If Donald Trump is not voted out of office, a distinct possibility due to his past vices, he is in decent position to win a second term. How is this possible?
Before you reach the prose, my analysis, hear the poetry, lame as it must be given an outsider is writing it. Millions of people, not stupid people or bigots, believe there is a mostly white, mostly rich, mostly credentialed group that locks them out and uses the votes of other poor people to do so. The powerful elite hate Trump, but then they hate his voters. The voters do not like the multiple marriages, the Tweets, or the pettiness. They do like disruption. There is good evidence that the President has a growing group of African-American supporters, maybe a lot more. Why not?
Trump does not pretend to the needs of the poor or try to relate to the lifestyle of people who come from Appalachia (my home region) or the cities. And is that not better, in one horrible way, than those fakers who pretend to know the street, but do not really care or know the values of the group they pretend to represent?
God.
Here is my concise prose for Donald John Trump winning a second term:
- He is a horrible head of state, but has been a fair head of government. He has hired many people who have governed in mainstream conservative ways. His judicial appointments have been outstanding.
- He is offensive and has done some actions that are not supported by most Americans. Sadly, many Americans remember that the same accusations that can be (rightly) leveled against President Trump were made against Senator John McCain and Governor Mitt Romney. It has become noise, not news “wolf” having been cried.
- He will have to run against someone and over forty percent of Americans perceive that the Democratic Party hates their values.
- We have more peace and greater prosperity.
Why think this?
There is no Donald John Trump middle ground: you see triumphant reelection coming or impeachment by the end of the Holidays with a new Democratic majority. Our President has been implicated in a crime, though Americans have never gotten very angry over campaign finance law violations. His inner financial circle is testifying under immunity and that will be interesting.
Mueller will see a good bit more than the President’s taxes.
Yet millions of smart people who do not approve of the many things the President has done in his past and is doing now will vote for him. He won after all in 2016 and my impression is that more of his Party backs him now than in the past. He has gained with the Republican Party.
Interestingly, though he is losing “head to head” polls with well-known Democrats (by double digits), no Democrat is getting more than the mid-forties. Trump has his loyal third, but there is a giant undecided vote. Trump needs most of it to win and he can get it.
Why?
I live in a state that voted for Trump, but my friends and family split: most voted for Trump, but did not like doing so. A large group did not. Many of my friends and relatives have been pleasantly surprised by his governing agenda. They like deregulation (generally), court appointments, and the economy. They do not like Donald John Trump and they do not wish to vote for him. Many still hope he will declare victory and go golfing, allowing Pence or anyone else to take the top of the ticket. They are not shy Trump voters (polls I think are accurate more than not), but undecided. Yet they are GOP by inclination and habit or independents with jobs and raises.
There are also a few people I meet who enjoy blowing up the corrupt establishment. They know Trump is corrupt, but in a personal way: he indulges his personal appetites. They believe with some reason that the “brightest and best” who have been running things in both parties are not bright or the best. They know that the opposition to Trump hates them. They see that their friends who did not vote for Trump or who do not support Trump get no respect.
They are not wrong.
Many other Americans believe (with some reason) that large portions of the USA never accepted the loss and have done all they could to make the duly elected President illegitimate. That rankles more than a few.
If William Jefferson Clinton is right, then for many other voters it is the “economy stupid” and many will vote their wallets. If the economy is still strong, then Trump is a likely winner. He is the incumbent and his enemies foolishly predicted the end of the Republic with every move he has made. The Republic has not ended.
Donald John Trump was the mob’s Don or he would have had no casino in New Jersey. Donald John Trump needed money at a time when only the Germans and Russians were lending. That is not going to look good. As for his personal life, Donald John Trump admitted to enough on Howard Stern that one can only wonder about the rest of it.
Still voters knew all this in 2016… and he won.
Donald John Trump is smart, not credentialed. He is used to winning and surviving and he might do it again.
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