God Gap Closing

In the past three elections pundits and bloggers alike have talked

about the God gap between the two parties.  Well that gap is no more, it has
quickly disappeared as value and faith voters came out in droves for
Democratic candidates.

In the past three elections pundits and bloggers alike have talked
about the God gap between the two parties.  Well that gap is no more, it has
quickly disappeared as value and faith voters came out in droves for
Democratic candidates. 

These spectacular numbers show a sharp increase nationally in Catholics, evangelicals, and white evangelicals (strong supports of Bush and the Republican party in 2000 and 2004) towards the Democratic candidates on election day.  The numbers hold true or even better for major battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvannia, Montana and Virginia.

Although, Christians across the board did not merely go to the polling booths and check the names of Democrats; they continued to vote on values.  Economic justice churned out voters in Arizona,  Colorado, Montana, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio.  Each state passed its own version of ballot initiatives to increase the minimum wage, a vote to help the poorest in our country.  A vote in the right direction.

According to the exit polls via Faith in Public Life:

NATIONAL

 

Given the nationalized nature of the 2006 elections, we first compare
2006 national numbers to 2004 Presidential numbers. Second, we compare
2006 national numbers to 2004 National House.

Dramatic shift of Catholic vote
• Catholic Shift, Dems win Catholic vote – 16-point shift nationally
from Bush’s numbers (R52/D47) in 2004 to 55D/44R; 12-point swing
nationally from 2004 National House (49D/50R).

Dramatic shift of evangelical vote
• White Evangelical Shift from 2004 President – 15-point swing
nationally from Bush’s numbers in 2004 (D21/R78) to D28/R70; 7-point
swing nationally from 2004 National House (25D/74R)
o Evangelicals did show up – 24% this year compared to 23% of electorate in 2004.

Shift among voters who attend religious services once a week
• 10-point shift nationally among voters who attend religious services
once a week (2004 Presidential (58R/41D), up to near parity D46/R53;
8-point shift nationally from 2004 National House D42/R57.

Minimum Wage passed by 31-point average across 6 states
• All 6 Minimum Wage ballot initiatives passed by avg of 31 points
• Declining enthusiasm for their issues: First defeat of a same-sex
marriage ban: AZ. Passed in 5 other states, but by an avg of 12-points
less than 35-point average of 2004, with 3 more moderate states all
under 10 points. NOTE: SD abortion ban failed.

 

OHIO
• 42-point Catholic shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to those voting
for Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006. There was also a 19-point swing to the
Democrats compared to President Bush’s 11-point margin on the Catholic
vote in 2004.
• 31-point Protestant/Christian shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to
Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006. This was also a 16-point swing from
President Bush’s 12-point edge with Protestant voters in 2004.
• 32-point White Protestant/Christian shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006.
• 31-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week
from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to Sherrod Brown (D). This was also a
24-point swing from President Bush’s 28-point edge with voter who
attend religious services weekly in 2004.

 

PENNSYLVANIA
• 25-point Catholic shift from Rick Santorum (R) in 2000 to Bob Casey,
Jr. (D) in 2006 and swing of 21 points from President Bush’s 2-point
deficit on the Catholic vote in 2004.
• 22-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week
to Casey from Santorum’s margin in 2000; 14-point shift to Casey from
Bush’s margin in 2004.

VIRGINIA
• 16-point Catholic shift from George Allen (R) in 2000 to Jim Webb (D) in 2006, and 25 points from President Bush in 2004.
• 14-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week
to Jim Webb from George Allen’s margin in 2000; 5 point shift to Webb
from Bush in 2004.

 

MONTANA
• 11-point Catholic shift from Conrad Burns (R) in 2000 to Tester in
2006. A 15-point shift from President Bush’s numbers in 2004.
• 13-point white evangelical shift for Tester from President Bush’s numbers in 2004.

 

Ballot Initiatives
Raise Minimum Wage:
AZ: 66-34; 32-point margin (99% reporting)
CO: 53-47; 6-point margin (88% reporting)
MO: 76-24; 52-point margin (98% reporting)
MT: 73-27; 46-point margin (99% reporting)
NV: 69-31; 38-point margin (99% reporting)
OH: 56-44; 12-point margin (99% reporting)
Average margin of victory: 31%

Ban Same-Sex Marriage
AZ: 49-51; negative 2-point margin (99% reporting)
CO: 56-44; 8-point margin (88% reporting)
ID: 63-37; 26-point margin (91% reporting)
SC: 78-22; 56-point margin (99% reporting)
SD: 52-48; 4-point margin (99% reporting)
TN: 81-19; 61-point margin (99% reporting)
VA: 57-43; 14-point margin (99% reporting)
WI: 59-41; 18-point margin (99% reporting)
Average margin of victory: 23%

Allow Stem Cell
MO: 51-49; 2-point margin (98% reporting)

Ban Abortion:
SD: 44-56; -12-point margin (99% reporting)