Your predictions

Your predictions November 5, 2012

I made my prediction for the election a long time ago, back when Obama was approaching his lowest point in popularity and when the economy was seeming to sink all incumbents.  I predicted that Obama would win re-election.  Later, I predicted further that he would win handily.   I also said that I hope I was wrong, although I almost never am.  I don’t think that prediction sounds as silly as it did back then, so I’m sticking to it.   I’ll say, with a heavy heart, that Obama will win re-election with at least 20 electoral votes to spare.  It takes 271 to elect, so I’m predicting he’ll get 291.

Now it’s your turn to go out on a limb, with everybody being able to find out if you are right or wrong in the next day or so.  Who do you think will win?  What will be the total electoral vote?

The winner will receive our accolades and admiration.   (What should be the consequences if I win or if I lose?)

 

 

 

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  • Pete

    Romney. On a hunch. Not sure what the electoral vote will be – I’ll reverse yours: 291-271, Romney’s way.

    If you’re wrong you have to move in with Harold Camping.

  • Pete

    Romney. On a hunch. Not sure what the electoral vote will be – I’ll reverse yours: 291-271, Romney’s way.

    If you’re wrong you have to move in with Harold Camping.

  • Pete

    And if you’re right… Fifteen trillion attaboys.

  • Pete

    And if you’re right… Fifteen trillion attaboys.

  • Tom Hering

    … 291-271, Romney’s way. (@ 1)

    I see you and Mitt had the same math teacher, Pete. 😉

  • Tom Hering

    … 291-271, Romney’s way. (@ 1)

    I see you and Mitt had the same math teacher, Pete. 😉

  • Ray

    I predict Romney wins the (meaningless) popular vote but loses the electoral vote by a slim margin. Romney has a math problem on his way to 270 EVs.

  • Ray

    I predict Romney wins the (meaningless) popular vote but loses the electoral vote by a slim margin. Romney has a math problem on his way to 270 EVs.

  • Pete

    Tom @3

    Uh.. Actually, it was my inability to read, comprehend and meaningfully interpret what our host had posted that fouled me up. And not enough coffee yet. The week can only improve from here.

  • Pete

    Tom @3

    Uh.. Actually, it was my inability to read, comprehend and meaningfully interpret what our host had posted that fouled me up. And not enough coffee yet. The week can only improve from here.

  • Josiah

    I predict Romney wins in a landslide, winning nearly all swing states except for maybe Nevada. (For data backup for my prediction, see here: https://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FPSC%2FPSC45_04%2FS1049096512000984a.pdf&code=386a47c639a0584f00062d1042e9273c) Most polls out there are heavily biased toward the Democrats by assuming that more Democrats will be voting in 2012 than 2008 (which is purely ridiculous.)
    I’m an intern for the Romney campaign in PA, and polls are still showing Obama +4, but the most recent one assumes that 4 pts more Democrats will vote in 2012 than in 2008. To think that Democrats are more energized now than 4 years ago is ridiculous. If the same number of Democrats vote in PA as in 2008, the race is at a dead lock. And no one thinks that all the Democrats who voted in 2008 will vote again in 2012.
    Romney is winning PA right now. And if he wins PA, he is easily winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida… Romney’s going to win this in a major landslide electorally.
    And he’ll be winning the popular vote as well. The last Gallup poll put Romney at 52-45 among along likely voters. Given that undecided generally break ~4 to 1 to the challenger, I think we’re looking at a landslide win on Tuesday night…

  • Josiah

    I predict Romney wins in a landslide, winning nearly all swing states except for maybe Nevada. (For data backup for my prediction, see here: https://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FPSC%2FPSC45_04%2FS1049096512000984a.pdf&code=386a47c639a0584f00062d1042e9273c) Most polls out there are heavily biased toward the Democrats by assuming that more Democrats will be voting in 2012 than 2008 (which is purely ridiculous.)
    I’m an intern for the Romney campaign in PA, and polls are still showing Obama +4, but the most recent one assumes that 4 pts more Democrats will vote in 2012 than in 2008. To think that Democrats are more energized now than 4 years ago is ridiculous. If the same number of Democrats vote in PA as in 2008, the race is at a dead lock. And no one thinks that all the Democrats who voted in 2008 will vote again in 2012.
    Romney is winning PA right now. And if he wins PA, he is easily winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida… Romney’s going to win this in a major landslide electorally.
    And he’ll be winning the popular vote as well. The last Gallup poll put Romney at 52-45 among along likely voters. Given that undecided generally break ~4 to 1 to the challenger, I think we’re looking at a landslide win on Tuesday night…

  • Dan Kempin

    I predict that the Bears will win the superbowl.

