Real Clear Politics has this handy choose-your own electoral college map where you can game out the various scenarios. Just plugged in what I consider to be the most likely state-by-state outcomes. Here are the results:
Obama-Biden: 264 votes
Romney-Ryan: 274 votes
In putting this scenario together I used two all-important assumptions to try to keep it real: 1) don’t assume anything absurd; and 2) don’t assume that Romney runs the table.
It might not turn out exactly like that, of course. Romney could win his native Michigan; Obama could win Virginia if Virgil Goode siphons off enough votes from Republicans. Paul Ryan could help the GOP nail down Wisconsin but not demographically similar Iowa.
But there, folks, is my best guess. What’s yours?