Iraq: Step Up Or Step Out

In The New Republic, Lawrence Kaplan says, "By focusing so much on the civil war in the capital,

which the United States cannot win, the administration may wind up
forfeiting the counterinsurgency war in the provinces, which it still
can."

Lawrence Kaplan's article, "The Wrong Surge,"  in The New Republic (February 19 & 26, 2007), got me thinking.

Kaplan says, "By focusing so much on the civil war in the capital, which the United States cannot win, the administration may wind up forfeiting the counterinsurgency war in the provinces, which it still can."

Two Wars In Iraq 

You see?  There are two wars raging in Iraq.  One is the war of factional violence.  It boils over in Baghdad where a diverse population has split along sectarian lines.  This is a familiar war: decapitated bodies found on city streets, neighbors executing neighbors, American soldiers impotent in the crossfire. 

The other war is less familiar.  This war pounds the provinces of Iraq.  This war accounts for the vast majority of U.S. military deaths.  This war involves U.S. enemy #1 – Al Qaeda, whose insurgent forces have almost completely infiltrated every level of society in provinces like Anbar.  This war against the Sunni insurgency, says Kaplan, is still winnable – winnable with the counterinsurgent strategy Washington is currently using in Baghdad where civil war renders that strategy a dud.

A Winning Strategy

Kaplan's recommendation?  Shift the resources and the strategy Washington is currently aiming at Baghdad to the provinces to fight the war we can win. 

Step Up or Step Out, Dems.

The New York Times reported this morning that Senate Democrats will soon introduce a proposal to:

"…overturn the 2002 resolution granting Mr. Bush the authority to remove Saddam Hussein from power, and limit the military to combating Al Qaeda
in Iraq, keeping Iraq from becoming a haven for terrorists and training
Iraqi forces. The proposal’s goal, officials said, would be to allow
combat forces not engaged in those duties to be removed from Iraq next
year."

They had me.  Then I read the last sentence. 

See?  It's good and right to overturn the 2002 resolution.  And it's good and right to refocus on Al Qaeda.  But the goal to downsize the current force – without shifting resources to the provincial battle against Al-Qaeda is a nonsensical strategy according to Kaplan's analysis.

Kaplan recommends holding the force level steady in Baghdad and reallocating the 20,500 troops to the provinces since current force levels in the provinces won't be enough to win. And if we're not in it to win, then we should just pack up and go home.  We should not play with the people of Iraq's hope.  We should not play political games with their lives. 

At Stake… People.

But before we pack and go, let's just stop for a minute and consider: The people we leave behind are human beings made in the image of God.   And these human beings are now fighting an insurgency in their land because of us; Because of our congressional votes in 2002.  Because of the massive sway of public opinion in favor of "Operation Iraqi Freedom" in 2003.  Because of U.S. disregard for UN warnings against the war throughout 2002 and 2003.  

If we are willing to turn our backs on these human beings and wipe our hands clean of our responsibility in Iraq, then so be it.  We just have to do it with the understanding that we could have made a difference.  We just chose not to.