    I predict that the production of gold in Liberia will increase dramatically over the next three years.

    Regarding the election, I make no prediction, though I think it quite possible that the next president of the United States will be placed in office as a judgment from God.

  • Dan Kempin

    I predict that the Bears will win the superbowl.

    I predict that the production of gold in Liberia will increase dramatically over the next three years.

    Regarding the election, I make no prediction, though I think it quite possible that the next president of the United States will be placed in office as a judgment from God.

  • Michael B.

    Isn’t this kind of like asking us to predict what the stock market will do tomorrow? There are so many moving parts, and not even experts will far more knowledge and resources than us can predict it. It’s like if I knew what the stock market would do, I wouldn’t be here — I’d be making trades.

  • Michael B.

    Isn’t this kind of like asking us to predict what the stock market will do tomorrow? There are so many moving parts, and not even experts will far more knowledge and resources than us can predict it. It’s like if I knew what the stock market would do, I wouldn’t be here — I’d be making trades.

  • kerner

    Romney 295

    Obama 243

  • kerner

    Romney 295

    Obama 243

  • In politics, you get what you work for. We even saw this in the LCMS at our last convention, when the missional wing of the synod got the restructuring they campaigned for, and the confessionals elected Matt Harrison. Many examples of this in American history. Though certainly this is not a determinative principle in all cases, it is often the difference that puts one candidate or issue over the top with closely divided electorates. And I think it will apply here.

    How so? The Obamites will win Virginia because they have expanded the Federal government so much that suburban DC became the one prosperous region of the country outside the North Dakota oil boom these past four years. They will also win Ohio and Michigan because of the auto bailout and because of their maniacal focus on Ohio from the beginning of this campaign. But Romney will win Wisconsin because the right has successfully organized the state under Walker. And they will win Pennsylvania because the state GOP has caught the Dems flat-footed. So we will see a change in the map from previous elections, with “red” states like Virginia & Ohio staying with the President, but Romney winning NH, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado….and perhaps even Minnesota. Nevada will also stay with the President despite the horrendous employment situation there due to the strong political power of the unions there.

    How does this add up? Romney wins 294-244.

    I also think that the GOP will pick up three senate seats, resulting in a 50-50 tie. They will also add 2-4 seats to their house majority.

  • In politics, you get what you work for. We even saw this in the LCMS at our last convention, when the missional wing of the synod got the restructuring they campaigned for, and the confessionals elected Matt Harrison. Many examples of this in American history. Though certainly this is not a determinative principle in all cases, it is often the difference that puts one candidate or issue over the top with closely divided electorates. And I think it will apply here.

    How so? The Obamites will win Virginia because they have expanded the Federal government so much that suburban DC became the one prosperous region of the country outside the North Dakota oil boom these past four years. They will also win Ohio and Michigan because of the auto bailout and because of their maniacal focus on Ohio from the beginning of this campaign. But Romney will win Wisconsin because the right has successfully organized the state under Walker. And they will win Pennsylvania because the state GOP has caught the Dems flat-footed. So we will see a change in the map from previous elections, with “red” states like Virginia & Ohio staying with the President, but Romney winning NH, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado….and perhaps even Minnesota. Nevada will also stay with the President despite the horrendous employment situation there due to the strong political power of the unions there.

    How does this add up? Romney wins 294-244.

    I also think that the GOP will pick up three senate seats, resulting in a 50-50 tie. They will also add 2-4 seats to their house majority.

  • larry

    I predicted Romney back before the polls began to normalize by 9% or better. While my percentage may be +/-, I’ve never been wrong about a presidential election. I actually think I’m under estimating at this point.

  • larry

    I predicted Romney back before the polls began to normalize by 9% or better. While my percentage may be +/-, I’ve never been wrong about a presidential election. I actually think I’m under estimating at this point.

  • Trey

    My guess is Romney based upon the states in play, early voting down for Obama, and polls giving Dems +9,10, 11(see CNN!) more in the polls.

