Choose Your Own Electoral College

Real Clear Politics has this handy choose-your own electoral college map where you can game out the various scenarios. Just plugged in what I consider to be the most likely state-by-state outcomes. Here are the results:

Obama-Biden: 264 votes

Romney-Ryan: 274 votes

In putting this scenario together I used two all-important assumptions to try to keep it real: 1) don’t assume anything absurd; and 2) don’t assume that Romney runs the table.

RCP has designated 10 states as toss-ups. I predicted that Obama will nail down three of those — Colorado, Michigan and Ohio — and that Romney will pick up 7. The Romney states are Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa.

It might not turn out exactly like that, of course. Romney could win his native Michigan; Obama could win Virginia if Virgil Goode siphons off enough votes from Republicans. Paul Ryan could help the GOP nail down Wisconsin but not demographically similar Iowa.

But there, folks, is my best guess. What’s yours?

  • Mark Brown

    Romney 273, Obama 265
    Obama get MI, OH, NV, NH. Romney gets: IA, WI, CO, FL, VA, NC

  • Frankie J.

    It is close, but Obama gets WI and therefore wins it all.
    Obama get MI, OH, NV, NH, WI. Romney gets: IA, CO, FL, VA, NC. Romney may even lose CO and VA.
    I am surprised that all the analysts have essentially given Ohio to Obama. If Romney gets Ohio back, then he doesn’t care about CO and WI.
    One more close one — FLORIDA. This is a MUST-WIN for Romney, but the once very conservative Florida Cubans are beginning to get more liberal as they assimilate into the liberal South Florida area.

  • Deb

    Frankie, it’s mainly the newer Cubans that have arrived in the last 10-15 years that vote Democrat as they are part of the crowd of “take what you can get”. It is rare, however, to see the well established Cubans voting Democrat. My very large family is Cuban (from the 1961) and only a handful vote Democrat. Now, Florida has a very large influx of S. Americans as well and these are split, leaning Democrat, however.

  • Deb

    I think Romney will take Florida… possibly Ohio and Virginia as well. Obama holds a paper thin lead in these 3 states and Romney held the same lead recently. I think the debates will dictate who wins, but I feel most polls on likely voters are looking a 2008 voter turnout. I don’t think they (the Dems) will have the same turnout.