Prof. Dawkins: Congratulations! Europe Is Already Lost

In a recent interview, Ricard Dawkins, popular atheist and author of The God Delusion, stated the following:

We are culturally a Christian country (United Kingdom). I call myself a cultural Christian. I’m not a believer, but there’s a distinction between being a believing Christian and a cultural Christian. I love hymns and Christmas carols. I feel at home in the Christian ethos. It’s true that statistically, the number of people who actually believe in Christianity is going down, and I’m happy with that. But I would not be happy if, for example, we lost all our cathedrals and our beautiful parish churches.

When presented with the shrinking of Christianity and the growth of Islam in Europe, Dawkins laments:

If I had to choose between Christianity and Islam, I choose Christianity every single time. It seems to be a fundamentally decent religion in a what that I think Islam is not.

Dawkins goes on to explain himself in the clip linked above. In short, he sees a definite threat to Western civilization if Islam takes a majority hold in Europe. Which brings me to the point of this article. Given the data at hand, Europe is already lost. Moreover, Dawkins, and secular/progressives like him, bear much of the responsibility for its loss.

Nature abhors a vacuum. As Christianity dies in the West, Islam (not secular/progressivism) takes its place.

Islam’s Historical Trajectory in Europe

As Dawkins accurately states, Christianity continues to die in Europe. His fear for the future seems an inevitability. According to a 2018/19 study by Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan titled, When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?, predicts the following using three scenarios of fertility rates, migration patterns, and an average of both fertility rates and migration:

Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.

They further predict that such a change in demographics will:

…change the face of Europe socially, politically, and economically. This paper will provide a better insight and understanding of Muslim population dynamics to European governments, policymakers, as well as social and economic planners.

Moreover, the trends in fertility rates were taken from recent research conducted by Pew Research Center, found here and here. Therefore, if trends hold according to Rostan and Rostan, Dawkins’ fears of a dominant Islam seems all but certain.

The Slow Death of Christianity in Progressive US States

In the US the situation appears less dire. However, according to a recent Axios map, Christianity (measured by church or religious service attendance) seems on the decline, especially in states with progressive governance.

Vermont (75%), New Hampshire (66%) and Maine (66%) have the highest share of adults who say they never or seldom attend church or religious services, compared to the national average of 49%, per a new Axios analysis of Household Pulse Survey data.

Conversely, conservative states represent the states with the highest church or religious service attendance, with Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana at the top of the list. This trend will continue as families in conservative states get married and have more children at higher rates. As Lyman Stone at The American Enterprise Institute points out in The Conservative Fertility Advantage:

Holding conservative beliefs and attitudes probably makes people more determined to marry and have children earlier, given the significant emphasis conservatives place on the family, children, and marriage. Moreover, some liberals (though certainly not most) have begun to adopt explicitly anti-natal ideologies related to worries about population growth and climate change. Indeed, as shown above, more conservative people report desiring more children in the future, a good indication that conservative attitudes may indeed lead to higher fertility: conservatives who have no kids yet desire more kids than liberals with no kids yet.

Moreover, when we see the increase in abortion rates in progressive states and the appeal (permission) of progressives, like Vox’s Bryan Walsh, for other progressives to have more kids, this reality becomes even more clear: progressivism, in terms of fertility rates and family creation, represents a non-starter at best, and an existential crisis at worst (at least for progressive states).

What It all Means…

According to the data presented here, the ascendancy of Islam in Europe in the next two-hundred years appears all but inevitable. Native Europeans, many of whom support progressive family policies, simply cannot keep up with the fertility rates of those who identify as Muslim and practice Islam. (Click here for the total fertility rates from 2015 to 2020). What does a majority Muslim Europe look like? Will it usher in sharia law via democratic means? Possibly. Certainly, most majority Muslim countries do not support progressive ideals of “tolerance” and “acceptance,” especially regarding sexual morality. Dawkins fears the form this intolerance assumes in Muslim countries and does not wish for it to appear in Europe. Sadly, neither he or other secular/progressives who actively seek to dismantle the “Christian” West, and her sexual ethics, sees the irony in the ultimate success: an intolerant Muslim Europe.

Furthermore, the US, due to its more conservative population (compared to Europe), will not see an ascendancy of Islam like that of Europe. These conservatives, with their higher fertility rates and larger families, may well prove the deciding factor in maintaining, at least a cultural Christianity, in the West. Secular/progressives in the US will do as secular/progressives in Europe have done, only with more limited results.

Final Thoughts…

To conclude, the future of Christianity, even “cultural Christianity” in Europe, seems dim. Secular/progressives (like Dawkins) continue to make great strides in Europe. Their successes have effectively left the religious field open for another to take its place and Islam appears the obvious heir. Ultimately, a post-Christian Europe is a Muslim Europe, not a secular/progressive utopians Europe. As stated at the onset, nature abhors a vacuum. Did secular/progressives imagine the vacuum filled by Islam? Definitely not.

Thankfully, the US has conservatives in greater number than Europe. Sadly, Europe is already lost.

Thoughts?