  • Trey

    My guess is Romney based upon the states in play, early voting down for Obama, and polls giving Dems +9,10, 11(see CNN!) more in the polls.

  • Booklover

    It all depends upon who outnumbers whom: the voters who draw government aid, or the voters who own small businesses.

  • Booklover

    It all depends upon who outnumbers whom: the voters who draw government aid, or the voters who own small businesses.

  • Cincinnatus

    My prediction: it doesn’t matter who wins.

  • Cincinnatus

    My prediction: it doesn’t matter who wins.

  • Rich Shipe

    I’m also giving Romney a landslide. The advantage given to Obama in the polls with the the Dem samples hasn’t been explained or justified. With Romney killing Obama on independents I can’t see how Romney does not win. Additionally, don’t forget that the GOP picked up a seat in Massachusetts (Massachusetts!!) in response to Obama’s policies. Obama has a massive headwind he’s going against. The main things Obama has going for him is the media and an opponent that does not particularly motivate the GOP base. The GOP base is motivated by dislike of Obama.

    Here is my Real Clear Politics map. (Ignore the lean/likely/solid designations.)

    http://t.co/a9jqOczI

  • Rich Shipe

    I’m also giving Romney a landslide. The advantage given to Obama in the polls with the the Dem samples hasn’t been explained or justified. With Romney killing Obama on independents I can’t see how Romney does not win. Additionally, don’t forget that the GOP picked up a seat in Massachusetts (Massachusetts!!) in response to Obama’s policies. Obama has a massive headwind he’s going against. The main things Obama has going for him is the media and an opponent that does not particularly motivate the GOP base. The GOP base is motivated by dislike of Obama.

    Here is my Real Clear Politics map. (Ignore the lean/likely/solid designations.)

    http://t.co/a9jqOczI

  • CRB

    Romney. Two reasons:
    1. The folks wiped out on the East Coast are not going to vote for Obama
    2. The Redskins rule

  • CRB

    Romney. Two reasons:
    1. The folks wiped out on the East Coast are not going to vote for Obama
    2. The Redskins rule

  • If Obama wins, I predict he’ll lose Congress. But to be honest Romney winning isn’t as far-fetched as I originally believed.

    Having said that, let’s remember that God is sovereign, and that if God can use Judas Iscariot to fulfill His will, then He can certainly use a president.

    (Yes, there is a backhanded intention to my words…)

  • If Obama wins, I predict he’ll lose Congress. But to be honest Romney winning isn’t as far-fetched as I originally believed.

    Having said that, let’s remember that God is sovereign, and that if God can use Judas Iscariot to fulfill His will, then He can certainly use a president.

    (Yes, there is a backhanded intention to my words…)

  • Kirk

    I predict that my preferred candidate will win by a broader margin than the media currently predicts.

  • Kirk

    I predict that my preferred candidate will win by a broader margin than the media currently predicts.

  • SKPeterson

    Cincinnatus @ 14 is right. If Obama wins there will be an immediate drop in consumer confidence and in the stock market. If Romney wins, there will be a slight bounce in both for about three months, and then a slow decline as the unemployment rate will not decrease substantially (I predict it will still be over 7.5% one year from now), and price inflation increases in food, energy and begins to spill over into the general CPI.

  • SKPeterson

    Cincinnatus @ 14 is right. If Obama wins there will be an immediate drop in consumer confidence and in the stock market. If Romney wins, there will be a slight bounce in both for about three months, and then a slow decline as the unemployment rate will not decrease substantially (I predict it will still be over 7.5% one year from now), and price inflation increases in food, energy and begins to spill over into the general CPI.

  • I don’t have a prediction. I do believe that whoever wins will suffer from the polarization and the gridlock which will make it hard to do anything more than housekeeping. I know whom I prefer (Romney) and believe that the polling and media may be hiding some of the anti-Obama support that will show Romney stronger than expected but I am not sure it will be enough. In any case such a close election will do little to help us forge a national consensus or approach the mountain of problems before us with anything more than the blame game and name calling. Conservatives have to learn that it is not enough to be against something and liberals have to learn that the well is empty and even favored social programs will have to change. Whether this election can teach this message is beyond me. What I do know is that the way we Americans talk about our elected leaders it is no wonder than good people do not seek office.

