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PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Nate Silver’s 538 Blog at The New York Times has the probability of an Obama re-election at 83.7% this morning, with Romney’s probability at 16.3%. You have to remember that this is probability, not a prediction. Still, the odds are getting longer with every new poll. Silver says, “For Romney to win the state polls must be statistically biased.” I typically try and wash all positive news for any single candidate by looking at the extremists from the other side. For instance, polling looks good for Obama this past week, so I looked to see what Dick Morris is saying. Morris’s headline this morning says, “Sudden Danger Signs in Polling“. Morris is still predicting a win, but it’s a decent barometer.
Republican insider David Frum has an interesting article up at the Daily Beast. I like Frum. He’s conservative to moderate and I depend on him to tell me what’s happening behind the scenes in the GOP. He’s been quite critical in the past of the Tea Party element, and continued that theme. His article at The Daily Beast & the National Post is worth a read. Frum says, “My National Post column describes why the Tea Party has caused Republicans to lose elections that seemed well within their grasp.” If Romney loses the race, Frum believes the reason will be simple: “The Tea Party struck again.”
Frum is a mainstream Republican who blames the Tea Party element of the GOP for messing up what should have been some “sure thing” races in the House and Senate, not to mention the presidency. From Todd Akin, to Richard Mourdock, to Indiana’s ouster of Dick Lugar (he would have been an easy win for the GOP but lost a primary challenge to a Tea Party candidate), Frum is wondering when the GOP mainstream will wake up to the idea that the GOP has been hijacked by the far right. Frum’s predictions of the House and Senate races are in line with what 538 Blog has, but it’s the interpretation of the data that I find so interesting.
HOUSE: Frum writes, “Most House-watchers expect the Republicans to lose seats, but not enough to forfeit control. The mid-range scenario projects losses of between seven and 11 for the GOP. Losses on that scale would not jeopardize Republican control. They would, however, imply the defeat of almost all the more moderate conservatives in the Republican caucus. If Barack Obama wins re-election, he’ll meet a House even more hostile and intransigent than the House that nearly pushed the United States into default on its obligations in the summer of 2011.”
SENATE: Frum writes, “The Senate outlook is even grimmer for Republicans. Earlier in the year, Republicans hoped they might win both the presidency and the Senate, restoring their post-9/11 united control of all three elected branches of government. Now it seems more probable that the Democrats will expand their Senate majority, most likely by picking up Republican held Senate seats in Massachusetts and Indiana, and holding once seemingly vulnerable Democratic seats in Virginia and Missouri.”
Have you decided who you are voting for yet? I’m still a bit on the fence. Pondering not voting for either major candidate this year, or writing in “Jesus.” I live in Kansas so my vote doesn’t matter anyway. Romney will win big in the Sunflower State.