Now that President Obama’s poll numbers are at record lows is a good time to make my prediction: He will win re-election. Easily. Maybe in a landslide.
That the economy is a mess and that he has botched so many of his jobs will make no difference. Yes, polls show any generic Republican can beat him. But we have no generic Republicans running against him. They are each highly particular. And they all either turn off or scare to death the general public.
It isn’t that they are necessarily too conservative. A conservative could have a good chance today. But not an angry conservative.
To be sure, when Americans want their leaders to “do something” to fix the economy, that is not the best time to sell an ideology of limited government. So actual conservative policies–as opposed to just conservative rhetoric–will be a hard sell. But what Americans want most of all is someone to bring them out of the national funk.
The model, again, is Ronald Reagan, the cheerful and optimistic conservative, who brought us out of the malaise of Jimmy Carter. That’s what would win today. But there is no Ronald Reagan on the horizon, as far as I can see.
In the meantime, even though they don’t think very highly of him, Americans will go along with Obama again. The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know. No need to change horses in midstream, all of those maxims. He comes across as more likeable than his opponents, and I believe that–not economics–trumps everything else.
Please understand, I am not saying that the current crop of Republican candidates might not all make good presidents and better than what we have now. I am just saying that none of them, in my opinion, is electable.
As I have said, most people hope they are right. I find myself more often hoping that I’m wrong.
If you can shoot down my analysis, I’ll be much obliged.