Today’s primaries in Michigan and Arizona

Agreed. Four more years of Pres. Obama. Maranatha!

I never underestimate the propensity of Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot, but if gas is over $4 a gallon throughout the summer and unemployment stays over 8% – Obama has an uphill battle.

The election will come down to 10-12 states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, maybe one or two others). The polls that matter are the polls in those states after the conventions. Until then, it’s all speculation.

If the Republican nominee can look at the camera in the last debate and ask the question “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago”? And the answer to that question for swing voters is “No” – Obama will lose. His strength is overrated. Until the financial collapse in 2008 – he was in a dead heat with a weak ticket in a electoral atmosphere with a strong Democratic tailwind. Will the youth vote and African-American turnout be through the roof again? Will 66% of voters under 30 in an economy that has hit that demographic the hardest vote for Obama again? In the midst of a Republican circular firing squad the President is polling within the margin of error against Santorum, Romney and Paul.

Could Obama win? Sure. But it won’t be a landslide.

“I predict that Romney will win today’s primaries in Michigan and Arizona.”

You could be right, but I hope you’re wrong.

“I still think Romney will soon become inevitable. As will the Democratic landslide.”

You could be right, but I hope you’re wrong.

Does TUAD ever say anything original?

You could be right, but I hope you’re wrong.

Sorry, couldn’t resist 🙂

Obama getting re-elected to a 2nd term is what’s in Room 101.

Romney will definitely win Arizona, and will probably win Michigan. I still think it’s inevitable that Romney will win the nomination, but the Santorum surge shows that the primary voters are still in a “not Romney” mindset. I think the protracted campaign is good for Republicans — conservatives are getting the opportunity to send a message to the establishment loudly and clearly.

The polling for Obama is simply awful, particularly in the swing states, against any of the potential Republican nominees except for Gingrich. The media is in a bubble, and it is showing in this cycle. There is a pretense that we are in a recovery, but voters aren’t seeing it in their own lives. They are seeing that we are still fueling whatever improvement we are seeing with trillions of dollars of our kids’ money, gas prices shooting upward, and housing worsening, particularly now that the foreclosure settlement with the banks has been concluded and the banks are now moving on foreclosures that should have been started 1-2 years ago. This summer’s real estate market will likely be more than 1/2 distressed properties in many regions of the country — not a recipe for improvement before November.

The general election is even money at this point.

@5
“Do it to Julia! Do it to Julia! Not me! Julia! I don’t care what you do to her. Tear her face off, strip her to the bones. Not me! Julia! Not me!”

Dr. Veith, though it’s not relevant to this post, I thought you might want to know that my copy of your book on the vocation of family which I preordered last year just shipped from Amazon.

A good analysis of Santorum’s “Satan remarks”, which we discussed a couple of days ago, was recently put out by The Atlantic. Note that this analysis doesn’t descend into anti-religious rhetoric.

See here: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/what-santorums-fear-of-satan-means-for-his-foreign-policy/253719/

I don’t know. Ron Paul has a strong base here in Michigan. This might be an odd state for the primaries.