Why Obama Wins

Why Obama Wins January 4, 2012

Here’s why:

  • Evangelicals* won’t vote for a woman (see Michele Bachmann)
  • Evangelicals won’t vote for a Catholic (Santorum)
  • Evangelicals won’t vote for a Mormon (Romney)
  • No one else will vote for Perry, ensuring Romney the nomination
  • Thus, in the general election, evangelicals will stay home because they’ll be unmotivated by their choice (Romney)

*I mean “evangelicals” as defined by the mainstream media: white, conservative, born-again Christians. This is a psychographic category, not a theographic one. The media is underestimating the great distaste that evangelicals have for Catholics and Mormons, both of which are listed as cults, if memory serves, in Larson’s Book of Cults.  I didn’t even grow up evangelical, and I was given that book by some youth pastor to read.  So many evangelicals grew up being told that the pope is the anti-Christ and that the LDS Church is satanic, that it is deeply ingrained in them.  I’m not saying that they’ll campaign against Romney or Santorum, just that their antipathy to their religions will leave evangelical voters totally unmotivated.

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What Are Your Thoughts?leave a comment
  • Dan Hauge

    I hope this is right–but it always depends on what’s happening at the time. Some particularly bad economic news next fall could push more middle-of-the-road voters towards Romney (I still believe the timing of the 2008 economic crash pretty much pushed Obama over the top).

  • John Mark

    When it comes down to the wire, evangelicals will vote for Romney, or Santorum, or (even if they have questions about his past) Gingrich. I don’t think you can overstate how deep their/our distrust of Obama is, and I think that ‘pragmatics’ will ultimately prevail. I am less optimistic about a Republican win, I think there is still good reason to believe Obama will get re-elected. I am perhaps more middle of the road than the people you are thinking of….hard to say….but I like Santorum, and will certainly vote for Romney-and no, I am not sold on Mormon theology at all-but if he is the candidate at this point I consider him a better choice than BHO.

  • But what if Romney uses Big Love as his marketing campaign? Maybe more people will vote for him if they think he’s Bill Hendrickson.

    Wait, do evangelicals* watch HBO?

  • Fajita

    I had the exact same thoughts. Sadly, they may vote for Trump as a third party (split the vote and Obama wins). Or they may vote for a late entry Palin, who may enter in for a last second bump for book sales.

  • Seeing how nuts evangelicals went over Palin, I don’t think they’d stay home if she was the nominee. I also think they’d overlook the Catholic issue for Santorum, since they ignored Reagan’s divorce, but Rick will flame out in a few days anyway. It will be interesting to see if they stick to their guns about Mormonism being a cult.

  • You left Ron Paul out of the mix…

  • Frank

    Wow you couldn’t be more wrong. Obama is finished!

    • toddh

      lol

  • Bobby

    100% agree you Tony. Seriously, how could the “most balanced” as they say, Christians (evangelicals) ever vote for a Mormon? It’s entirely against everything they stand for. The dude (Romney) when on a mission, wore the tie and suit, knocked on doors, and shared to truth of Joesph Smith:|

    Obama will win hands down, he’ll dominate, just the way it is and the times we are in. Anyone and everyone below the age of 30 and not a Mormon will vote Democrat. Unless they deny what they stand for and make a compromise and vote for a Mormon government:/

  • John

    Gotta love how an admitted non-Evangelical knows what Evangelicals think. Evangelicals will vote for Romney or Santorum. You can’t get more red-necked Evangelical than Liberty University and that school has had both Romney and Santorum speak to the student body. Evangelical leaders are continually cozying up to Romney and Santorum. It’s the Evangelical vote in Iowa that boosted Santorum’s ratings this past week. Evangelicals will rally around the Republican nominee as the lesser of two evils.

  • Travis Greene

    Anymore, evangelical distrust for Catholicism is much less than for Mormonism. Conversative evangelicals and Catholics are largely allies now, especially on the social issues they care about.

  • Bobby

    From a life long Calvary Chapel (evangelical) standpoint, voting for Romney is like compromising the gospel! We do NOT sub-statute doctrine for unity…

  • Jay

    And they won’t vote for Ron Paul because he isn’t anti-gay and he is anti-war.

  • I’ve had the feeling for months now that *none* of these candidates will be the nominee. It’s not that much of a stretch to imagine someone like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush waiting for a few primaries to pass, and then saying, “Based on the growing dissatisfaction with our current slate of candidates, I have heard my party’s call to run for president.” That way, they avoid getting beat up for too long in the primary process, they come across as a savior (since Republicans have wanted *both* of those guys to run for years), and Bush especially would garner evangelical support in a way that none of these other candidates could.

  • R

    How silly. Either you know your assertions are false and this post troll bait or you’ve been sipping the Kool Aid. I know plenty of ‘born again’ WASP types who would happily vote for Palin, Bachmann, Santorum or Gingrich. True, many of your ‘evangelicals’ have trouble voting for a Mormon, but most will if that is the choice.

    You know as well as anybody that using a 30 year old book by a fringe personality to misrepresent a whole group is unfair. I used to come to this blog for reasonable posts, but looks like you have slipped into subtle evangelical bashing through gross mischaracterization – not my cup of tea – Good Bye.

    • Sorry to lose you, R. I don’t think it’s red meat for trolls to argue that a book had an enormous influence on a couple generations of voters.

