Remember the experts who told you that Trump would fade in the Fall? These same experts are now telling you that it is over. I have been telling you that like 1980 (confirmed in 1988) this is a Party changing election. Old precedents are no guide. In the past the insurgent candidate has won Iowa or New Hampshire, but has not had the money or infrastructure to win both.
Donald Trump is not a normal candidate and this is not a normal year.
First, the Party is not happy with the “old order.” They are not ready “to settle down.”
Second, social media has changed the rules and some candidates (Jeb Bush) never caught on to the new order. Trump is the master of social media combined with free television.
As I have argued from the start, I think the most likely outcome is still a deadlocked convention. That may not be a good thing, but it is happening before our eyes. The only way this can be avoided is for Trump to knock out Rubio by winning Florida AND knock out Cruz by winning Texas. Otherwise, each candidate will get his share.
And so now the debate begins . . . as always these are my thoughts as the debate happens. There is little or no editing (pardon errors). (Disclaimer: I have given money to Cruz in the past. I have dear friends who work in the Cruz, Trump, and Rubio campaigns.)
Donald Trump is the frontrunner and the race is his to lose. He has a committed core of support. He has money if he wants to spend it. He has very high negatives and has a committed core of people who strongly dislike him.
One thing to note: nobody has done sizeable ad buys against Trump or run much opposition research against him. Even the Democrats have just started . . . what will be found? Anything? Would it matter anyway?
Ted Cruz is winning his home state and has a small group of “Constitutionalist” supporters. He is disliked by other candidates and many of their supporters. He has high negatives and an unctuous manner.
Marco Rubio has not won any state, but is most GOP voters second choice. He will get many delegates in second place in proportional states, but needs to win. He has an appealing personality to many, but has yet to throw a good punch.
John Kasich is right to keep running as he can win Ohio and hope lightening strikes in a brokered convention. Nobody hates John Kasich even if few outside of his family love him.
Ben Carson is running for Ben Carson. It is a sad thing to see. He is the candidate on a book tour. Dr. Carson was a great man and now he risks all of it on a race that is less Quixotic than an Adventist midlife crisis. If to your credit you will not drink too much, smoke, you always can run for President.
This race is not chaotic. It is the end of the old Reagan-Bush consensus. Reagan built the soul of the old Party and Bush was the technocrat. That day is done. We are now almost as far from Reagan as Reagan was from FDR in 1979 when he began to gear up to run in 1980. This is the reboot moment.
And now the final debate before the Super Tuesday voting begins.
If nothing changes, Trump will be the nominee so many “analysts” are telling us that if nothing changes Trump will be the nominee. Clue: if Trump keeps winning he will win . . . this is the analysis equivalent of Phil Simms telling you that if the Cowboys keep scoring touchdowns, they will win the game.
Dr. Carson introduces himself by pointing out that we are headed off the abyss. We will not solve problems by destroying each other. Dr. Carson runs for homeroom monitor. He will be nice! This is easy to do.
Kasich reminds us that he is a post office worker’s son. He tells me that I can play for the Green Bay Packers if I wish to do so.
Rubio: ID of the Party. Reagan/Bush. There was an appeal to “hopes and dreams.” Will we prey on angers and fears? He is going for optimism versus anger.
Cruz: Welcome to Texas. Mom and Dad ended up in Texas . . . I will do what I say I will do.
Trump: “My whole theme is: make America great. We don’t win anymore.” This is message discipline. “We are going to win a lot.” He promises a “big, big” difference.
Wolf Blitzer: immigration . . . Trump and Cruz are for amnesty.
Trump: “I am the reason we are discussing immigration.” “The best will come back . . .”
Big cheers.
Trump: Sherriff Joe is endorsing me. Does anyone much know who this is not already with him?
Rubio: You would not have hired my Mom.
Trump: I could not get help.
Trump: Mitt Romney was a terrible candidate.
Rubio and Trump exchange. I checked as they talked and Trump did indeed hire illegal immigrants. Rubio was right.
Cruz took on Rubio and Trump.
Trump is accused of repeating himself . . . and repeats himself.
Rubio points out that he has no detail and Trump gives no further detail.
Cruz agrees with Rubio and points out Trump is guilty of cronyism.
Cruz and Trump now are going at each other. Cruz drew blood here. Trump used his “nobody likes him” line and Cruz points out that is because he is not a corrupt deal maker.
Kasich favors a path to legalization and not a path to citizenship. “We did not finish the border.”
We now waste time on Dr. Carson. Carson believes in “liberty and justice for all.” We need to secure the border from terrorists. He agrees with reasonable John Kasich.
Why is Dr. Carson on the stage? At least Kasich has come in second in a state. This is indulgent and a waste of time.
Trump is asked about the wall. The Mexicans say they will not pay for the wall. The “wall just got ten feet taller.”
Trump would start a trade war to build a wall. Mexico and China take our companies.
Trump goes full protectionist.
Trump would “be selling watches in New York” if he had not inherited money. Trump would hire illegals to build the wall. This is Rubio punching hard.
Cruz and Rubio mix it up on illegal immigration. This is a draw.
Cruz defends Judeo-Christian values. Rubio says: “We are the party of diversity.”
Rubio: the Hispanic community cares about leaving children better off and socialism will wipe out the good of the economy.
Kasich is asked about Hispanic voters. Kasich again tries to be “the nice guy” and refuses to attack Trump. Coward. If you want to win, say how you disagree with the front runner. Sometimes being a nice guy is just another name for cowardice.
Shorter Kasich: Hispanics like me. They really do.
Trump: I will bring jobs back. He also says he doesn’t believe Telemundo. We are building a “new Republican party.” “I am dong very well with Hispanics.”
For some reason, Trump points to a law suit with another Hispanic network.
Hugh asks about Cruz and who he thinks Trump will nominate. Cruz argues this is an important question and refuses to attack Trump.
Hugh asks Trump about religious liberty. Trump defends Planned Parenthood as doing terrific things.
Cruz points out that Senate Democrats think they can do business with Trump.
Rubio attacks Trump as untrustworthy. He is a convert, good, but a recent convert.
Trump talks about the “lines” around states and health care. He is favor of “pre-existing” conditions. Rubio points out that this is not a plan . . . and that “lines around the states” is a feature of a plan and not a plan. Trump keeps repeating “lines around the states” and has no plan.
Rubio tags Trump as shallow and repetitive.
Kasich gives a plan.
This is a side debate for Trump. Does it matter? I don’t know. Is anyone keeping score?
So far:
Trump took incoming and fluffed. He looks ill prepared and unable to follow up on talking points with simply attacking with names. Will it matter?
Carson: He now says, “Who do you want your kids to emulate?” He then talks about “these hands.” Here is what I want: I want my kids to grow up to know when they are qualified for a job, you are not.
Kasich: I am old. I am governor. We will hit the ground running.
Rubio: end the lunacy.
Cruz: Washington deals are bankrupting this country. He has stood up for our country.
Trump: I will get it done. Politicians will never get it done.
I don’t know. If this debate were scored on points, Trump was destroyed. His manner was what it has been. Does that work? It didn’t look good to me, because in a five way debate he had to follow up. He seemed rattled, he had no answers but his talking points.
CNN is now giving Trump the entire post-debate conversation. Trump is now saying he gets audited for being “a strong Christian.”
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