Conservative Migration’s Role In Lackluster “Red Wave”

After the lackluster showing of conservatives on November 8^th, I, like all conservatives, wondered why conservatives in only two states (Texas and Florida) fare well? Furthermore, why, considering horrible inflation, higher crime, and a border crisis, did conservatives barely eke out a minor victory in the House of Representatives (hopefully)? Many pundits pointed to poor conservative candidate quality, while others pointed at Trump. I see another factor hiding in plain sight—mass conservative migration to red states.

In this article, I look at the immense margin conservative candidates in Texas and Florida won by and how the conservative migration contributed to such astounding numbers. Furthermore, I evaluate what this means for elections moving forward at state and federal levels. Finally, I show that the phenomenon of conservative migration may speed up due to the continued polarization reflected in the mid-term elections of 2022 and the continued mismanagement of Democrat states.

What is a Conservative Migrant?

A conservative migrant is—me. Native Californians, my wife and I moved to Texas in 2018, Why? High cost of living, crime, poor schools, and no political voice due to overwhelming Democrat control of California. We continuously found ourselves running behind, no matter how hard we worked to get a head. As of today, the average price of gas in California is $5.49 a gallon. The average state income tax rate for a family with two earners in California is 9.3%. This is on top of the 32 to 35% federal income tax of most two-income earning families. Our family also had the extra cost of Catholic private school due to failing public schools. Furthermore, many laws in California allowed for the sexualization and indoctrination of young children. All the above are results of long-term Democratic governance and mismanagement. We had to get out.

Why Texas and Florida?

Moreover, while Texas lacks California’s nice weather, it makes up for it in many other ways. Below (in no particular order) are the reasons my family moved to red Texas from blue California.

Lower cost of living. Simply put, living in Texas costs less. Right now, the average cost of gas in Texas is $3.14 per gallon ($3.57 in Florida). Our mortgage and food are also less than California.
No state income tax (same as in Florida). Translation: we keep more of the money we earn.
Traditional values. As a red state (like Florida), Texas’ values of hard work and the family align with our family’s values.
Excellent schools. Our local public schools are top notch. They also do not indoctrinate our children.
The recovery of our political voice. In Texas, our vote counts. The same goes for conservatives who now live in Florida.

Therefore, to anyone with any common sense, the reasons for our California departure are obvious. We moved for the sake of our family, our financial security, and our sanity. Likewise, the same goes for those who fled New York for Florida.

The 2022 Election Story in Texas and Florida

The key fact in the conservative dominance in the states of Texas and Florida is conservative migration out of blue states. NPR calls this phenomenon “the big sort.”

While schools, crime, real estate prices and quality of life are still major considerations for folks who are moving, finding an area with shared political views is key.

Political scientist Larry Sabato posted an analysis on Thursday that shows how America’s “super landslide” counties have grown over time.

Of the nation’s total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide counties — where a presidential candidate won at least 80% of the vote — has jumped from 6% in 2004 to 22% in 2020.

We see the above play out in the 2022 mid-term election, especially in Florida.

Texas

In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott beat cereal Texas politician and Democratic hero Beto O’Rourke by 887,503 total votes or 11 points. This after the severe weather event in winter of 2021 known as Snowmageddon and the tragic event in Uvalde in May of 2022 damaged Abbott’s record among many independent Texas voters. This could account for the lesser vote differential Abbott got compared to 2018 over Lupe Valdez (1,109,581 total votes). The total overall vote the Republican governor received in both elections shows that conservative migration continues to help Republican politicians.

Florida

Florida reflects the conservative migration’s impact to a far greater degree. In 2018, candidate Ron DeSantis beat candidate Andrew Gillum by a mere 32,463 total votes, a fraction of a percentage point. 2022 was a far different story. Now governor DeSantis beat former Florida governor (and Republican) Charlie Crist by 1,507,769 total votes or 19.4 points. Now, conservative migration does not solely account for this extreme shift in the electorate. DeSantis is a governor with an excellent record in Florida. Statewide, Democrats experienced catastrophic losses, even in Democrat heavy Miami-Dade County. DeSantis won the county by almost 11 points. Surprisingly, President Biden won the county by 7.33 points in 2020. For all paying attention, that is an 18-point flip in just two years. 18 POINTS!

Florida is over for Democrats

-Jessica Tarlov, Democratic Commentator for Fox News

Elections Moving Forward

Moreover, as conservative migration continues from blue states to red, the diluted conservative vote in those blue states will continue to benefit Democrats despite their poor governance. Take New York state, for example. In 2020, then candidate Biden won the state of New York by 1,992,889 or 23.2 points. Conversely, incumbent governor Kathy Hochut won New York state by 326,265 total votes or a mere 5.8 points. That is a flip of 17.4 points or the loss of 1,666,624 votes in just two years. Theoretically, if conservatives had stayed in New York and not migrated to Florida, Lee Zeldin could well be the governor-elect of New York today.

Conservatives Vote with Their Feet

To conclude, what can we learn from the disappointing results (at least for conservatives) of the 2020 mid-term elections? Well, the number one thing we learned is that conservatives voted with their feet before voting with their hands. Like my family, many conservatives left Democrat led (blue) states in favor of Republican (red) ones. Sadly, this exodus leaves conservatives left behind in blue states at the mercy of poor Democratic governance. This also contributes to the continued political polarization in the US. For those who leave blue states, there was only one option left to them—migration. In the end, red states continue to get redder and blue states remain blue.

Furthermore, due to this new reality, we may never see national and state elections “too close to call” in red states like Florida and Texas. Hopefully, as things continue to decline in poorly run blue states, those like Tulsi Gabbard abandon the Democrat party and vote to change it.