ObamaCare is not a Train Wreck

It’s just not.

Look, when a train wreck occurs, the train derails.  It’s inoperable. 

ObamaCare reminds me more of the car-racing game that my sons (and husband) like to play on the X-Box.  No matter how many crashes you have, it at most costs you a few seconds, and then you’re back in the race. 

And that’s what’s going to happen with ObamaCare — Obama will waive and defer and adjust continually as needed to keep things going.  Others have observed that insurance companies are becoming more like public utilities than independent companies, and this will increasingly be the case.  When insurance companies propose their 2015 rates, Obama will take full advantage of risk-sharing mechanisms, and impose some new ones as needed.  He’ll do whatever is needed, taking whatever authority is in the law, or that he thinks he can get away with by executive order.  He’ll manipulate deadlines do benefit Democrats in the 2014 elections, waive provisions that unions don’t like, etc. 

And when this happens, it shouldn’t surprise us.

Sure, there will continue to be problems.  The next test will be who’s enrolled as of January 1st, or 10th, or whatever the deadline ends up being.  After that, will open enrollment truly close on March 31st, or will Obama waive this, too?  Will insurance companies get their premium payments?  How much pressure will they be under to pay claims under questionable circumstances?  What will the government’s response be to what’s looking to be an inevitable data security breach, and, to the extent that people experience real losses in terms of the consequences of identity theft, who will bear responsibility?

And, sure, this will affect Obama’s polling numbers.

But this won’t matter. 

Obama is pretty open that the he has no intention to build relationships with Republicans and work to them to accomplish anything.  His plan is to govern by executive order and prosecutorial discretion, and wide interpretation of his executive authority in general, and take it for granted that no single action will be, in itself, so appalling egregious as to risk impeachment for failing in his constitutional duties. 

So the real metric isn’t whether anything will cause ObamaCare to implode; he’ll find a way to keep it going. 

The real metric is simple:  will Republicans solidify their majority in the House, and take back the Senate?  And, if they do, will the Republican leadership actually be skilled enough in negotiation and strategy and policy direction and messaging to accomplish anything?