Dole or Romney or Winning (The State of the Race)

As a Bull Moose Republican, I am without a party at present.

Sadly, the Democratic Party seems intent on not trying for my vote, my wife’s vote, or numerous other “gettable” folk. Manchin of West Virginia beats the red tide in his state. He is not on any shortlist for Vice President. John Edwards of Louisiana beats Trump at his own game and wins in Red Louisiana? He is ignored.

The large number of Democrats that are ambivalent about abortion? They have nothing in the present race.

Why?

Let’s get real. Any major party nominee can win. (Ask Donald Trump.) Can Bernie Sanders win despite being an atheist and a socialist? Of course, he can if he is the Party nominee, yet surely he would be a weaker candidate than someone who does not take these not so popular positions. Sanders hung out with the Bolshevik butchers of Moscow when they were torturing Christians in psychiatric centers. 

This is not good and the commercials exposing this will be . . . Devastating. Yet the alternative to Sanders appears to be a man whom fame outran and so the name died before the man.

Can Joe Biden win despite repudiating most of his career? Of course, any Democratic nominee can win. They start with about forty-eight percent of the vote,  but somehow everyone forgets that the President (as a Republican) will almost surely get forty-six percent of the vote.

How does the Democratic Party get the last three percent of the vote needed to guarantee victory?

Against Bill Clinton, who could never get over half the vote, the Republicans labored in vain. The existence of H. Ross Perot meant that Clinton could win the White House without ever getting over half the vote. Americans did not love Clinton. His base was just enough to win in two three way races.

In 2016 Donald John Trump was the most disliked person to ever run for President and he got 46% of the vote. Call that the base vote. With a prosperous economy Trump will not get less. Anyone who tells you otherwise is getting paid or so hates Trump (mayhap for good reasons) that he sees what he wishes to see. Trump narrowly won, but now he has been President. The sky has not fallen. Most people think the economy is good. We are more at peace than before President Trump took office.

What will Democrats say to that? They said and keep saying DOOM is nigh due to the President. Doom has yet to come. Instead, we have relative peace and prosperity. That’s tough to beat, especially when you double down on (nationally) unpopular positions.

If Trump gets 48% , then he wins. The Democrats might as well nominate Biden who will lose, like the admirable war hero Dole against the roue Clinton.  The Democrats will lose a race where they feel noble in defeat, but are still defeated. Meanwhile, Biden can get the career capstone of a nomination, like Williams Jennings Bryan the third time, where nobody thinks you will win, but are honoring your career achievements.

The Iowa debacle either marks the nadir of the Democratic Party in 2020 or the moment we knew (God help us!) that the President would win four more years. The Democrats could not produce a winner in Iowa, a state they will surely lose. They acted in just the manner needed to produce conspiracy theories and then  gave a victory to the Ted Cruz of the Left: Mayor Pete. Like Senator Cruz, Mayor Pete is the kind of young man some donors like, but that everyone else finds maximally annoying. Iowa rewards such as they are, but the rest of the nation does not.

The state of the race now? The Democrats are losing.