2012 Election Predictions at 3 Days Out – Presidential Race, House, Senate

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PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Nate Silver’s 538 Blog at The New York Times has the probability of an Obama re-election at 83.7% this morning, with Romney’s probability at 16.3%. You have to remember that this is probability, not a prediction. Still, the odds are getting longer with every new poll. Silver says, “For Romney to win the state polls must be statistically biased.” I typically try and wash all positive news for any single candidate by looking at the extremists from the other side. For instance, polling looks good for Obama this past week, so I looked to see what Dick Morris is saying. Morris’s headline this morning says, “Sudden Danger Signs in Polling“. Morris is still predicting a win, but it’s a decent barometer.

Republican insider David Frum has an interesting article up at the Daily Beast. I like Frum. He’s conservative to moderate and I depend on him to tell me what’s happening behind the scenes in the GOP. He’s been quite critical in the past of the Tea Party element, and continued that theme. His article at The Daily Beast & the National Post is worth a read. Frum says, “My National Post column describes why the Tea Party has caused Republicans to lose elections that seemed well within their grasp.” If Romney loses the race, Frum believes the reason will be simple: “The Tea Party struck again.”

Frum is a mainstream Republican who blames the Tea Party element of the GOP for messing up what should have been some “sure thing” races in the House and Senate, not to mention the presidency. From Todd Akin, to Richard Mourdock, to Indiana’s ouster of Dick Lugar (he would have been an easy win for the GOP but lost a primary challenge to a Tea Party candidate), Frum is wondering when the GOP mainstream will wake up to the idea that the GOP has been hijacked by the far right. Frum’s predictions of the House and Senate races are in line with what 538 Blog has, but it’s the interpretation of the data that I find so interesting.

HOUSE: Frum writes, “Most House-watchers expect the Republicans to lose seats, but not enough to forfeit control. The mid-range scenario projects losses of between seven and 11 for the GOP. Losses on that scale would not jeopardize Republican control. They would, however, imply the defeat of almost all the more moderate conservatives in the Republican caucus. If Barack Obama wins re-election, he’ll meet a House even more hostile and intransigent than the House that nearly pushed the United States into default on its obligations in the summer of 2011.”

SENATE: Frum writes, “The Senate outlook is even grimmer for Republicans. Earlier in the year, Republicans hoped they might win both the presidency and the Senate, restoring their post-9/11 united control of all three elected branches of government. Now it seems more probable that the Democrats will expand their Senate majority, most likely by picking up Republican held Senate seats in Massachusetts and Indiana, and holding once seemingly vulnerable Democratic seats in Virginia and Missouri.”

Have you decided who you are voting for yet? I’m still a bit on the fence. Pondering not voting for either major candidate this year, or writing in “Jesus.” I live in Kansas so my vote doesn’t matter anyway. Romney will win big in the Sunflower State.

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  • Jason L. Capitan

    As a moderate from San Francisco (which means I would be a liberal anywhere else) I am happy to see logical voices from the conservatives especially Frum’s comment as a criticism of his own party.

    Thank you.

    • SeriousVoter

      How about your home state making some “logical” choices for a change. Seems your fiscal problems are as bad as the nation’s, given scale.

  • scott stone

    Since most of my friends are liberals I constantly feel like the guy filling in the an incomplete narrative. That or I’m the guy that has to correct the narrative.
    While I’m not a pro or anti Tea Party guy I have to take issue with the notion that everything that goes wrong for the GOP is Tea Party related. Yes they are to blame for losing some senate seat in 2010 but remember what a historic election it was in 2010. They GOP picked up 63 House seats, 680 State legislative seats, 10 Governorships, and 6 Senate seats. The Tea Party, for better or worse, was integral in this election.
    My other issue with Frum and others is in regards to this statement, “If Barack Obama wins re-election, he’ll meet a House even more hostile and intransigent than the House that nearly pushed the United States into default on its obligations in the summer of 2011.”
    My issue is the hypocrisy. When Barack Obama was in the Senate he voted against raising the debt ceiling also.The Tea Party was eviscerated for their actions but nary a word against Obama.
    I voted already, Stein/Manski

  • Claude

    David Frum is a hack who lacks the courage of his convictions. He praised Obama only to endorse Romney because Romney, he assures us, is not really the deceptive, dumbed-down chameleon he appears to be but the imaginary conservative hero Frum longs for (perhaps, among other things, to deliver him from the pages of the Daily Beast?). And if we elect Romney, he reasons, at least the House Republicans won’t create all kinds of mayhem! Wow, what a ringing endorsement.

    Let’s not forget that David Frum was an apologist for the neo-conservative architects of the invasion of Iraq. He deserves credit for not falling in line with the radicals who have hijacked the GOP, but still.

    • John R Huff Jr

      Thanks for the low down on Frum. Tim is always so damn gullible. Never wanting to come out strong for the party and inclined to take a moderate approach. In other words, he doesn;t know enough about politics to know the wheat from the chaff.

      • Claude

        You’re welcome!

  • Scott Stone

    I love it when guys attempt to start a dialogue with an insult.

    • John R Huff Jr

      Yes, I love insults too. It gets to the point without trying to appear impartial.

