win three of four or the story will be his fade.
Kasich reminds me of Bunson the Muppet.
Rubio is Kermit.
Trump is Sam the Eagle.
Cruz is Pepe the Prawn.
Trump has now put out his “food products.” This is stupid.
Trump will win Michigan I assume, but it is very close. This is devastating in reality. Can Trump be calm? The humble Trump after Iowa was the best moment I have seen for him.
Rubio is Florida.
Kasich is Ohio.
Trump needs both to clinch.
Can Kasich win Michigan?
There is an original Star Trek episode where Kirk is taken to be a god. He has amnesia, though Kirk did not have to forget much to believe in his own divinity. At one point, he is “cut.” The people turn on him, because: “the god bleeds!”
If Trump loses Michigan or Mississippi, the god bleeds.
We will see.
Mississippi is called for Trump. Can Trump clear fifty percent for the first time? That is a big deal.
Now Fox is pretending nobody is voting to stop Trump.
The talking heads have no actual data and are now discussing the end of the race.
We want an outsider in the GOP so must we really vote for an unqualified hater?
Once again Trump is under 40% in a disputed state (Michigan) and everyone acts like he is winning. He is not unifying the Party.
Forget the racists and nativists on Twitter. Many good blue collar people in these states hope Trump will help them as they hoped Trump U or his multilevel marketing schemes would help them. He is a conman, but he is good at it.
As a result, he will get his 34% . . . and that will not be enough.
Meanwhile the “talking heads” act as if all is over. Trump is under 40% in Michigan.
Let’s be plain: my type of Christian will never vote for the bigot, misogynist, and vile Donald Trump.
It is interesting to watch the Versailles wing of the Party party as they prepare our destruction. Trump is now doing an ad for his golf course. This is demeaning.
I hate this.
Trump is now lying about polls regarding his race against HRC.
So once again Trump is bragging about his businesses. He is now lying endlessly.
He is now talking about restoring Trump U. He is ignoring the New York Attorney General.
We are now in an endless narcissistic monologue.
Can we check your tax statements? We cannot, because you may not drink your wine, but you are drunk on self.
He is now saying that “nobody spent” more money against anybody. That is a lie.
Trump lies all the time.
The only person who did well is “Donald Trump.”
Trump is a very good Christian. He is not. Trump is now listing his wealth. This man is a petty, vindictive bully.
“Hostility works for some people.” Trump says. Trump is now lying about the money he spent. Evidently Trump is good at hostility and Marco Rubio isn’t. I suspect that this is true.
Trump can be more “Presidential than anyone.” People are sick about being “politically correct.” He is proud of showing anger and toughness . . .”we are not stupid babies.”
Bad ads were “during his tournament.”
Meanwhile the last two primaries will not be covered, because the East coast media will go to bed.
Trump wants to help veterans, build the military, and then he picks on some details. He is a conservative in the sense I believe in Islam. I believe Islam exists, I have read about it, I have some agreements with it (God is omnipotent), and I am not one.
Trump now goes full protectionist. This will lead to a global depression.
Trump will magically reduce our trade deficit. He is now the equivalent of Bernie Sanders promising unicorns and ponies.
Trump can now get along with everyone . . .if they will only not be nasty. Trump is evidently not nasty.
And so Iowa and Hawaii will not count. Cruz will win and Kasich will pick up as many delegates as the bloviating empty headed racist bully, but the networks will have moved to something else.
So far Trump is under fifty percent in Mississippi. . . but still doing better than good people would have hoped. Klan dog whistles worked there. Michigan is “meh.” He is not unifying the Party there at all.
Facts don’t seem to matter to the media or they are very lazy. Or dim? Early story: Trump crushes.
Actual data comes in slowly: in Michigan Trump is back to the pitiful 36 percent. Has any “leader” in mid-March done so badly? Cruz is now second, but I am reading East coast stories proclaiming Kasich in second as a triumph for the Ohio governor. Meanwhile Trump gets much less than half of the Michigan delegates.
Cruz will win Idaho. Easily. Despite the polls.
Michigan will end up with Trump at 37% . . . 11% over Cruz with Kasich right behind Cruz. Most Michigan folks did not want Trump, but Trump we will have until the field narrows. And that will happen next week.
________
Bias alert: I have given money to the Cruz campaign. I have friends who work in the Trump, Rubio, and Cruz campaigns. I have endorsed no person, but will not vote for Donald J. Trump.
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