  • I don’t have a prediction. I do believe that whoever wins will suffer from the polarization and the gridlock which will make it hard to do anything more than housekeeping. I know whom I prefer (Romney) and believe that the polling and media may be hiding some of the anti-Obama support that will show Romney stronger than expected but I am not sure it will be enough. In any case such a close election will do little to help us forge a national consensus or approach the mountain of problems before us with anything more than the blame game and name calling. Conservatives have to learn that it is not enough to be against something and liberals have to learn that the well is empty and even favored social programs will have to change. Whether this election can teach this message is beyond me. What I do know is that the way we Americans talk about our elected leaders it is no wonder than good people do not seek office.

  • Jason

    Obama 303
    Romney 238

    Maybe an Obama popular vote win by 2% or so, something like 50 to 48% or so, that number probably depends on thing like Sandy aftermath, 3rd party turnout some places, etc.

    I don’t want another four years of Obama, but that is the way I see it.

    Obama has not trailed in any electoral calculation this election year – not once. Something like 95% of the national polls taken have always had Obama in the lead or tied. The horse race reporting aside, it’s been a small – minded, banal and middling campaign that never was in great doubt, close, but never in great doubt.

    I’m more curious about what starts happening on Wednesday in conservative land. Will there be a GOP “civil war”? Recriminations? Digging in harder on the Congressional level? I dunno. All of the above and more I suspect.

    I suspect there will be several stages of grief involved – starting with voter fraud allegations or other tomfooleries.

    Things is, Romney was just a bad GOP candidate, among a worse GOP primary field. But figuring out how a he lost to a middling to liberal President in bad to sluggish economic times will drive folks crazy.

  • Jason

    Obama 303
    Romney 238

    Maybe an Obama popular vote win by 2% or so, something like 50 to 48% or so, that number probably depends on thing like Sandy aftermath, 3rd party turnout some places, etc.

    I don’t want another four years of Obama, but that is the way I see it.

    Obama has not trailed in any electoral calculation this election year – not once. Something like 95% of the national polls taken have always had Obama in the lead or tied. The horse race reporting aside, it’s been a small – minded, banal and middling campaign that never was in great doubt, close, but never in great doubt.

    I’m more curious about what starts happening on Wednesday in conservative land. Will there be a GOP “civil war”? Recriminations? Digging in harder on the Congressional level? I dunno. All of the above and more I suspect.

    I suspect there will be several stages of grief involved – starting with voter fraud allegations or other tomfooleries.

    Things is, Romney was just a bad GOP candidate, among a worse GOP primary field. But figuring out how a he lost to a middling to liberal President in bad to sluggish economic times will drive folks crazy.

  • Jimmy Veith

    My brother is good at predictions. I am a little better.

    Obama: 332
    Romney: 206

    Popular vote: Obama: 51%, Romney: 48%, Others: 1%

  • Jimmy Veith

    My brother is good at predictions. I am a little better.

    Obama: 332
    Romney: 206

    Popular vote: Obama: 51%, Romney: 48%, Others: 1%

  • Cincinnatus

    I do think that one is fairly delusional if one is predicting a landslide in either direction.

  • Cincinnatus

    I do think that one is fairly delusional if one is predicting a landslide in either direction.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    I predict a solid win for the Media. And punditry. Whatever the voting outcome is. And lets not forget, goofy maps.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    I predict a solid win for the Media. And punditry. Whatever the voting outcome is. And lets not forget, goofy maps.

  • kerner

    Cincinnatus @14:

    Why?

  • kerner

    Cincinnatus @14:

    Why?

  • larry

    Cincinnatus @ 14, I agree, that’s the real prediction.

  • larry

    Cincinnatus @ 14, I agree, that’s the real prediction.

  • larry

    “Conservatives have to learn that it is not enough to be against something and liberals have to learn that the well is empty and even favored social programs will have to change”

    I think that’s the best summary of it all!

  • larry

    “Conservatives have to learn that it is not enough to be against something and liberals have to learn that the well is empty and even favored social programs will have to change”

    I think that’s the best summary of it all!

  • fjsteve

    Since we’re making predictions that aren’t really predictions, I predict the government will win.

  • fjsteve

    Since we’re making predictions that aren’t really predictions, I predict the government will win.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    I agree with Larry, that comment by Rev Peters is spot-on!

