It looks bad for Romney. Very, very bad. More than likely, it’s not even going to be close.
The RealClear Politics site posts an average of the latest polls, the idea being that taking an average has the effect of leveling out the discrepancies. If the election were held today, Obama has 247 electoral votes sewn up, with Romney having 191. The winner needs 270.
But Obama is ahead in all of the battleground states except for Missouri. If we go by all of the states Obama is leading in, he has 347!
I know, I know, Republicans are saying the polls have sampling bias. The debates haven’t happened yet. And there is supposedly plenty of time.
But does anyone really think that Romney will be a better debater than Obama?
Do those who believe “it’s the economy, stupid,” expect the economy to get even worse than it is today? It is already terrible, but that’s apparently not enough to turn voters against Obama.
Yes, Obama is unpopular (favorability rating +6.8). But Romney is even more unpopular (favorability rating -.4).
Is there realistically any hope for Romney to defeat Obama? How could Republicans blow this opportunity?
UPDATE: If you want a more optimistic take for the Republicans, see this, in which Dick Morris, in a rather tortuous interpretation that depends on one poll and one sampling method, thinks Romney is actually pulling ahead! I hope he is right and I am wrong.