  • Ironic how evangelicals who claim to love the biblical text [including love for neighbor (immigrants), peace on earth ( say no to wars & rumors of wars), and moral values (fidelity to spouse) will vote for a republican because they don’ yet trust the black guy or trust the government to do anything except insure our wealth.

    • toddh

      I wish this blog had a “like” button, because your comment deserves it! Well done.

  • Kenton

    “The media is underestimating the great distaste that evangelicals have for Catholics and Mormons”

    Tony, I think YOU’RE underestimating the great distaste most Americans now have for Barack Obama.

    http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=state&ifdim=state&tdim=true&tstart=1228370400000&tend=1320382800000&hl=en&dl=en&q=unemployment+rate

    • I could be, Kenton. And I had lunch today with a liberal who vowed to me that he would not vote for Obama again because he’s failed as a president.

  • Basil

    Evangelicals will vote for Santorum, Iowa proved that. As for Romney, I think there is an element of “demotivation”, and maybe part of that is because of his Mormon faith. But I think it is because across the political spectrum, right to left, Romney comes off as the rich sleazeball who will say anything just to win your support, even if it completes contradicts what he told someone else the day before.

    I think Santorum could get the nomination, but he has to develop a political machine in a lot states, basically in the next 2 weeks. Time and money are against him, but we shall know soon enough.

    As for the general election – we can’t really speculate. A lot can, and will happen, between now and November. The economy has everyone in a sour mood, and that is a big drag on President Obama’s reelection chances. However, the Republicans are not offering any reasonable (or even sane) alternative to address our entrenched economic problems. It’s just never ending culture war, war with [insert name of Middle Eastern country of the month], and tax cuts for millionaires — we have been doing it since 2000, and it hasn’t worked yet.

    • Charles

      .1% of Iowa’s population voted for Santorum, 1.3% of Iowa voters. Only 5.4% of Iowa voters participated in the caucuses. I don’t think Santorum’s showing tells us much at all.

  • DRT

    Its much more simple than this. The recession* is going to last several more years. Not much is going to get done, and if the repubs take the Pres this time around then whoever it is will get kicked out in 2016. Its a no win situation. And the last thing the repubs want to do is waste one of the best candidates for a two term legacy on this impossible economy, so they are not going to let Chris Christie or Jeb Bush run this time around. They are willing to let this one be a toss up so they are sure they can get one of theirs into office in 2016.

    Anyway, Obama’s policies are practically right wing anyway.

  • You forgot Newt Gingerich. He’s gotten all *evangelical* and repentant recently.

  • Carla

    Iowa is not a good bellwether of what evangelicals will do, despite what the media says. It’s a state full of mainliners, not true conservative evangelicals–this is a state that legalized gay marriage, remember? So religious folks in Iowa don’t have the same concerns about a Mormon or a Catholic as, say, Southern Baptists. South Carolina will, I think, be a better test of how much compromise more conservative evangelicals are willing to make to boot the baby-killing socialist out of office.

    • Disagree, Carla Jo. Gay marriage was passed in Iowa by the state supreme court, against the vehement polling of the populace. There are lots of true, conservative evangelicals in Iowa. I think it may be closer to SC in that regard than it is to MN.

  • Patrick

    Huh. I guess this is the logical outcome of an illogical premise: use only one filter and predict how people will react. To suggest that a group of people (evangelicals, women, urbanites, etc.) will use only one measure (religion, government programs, etc.) to determine how to vote is far, far too simple.

    Evangelicals, like everyone else, I suspect, will vote based on their view of their own and the country’s best interest. Even if your theory were right, it doesn’t matter. Based on history, the only thing that can save a presidency with numbers this awful is a gigantic screw up by the challenger.

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  • toddh

    I gotta say, like a lot of the others, I think you are wrong on who evangelicals will vote for. They seem to not prefer Santorum or Romney, but I think when it comes down to it, many of them will vote for anyone with an “R” next to their name on the ballot.

    That is, if the anecdotal evidence from my extended family means anything 😉

  • Lock

    Tony, if this is what you think, then you are off. The Presbyterian Dan Quayle endorsed Romney months ago.

    Your views of evangelicals is off.

  • Lock

    I have a hard time believing you are this ignorant about evangelicals, Tony.

    I think you use your speakings and writings to deliberately bias people into faults understandings about people you hate. I don’t think you are seriously that stupid.

  • Hawk

    Economy is getting better. Unemployment is down almost a full percentage point (9.8-8.5). Things can change but evangelicals are not the only ones that vote Republican (70% of Episcopalians voted for the GOP in 2008). Santorum and his ilk scare the hell out of fiscally conservative banker types who like oral sex from their mistresses. Unless a less vitriolic Republican steps forward, Obama wins easily. I think Tony is wrong about evangelicals not voting for a catholic or a Mormon, but I think he’s right to suggest they compromise what they stand for when they do. Obama is probably the most sane and orthodox Christian of the lot. I guess the white Christian would rather vote for a heretic or s lunatic

  • Hawk

    I was going to write:

    I guess the white church would rather elect a heretic or a lunatic over a black man who is married to his first wife, raising two fine children, and makes public proclamations about his faith in Jesus. Oh, right, he’s a black man.

    • Lock

      “I’d rather be ruled by a competent turk than an incompetent Christian.”

      – Martin Luther

  • Too clever! I think it’s funny that all the #LGBT crowd is spending their time attacking Santorum when Romney is the only real threat. I don’t even believe Romney will be in now – It all comes down to religion. http://www.goodasgay.com