Oscar winners slipping at the box office — 2015

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2005 marked the first time since 1996 that the Best Picture winner did not gross at least $100 million, the first time since 1985 that not one of the Best Picture nominees grossed at least $100 million, and the first time in living memory that the Oscar did not go to one of the Top 25 films in North America. In fact, the winner that year — Crash — grossed a mere $54.6 million and ranked way, way down at #49.

Ever since then, the Oscar for Best Picture has tended to alternate between relatively big hits and somewhat smaller box-office performers — until last year, when the award was given to a smaller film for the second year in a row. Is that the new normal now? Will the award go to another small film this year? Or could it mean that the Academy is even more likely to snap back and go for a big film this year?

I’m thinking smaller films winning Best Picture is the new normal for now.

Consider: the top-grossing nominee this year, The Martian, failed to get nods for film editing or for its director, Ridley Scott. And the second-highest-grossing nominee of the year, Mad Max: Fury Road, didn’t get any acting or screenplay nominations. And The Revenant, which had a huge opening last weekend and will soon be one of the three top-grossing nominees of the year, also failed to get a screenplay nod.

It is very rare for a film to win Best Picture without getting nominations in all of those categories. So it looks like the award might go to one of the lower-grossing films.

As ever, we shall see. For now, here are the nominees, with their current grosses and box-office rankings for the year as of yesterday:

• The Martian — $226,579,382 — 8th
• Mad Max: Fury Road — $153,636,354 — 20th
• Bridge of Spies — $70,780,769 — 42nd
• The Revenant — $50,353,853 — 54th
• The Big Short — $43,967,724 — 61st
• Spotlight — $28,738,944 — 83rd
• Brooklyn — $22,671,282 — 96th
• Room — $5,166,724 — 146th

As before, here are the Best Picture winners (with box-office stats) going back to the year of my birth; I’ll add this year’s winner after it is announced February 28:

2015 — 69 — $39.2 million — Spotlight
2014 — 78 — $42.3 million — Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2013 — 62 — $56.7 million — 12 Years a Slave
2012 — 22 — $136.0 million — Argo
2011 — 71 — $44.7 million — The Artist
2010 — 18 — $135.5 million — The King’s Speech
2009 — 116 — $17.0 million — The Hurt Locker
2008 — 16 — $141.3 million — Slumdog Millionaire
2007 — 36 — $74.3 million — No Country for Old Men
2006 — 15 — $132.4 million — The Departed
2005 — 49 — $54.6 million — Crash
2004 — 24 — $100.5 million — Million Dollar Baby
2003 — 1 — $377.0 million — The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2002 — 10 — $170.7 million — Chicago
2001 — 11 — $170.7 million — A Beautiful Mind
2000 — 4 — $187.7 million — Gladiator
1999 — 13 — $130.1 million — American Beauty
1998 — 18 — $100.3 million — Shakespeare in Love
1997 — 1 — $600.8 million — Titanic
1996 — 19 — $78.7 million — The English Patient
1995 — 18 — $75.6 million — Braveheart
1994 — 1 — $329.7 million — Forrest Gump
1993 — 9 — $96.1 million — Schindler’s List
1992 — 11 — $101.2 million — Unforgiven
1991 — 4 — $130.7 million — Silence of the Lambs
1990 — 3 — $184.2 million — Dances with Wolves
1989 — 8 — $106.6 million — Driving Miss Daisy
1988 — 1 — $172.8 million — Rain Man
1987 — 25 — $44.0 million — The Last Emperor
1986 — 3 — $138.5 million — Platoon
1985 — 5 — $87.1 million — Out of Africa
1984 — 12 — $52.0 million — Amadeus
1983 — 2 — $108.4 million — Terms of Endearment
1982 — 12 — $52.8 million — Gandhi
1981 — 7 — $59.0 million — Chariots of Fire
1980 — 11 — $54.8 million — Ordinary People
1979 — xx — $106.3 million — Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 — xx — $49.0 million — The Deer Hunter
1977 — xx — $38.3 million — Annie Hall
1976 — xx — $117.2 million — Rocky
1975 — xx — $109.0 million — One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1974 — xx — $47.5 million — The Godfather Part II
1973 — xx — $156.0 million — The Sting
1972 — xx — $133.7 million — The Godfather
1971 — xx — $51.7 million — The French Connection
1970 — xx — $61.7 million — Patton

February 28 update: Updated to include the winner for 2015.