    Ironically, of all people in this world, I have recently been favorably surprised by comments from the Liberal party leadership contender here in Canada, Justin Trudeau (yes, he is THAT Trudeau’s son, but not his ideological heir, it appears):

    So what would a new Liberal agenda look like? First, it will be based on evidence, not ideology. This may be an old-fashioned idea in today’s political climate, but I believe that policy should be based on facts. The problems that middle class Canadians are facing are real and complex. They won’t be solved with simple, easy answers.(/blockquote>

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    I agree with Larry, that comment by Rev Peters is spot-on!

    Ironically, of all people in this world, I have recently been favorably surprised by comments from the Liberal party leadership contender here in Canada, Justin Trudeau (yes, he is THAT Trudeau’s son, but not his ideological heir, it appears):

    So what would a new Liberal agenda look like? First, it will be based on evidence, not ideology. This may be an old-fashioned idea in today’s political climate, but I believe that policy should be based on facts. The problems that middle class Canadians are facing are real and complex. They won’t be solved with simple, easy answers.(/blockquote>

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Quote closed, sorry.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Quote closed, sorry.

  • MarkB

    My prediction is that Romney will win with a popular vote of between +4-5% and over 300 electors. The Main Stream Media has been trying to cover for Obama and his administration since he was inaugurated and most current polls are skewed heavily towards Democrats showing up in higher numbers than they did in 2008, which won’t happen. And even with the polls skewed they are starting to show Romney with a slight lead.

    Along with that the idea that the independants are going +22% towards Romney cannot be anything other than a no vote on the four years of Obama.

  • MarkB

    My prediction is that Romney will win with a popular vote of between +4-5% and over 300 electors. The Main Stream Media has been trying to cover for Obama and his administration since he was inaugurated and most current polls are skewed heavily towards Democrats showing up in higher numbers than they did in 2008, which won’t happen. And even with the polls skewed they are starting to show Romney with a slight lead.

    Along with that the idea that the independants are going +22% towards Romney cannot be anything other than a no vote on the four years of Obama.

  • Tom Hering

    I predict I’ll be able to come back here on Wednesday and ask how well the theory panned out that the media was deliberately distorting the race.

  • Tom Hering

    I predict I’ll be able to come back here on Wednesday and ask how well the theory panned out that the media was deliberately distorting the race.

  • Steve Billingsley

    I am still sticking with a prediction of a fairly sizable Romney win (not a landslide, somewhere between Bush’s 2004 margin and Obama’s 2008 margin). But the biggest difficulty with predictions here is how bad polling his been this round. And it isn’t new. See the linked post showing just how many pollsters have been wrong over the last 10 years.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332501/voters-have-not-been-kind-pollsters-2002

    The truth is that we are all guessing.

  • Steve Billingsley

    I am still sticking with a prediction of a fairly sizable Romney win (not a landslide, somewhere between Bush’s 2004 margin and Obama’s 2008 margin). But the biggest difficulty with predictions here is how bad polling his been this round. And it isn’t new. See the linked post showing just how many pollsters have been wrong over the last 10 years.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332501/voters-have-not-been-kind-pollsters-2002

    The truth is that we are all guessing.

  • sg

    “I do believe that whoever wins will suffer from the polarization and the gridlock which will make it hard to do anything more than housekeeping.”

    ¡Ojala, que!

  • sg

    “I do believe that whoever wins will suffer from the polarization and the gridlock which will make it hard to do anything more than housekeeping.”

    ¡Ojala, que!

  • Abby

    Voting for Romney. I cannot follow all these numbers, so I will go with the opinion of a valid expert. Michael Barone predicts Romney will win by 315. He’s never been wrong, it is said. Dick Morris says Romney in a landslide by 353. I will be surprised if Obama wins. But, then again, I won’t be surprised. The whole thing will be a surprise either way.

  • Abby

    Voting for Romney. I cannot follow all these numbers, so I will go with the opinion of a valid expert. Michael Barone predicts Romney will win by 315. He’s never been wrong, it is said. Dick Morris says Romney in a landslide by 353. I will be surprised if Obama wins. But, then again, I won’t be surprised. The whole thing will be a surprise either way.

  • Darren A. Jones

    I am going with Jason @21’s numbers. I think Obama wins both the popular vote (because more people like him and his policies than they either like or trust Romney) and the electoral vote (just cracking 300).

