The Economic Pendulum Shifts Eastwards

Look at how things change. roughly 400 years back the British first put a foot on the Indian soil. By 1900, they were clearly in charge of the country. Then in 1947 they left bruised by the WWII and could no longer handle the already bankrupted colony. Then it was to be a long period – our lifetimes – of poverty and just looking up to the colonial masters.

But things change, they say. And they are. There are clear indications that the power is shifting Eastwards again! The signs are there and as the power shifts, the British are again looking at being in the vantage position. So want to shift their diplomats to move more to Asia. This may be a euphemism for more interference potential. The power struggle is a covert thing. Its nature is in shift.

This shift in history that we are all witnessing is very unique. It is not happening on the back of a military take-over but on the basis of hard work under the worst of conditions. Look at the workers in Chinese factories. They work for hours on end without much on their back or stomach. Look at the many kids in India who work hard, without much help, to be better educated so they could compete. Small kids from small towns work hard against all odds, so they can compete with an American brought up in all privileges. It is not easy for those in Asia to compete. But compete they must.

A new study from PricewaterhouseCoopers says that India’s economy would grow to 90 per cent of the United States by 2050, with China being the biggest. Growth rate wise, the Chinese growth rate would fall to 4.5% in 2050 from 6.8% in 2007, while India’s will fall to 5.8% in 2050 from the current 8.5%.

The latest billionaires list shows those signs already. This year India had four out of top 10 billionaires (#4, 5, 6, & 8) in the world. Many others are knocking on the doors. That is a big jump for any new-kid-on-the-block country! Strangely, China doesnt see so many private achievers in the top slot. My argument obviously is that this is because of its Government-led enterprise as opposed to private initiative.

We may not be when the new world comes through in Asia, but it will. The pendulum has started its eastwards journey.