Exit Polls All Over the Place; Ignore 'em

That’s my advice, and it’s Jim Geraghty’s advice, too:

We have typically wildly contradictory data. We have Gawker’s initial numbers that would make McCain fans think they have a real shot, and Drudge, which has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 15. Drudge also has Ohio, Indiana, and Florida too close to call, which is… strange. It’s not easy to imagine a scenario in which Pennsylvania is a blowout, but demographically-similar Ohio is too close to call.

We also are seeing floating around places like MyDD and another Gawker post that suggest more or less the Obama ideal or near-ideal scenario.

I find myself in a similar role to 2004. Folks, if you have not voted, go out and vote. The McCain camp and state GOP sources that I talk to are far from “stoic” as a CNN report just claimed. They think they have astonishing, record turnout in red parts of all of the important swing states – you name it – Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, even New Hampshire. I cannot tell you that what they say they see is enough to give McCain a win. But it should be enough to refute the Obama’s set-to-win-huge argument.

I think to close to call will be all we hear for a while.

If you have not done so already, go vote. Don’t let anyone distract you from having your vote counted.

If you’re freaking out, read this and stop it.

If you’re not freaking out and want the up-to-the minute stuff go here.