  • Darren A. Jones

    I am going with Jason @21’s numbers. I think Obama wins both the popular vote (because more people like him and his policies than they either like or trust Romney) and the electoral vote (just cracking 300).

  • Jon

    I am still predicting that we will see a lot more red on the map this year in surprising places.

    Historically, a sitting president with all the indicator numbers during his presidency as bad as they have been for Obama just shouldn’t win.

    The key is in the independents, which way they will break. I predict they will heavily favor the challenger.

    I fear that Cinncinatus may be right, it just won’t matter much. Because as Pr Peters points out, it will be a stalemate between which ever president and Congress.

    Harry Reid is already on record saying he won’t work with Romney. (And they’re both Mormons!)

  • Jon

    I am still predicting that we will see a lot more red on the map this year in surprising places.

    Historically, a sitting president with all the indicator numbers during his presidency as bad as they have been for Obama just shouldn’t win.

    The key is in the independents, which way they will break. I predict they will heavily favor the challenger.

    I fear that Cinncinatus may be right, it just won’t matter much. Because as Pr Peters points out, it will be a stalemate between which ever president and Congress.

    Harry Reid is already on record saying he won’t work with Romney. (And they’re both Mormons!)

  • TE Schroeder

    It was on the weekend before the presidential election that the Redskins lost, which also means that the incumbent loses. Have the Redskins ever been wrong?????

  • TE Schroeder

    It was on the weekend before the presidential election that the Redskins lost, which also means that the incumbent loses. Have the Redskins ever been wrong?????

  • rlewer

    Are there more people getting free Obama phones than paying for the “free” Obama phones? Logically, the majority should win with the vote for Romney. (Does it really take 250 free minutes per month to make emergency phone calls?)

    If the race is between the votes of the newscasters, it will be Obama by a landslide.

  • rlewer

    Are there more people getting free Obama phones than paying for the “free” Obama phones? Logically, the majority should win with the vote for Romney. (Does it really take 250 free minutes per month to make emergency phone calls?)

    If the race is between the votes of the newscasters, it will be Obama by a landslide.

  • Do you, or does anyone else, think the way the FedGov handled the Sandy crisis will impact the vote tomorrow? For that matter, how many millions are still in a position in that area of the country where voting may be the last thing on their minds tomorrow.

    And isn’t that, by and large, Obama territory?

    Just wondering.

  • Do you, or does anyone else, think the way the FedGov handled the Sandy crisis will impact the vote tomorrow? For that matter, how many millions are still in a position in that area of the country where voting may be the last thing on their minds tomorrow.

    And isn’t that, by and large, Obama territory?

    Just wondering.

  • Cincinnatus

    Paul T. McCain,

    I don’t think Sandy is going to have anything more than a statistically negligible impact on the election. On the one hand, the Administration’s response to the catastrophe has been, at worst, just what could be expected and, at best, worthy of praise–like the praise offered by Chris Christie. Certainly, the response has not been worthy of the criticism Bush received after Katrina.

    On the other hand, the storm’s aftermath is only likely to keep a few thousand voters from the polls–if that. Certainly not enough to turn New York red.

    So, yeah. Sandy is politically irrelevant, I think, at the national level.

  • Cincinnatus

    Paul T. McCain,

    I don’t think Sandy is going to have anything more than a statistically negligible impact on the election. On the one hand, the Administration’s response to the catastrophe has been, at worst, just what could be expected and, at best, worthy of praise–like the praise offered by Chris Christie. Certainly, the response has not been worthy of the criticism Bush received after Katrina.

    On the other hand, the storm’s aftermath is only likely to keep a few thousand voters from the polls–if that. Certainly not enough to turn New York red.

    So, yeah. Sandy is politically irrelevant, I think, at the national level.

  • Joe

    Interesting you say that Cincy. The sense I’m getting from family out east is that they are none to pleased with the response from local or federal agencies.

    Also, I was at a hockey game on Friday with a known Obama supporter and his take on the administration’s handling of Sandy was that it showed him that Bush was treated unfairly after Katrina.

    I don’t think it will impact the election (N.Y. is not going to turn Red) but I don’t think people are impressed with the response effort.

  • Joe

    Interesting you say that Cincy. The sense I’m getting from family out east is that they are none to pleased with the response from local or federal agencies.

    Also, I was at a hockey game on Friday with a known Obama supporter and his take on the administration’s handling of Sandy was that it showed him that Bush was treated unfairly after Katrina.