  • I guess I just have a bunch of questions. Undecided on November 3rd? With all due respect, anyone who is undecided this late in the game should not be writing anything about the election. And going by what extremists on the other side of the aisle are saying as a barometer? 83% percent chance for this President of winning? No way. Look at one definite from 2008: Obama won Ohio by 52 to 47 over McCain. John McCain, a pathetic choice from a fractured party earned 47% of the vote in the all important state of Ohio. Are you telling me with republican enthusiasm up 7% and the enormous record breaking crowds Romney is bringing that he won’t get at least 2 to 3 percentage points more? That is the election.
    And the Tea party has lost elections for conservatives? You all sound like people talking about a rare African disease that you have never seen up close, like you are only going by the words your liberal friends tell you about the wicked Tea Party. Activists and protests don’t lose elections for candidates – candidates who aren’t believable lose elections, period.

    Please look a bit deeper before Tuesday. Possibly, it would be a good choice going with the party that didn’t deny God three times at their convention this summer. You might wanna start there, for better or worse.

    • Claude

      Nate Silver is not an “extremist”; he’s a well-respected statistician whose predictions in 2008 were the best in the field. He explains his methodology at great length on his blog. If you can challenge him on the merits, go to town.

      David Frum, the one quoted above who blames the Tea Party for Republican losses, is not some pal of Tim Suttle’s (that I’m aware of). David Frum is a neoconservative who was at one time George W. Bush’s speechwriter. He coined the infamous phrase “axis of evil.” He currently writes a political blog for The Daily Beast and has endorsed Romney. He may be a hack, but he is no idiot. It is a fact that Tea Party candidates lost races that Republicans may have won with more moderate candidates. If it hadn’t been for Sharron Angle, Harry Reid would have been done. Christine O’Donnell assured a Democratic win in Delaware. Then there was Ken Buck in Colorado. The Tea Party stands to lose even more seats on Tuesday.

      Activists and protests don’t lose elections for candidates – candidates who aren’t believable lose elections, period.

      That’s nonsense. There are all kind of reasons candidates lose elections. By the way, Mitt Romney, too, is a pathetic choice from a fractured party. Primary voters were quite unenthusiastic about him. He was simply the last man standing.

    • John R Huff Jr

      Your Republicans can go to Hell

  • me

    I think Romney will win by a landslide due to Obama’s broken promises, gas prices are high, grocery prices are climbing, heating homes this winter will cost more, many of us have lost our homes, the national debt has tripled since Bush, Job numbers are still in the tank after four years, Obama has not addressed the Benghazi issue that was a disaster on Obama’s watch; it is being put off until after the election to me that is a big fat red flag. Many people in Manhattan are hurting due to lack of rapid response from Sandy, I think those who only watch only the liberal networks believe Obama will win, but if you look at the grand picture I do not think he has a chance with the undecided and independants.

    • annie s

      me says:, you may be right about a Romney win, but you’re wrong about your facts. The national debt has not tripled under Obama; it has gone up 4.7 trillion dollars (just under 1/3), much of it generated by the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the unfunded prescription drug plan passed by Mr. Bush. People losing their homes? Home values declined 35% under Mr. Bush, not Mr. Obama, and in recent months we’ve not only seen a stabilization of the home market, we’ve seen the first increase in values since 2008. Lack of a response to Sandy? Polls agree that 78% of all Americans think the President has done an outstanding job, as has the Governor of the state with the most damage and the Mayor of NYC. Benghazi? The only people who really think Mr. Obama has hidden something are the folks over at FOX News, who released a report based on one person’s unsubstantiated statement which has now been debunked by the CIA. The rest of us are willing to wait for all the facts before we condemn anyone. Your other points? The President (regardless of who is in the office) is not responsible for refinery outages, trouble in the Middle East or speculators and certainly not responsible for bad weather, which are the factors responsible for high gas and food prices. And about those broken promises? Fact checkers say he has kept more promises than most Presidents.

  • Les

    I agree Claude, that Mitt Romney, too, was simply the last man standing from the primary and probably not the best choice. I don’t know if I would say pathetic, but the Republicans could have done better. Call me crazy, but someone like John Huntsman or N.J. Governor Christie (who didn’t even run) are more appealing to me. Don’t get me wrong, the past 4 years have not been good, however, do you really want Romney who has been all over the map on his positions.
    Yes, the Tea Party has probably done more damage than good for the Republican Party. I suspect Nate Silver predictions will be close to reality give or take a few electoral votes. Interestingly, the popular vote could be close to 50-50, although even there I suspect Obama will have a slight advantage. I live in WA state now which will go with Obama, but recently moved from Idaho, which will be around 3 to 1 or more in favor of Romney. It would be fun to live in Ohio, although the bombardment of politics I’m sure gets old there!

    • Charles Oscar

      Are you really this clueless ?

  • Guy Schlak

    Republicans. Democrats. It seems to me when there all together in one place nothing ever gets done. Maby
    Just maby there heyday is about done. I think we should put the best people in office and get rid of this party
    Line BS Really I don’t think the government is anyplace for a pissing contest.

  • ED

    If you write in Jesus, I’m writing in Odin….But yeah, undecided on Nov 3rd? I’m always shocked and a little dismayed by this. What are the issues you’re undecided on? Clearly there is a choice here.

  • Doowleb

    “Frum is a mainstream Republican”

    Sure, just like Van Jones is a mainstream Democrat.

  • Sal

    I like to vote for the candidate that reflects my interests and concerns best. With decisions having to me made soon on the deficit and entitlements, having an advocate for the middle class, would be extremely important.

  • Christopher Larson

    I really like the writer’s opinion. Very open and interesting to read. So unlike the Obama hate that pours forth on many of these.