    I don’t think it will impact the election (N.Y. is not going to turn Red) but I don’t think people are impressed with the response effort.

  • Cincinnatus

    Joe@42:

    Bush was treated unfairly after Katrina: the government can’t be expected to repair the world immediately after a catastrophe. No government has that kind of power, and we shouldn’t give it that kind of power.

    And, understandably, those who live in neighborhoods that were destroyed are going to be lashing out right about now.

    But Obama has made strenuous efforts to avoid the appearance of post-Katrina Bush. And I think he’s succeeding, more or less. Maybe with the complicity of the mass media. Anyway, do you know anyone who is going to change his/her vote from Obama as a result of his storm response? I’m just not sensing the general rage that attended the response to Katrina.

  • Cincinnatus

    Joe@42:

    Bush was treated unfairly after Katrina: the government can’t be expected to repair the world immediately after a catastrophe. No government has that kind of power, and we shouldn’t give it that kind of power.

    And, understandably, those who live in neighborhoods that were destroyed are going to be lashing out right about now.

    But Obama has made strenuous efforts to avoid the appearance of post-Katrina Bush. And I think he’s succeeding, more or less. Maybe with the complicity of the mass media. Anyway, do you know anyone who is going to change his/her vote from Obama as a result of his storm response? I’m just not sensing the general rage that attended the response to Katrina.

  • Joe

    The Obama supporter said it gave him pause. I don’t know if it will or not. Of my family out east — I didn’t ask. Most of them are pretty hard core lefties, but I could see a few of them peeling off.

    I agree in the main, that it will not be a huge factor in the election. Other than it may keep the popular vote total for Obama low Secunia people may view voting as less important as compared to finding somewhere to shower.

  • Joe

    The Obama supporter said it gave him pause. I don’t know if it will or not. Of my family out east — I didn’t ask. Most of them are pretty hard core lefties, but I could see a few of them peeling off.

    I agree in the main, that it will not be a huge factor in the election. Other than it may keep the popular vote total for Obama low Secunia people may view voting as less important as compared to finding somewhere to shower.

  • DonS

    Wow! As you know, I have been predicting a comfortable Romney win for a long time. It’s gratifying to see so many others now falling into that camp as well. We can feel it, though — there is a palpable fervor that Obama needs to go. This has been a weird year politically, and I have been following politics for a long time — pretty closely since the 1972 election. I don’t recall ever seeing a campaign where the leadership of each campaign genuinely believes that their candidate is going to win easily, but such is the case this year. One of the campaigns is going to be sorely disappointed.

    I do believe that Romney is going to win comfortably. This does not mean it will be comfortable tomorrow night, as a number of states are likely to be closely contested. But, ultimately, he will win the EC by a comfortable margin. The PV margin will be between 2 and 3 points, something like 51-48, similar to Bush’s win in 2004. In the EC, Romney will win VA in a nailbiter, NC, CO, and FL much more easily. OH will be tough, but Romney wins by 1-2 points. This gives him the election, with 275 EV’s. I also think he picks up IA, NH, and WI. That’s 295. He has a legitimate shot at PA and, to a lesser extent, MN. For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.

    The dark horse is New Jersey. No one’s talking about it, because NJ was not at all in play prior to Sandy, although the polling has generally favored Obama by only 10-12 points or so. However, the Democrats in NJ roll up most of their margins in the northern urban areas bordering NYC. These areas have been devastated by Sandy — turnout should be way, way down. I would not be surprised if Romney chose to have his one PA campaign event in Bucks County, in the Philadelphia media market, because it also covers south Jersey. Of course, no one is going to talk about New Jersey right now, for obvious reasons, in either campaign, and certainly no one is going to campaign there, but both campaigns have to be thinking of NJ as a wild card that could flip to Romney.

    The polling is a mess this year, particularly at the state level, because the state pollsters are largely colleges on very limited budgets, SurveyUSA, which also polls on a thin budget, Rasmussen, and PPP, a very partisan Democratic pollster. Because response rates have dropped to half of what they were even in 2008, pollsters have to make twice as many calls to get a representative sample. As a result, PPP, SurveyUSA, and most of the university polls are cutting their sample sizes significantly, and also practically eliminating their likely voter screens. In some of the most Obama-oriented state polls, 95% of adult respondents have been declared to be likely voters, when in typical presidential elections only about 60% of eligible adults actually vote. This creates a significant Democratic skew. Also, in weighting their results, the Obama campaign and many public pollsters are assuming an electorate that looks like 2008. These assumptions don’t square, however, with measured voter intensity on the Republican side, Gallup and Pew polling which shows a current +R voter identification, rather than the + 7 D electorate of 2008 (when the voter id polls showed +12 D, according to Rasmussen), nor do they square with reporting that the Republicans are poised to hold almost all of the House seats they won in 2010, and perhaps even gain 1-5 seats.

    Rasmussen just now reported its latest party identification polling, for October. 39% Republican, 33% Democratic – a +6 R margin! He reports that this is the largest +R margin he has ever polled.

    In the face of all of that data, it is hard to see how the Obama campaign, Nate Silver, and the state public pollsters are right about their predictions. But, we shall see ….If the electorate is really +6 R, then it will be a huge night for Romney, much like 1980 when Reagan swept over Carter and won the election in an hour.

  • DonS

    Wow! As you know, I have been predicting a comfortable Romney win for a long time. It’s gratifying to see so many others now falling into that camp as well. We can feel it, though — there is a palpable fervor that Obama needs to go. This has been a weird year politically, and I have been following politics for a long time — pretty closely since the 1972 election. I don’t recall ever seeing a campaign where the leadership of each campaign genuinely believes that their candidate is going to win easily, but such is the case this year. One of the campaigns is going to be sorely disappointed.

    I do believe that Romney is going to win comfortably. This does not mean it will be comfortable tomorrow night, as a number of states are likely to be closely contested. But, ultimately, he will win the EC by a comfortable margin. The PV margin will be between 2 and 3 points, something like 51-48, similar to Bush’s win in 2004. In the EC, Romney will win VA in a nailbiter, NC, CO, and FL much more easily. OH will be tough, but Romney wins by 1-2 points. This gives him the election, with 275 EV’s. I also think he picks up IA, NH, and WI. That’s 295. He has a legitimate shot at PA and, to a lesser extent, MN. For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.

    The dark horse is New Jersey. No one’s talking about it, because NJ was not at all in play prior to Sandy, although the polling has generally favored Obama by only 10-12 points or so. However, the Democrats in NJ roll up most of their margins in the northern urban areas bordering NYC. These areas have been devastated by Sandy — turnout should be way, way down. I would not be surprised if Romney chose to have his one PA campaign event in Bucks County, in the Philadelphia media market, because it also covers south Jersey. Of course, no one is going to talk about New Jersey right now, for obvious reasons, in either campaign, and certainly no one is going to campaign there, but both campaigns have to be thinking of NJ as a wild card that could flip to Romney.

    The polling is a mess this year, particularly at the state level, because the state pollsters are largely colleges on very limited budgets, SurveyUSA, which also polls on a thin budget, Rasmussen, and PPP, a very partisan Democratic pollster. Because response rates have dropped to half of what they were even in 2008, pollsters have to make twice as many calls to get a representative sample. As a result, PPP, SurveyUSA, and most of the university polls are cutting their sample sizes significantly, and also practically eliminating their likely voter screens. In some of the most Obama-oriented state polls, 95% of adult respondents have been declared to be likely voters, when in typical presidential elections only about 60% of eligible adults actually vote. This creates a significant Democratic skew. Also, in weighting their results, the Obama campaign and many public pollsters are assuming an electorate that looks like 2008. These assumptions don’t square, however, with measured voter intensity on the Republican side, Gallup and Pew polling which shows a current +R voter identification, rather than the + 7 D electorate of 2008 (when the voter id polls showed +12 D, according to Rasmussen), nor do they square with reporting that the Republicans are poised to hold almost all of the House seats they won in 2010, and perhaps even gain 1-5 seats.

    Rasmussen just now reported its latest party identification polling, for October. 39% Republican, 33% Democratic – a +6 R margin! He reports that this is the largest +R margin he has ever polled.

    In the face of all of that data, it is hard to see how the Obama campaign, Nate Silver, and the state public pollsters are right about their predictions. But, we shall see ….If the electorate is really +6 R, then it will be a huge night for Romney, much like 1980 when Reagan swept over Carter and won the election in an hour.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Ok, why not putting your money where your mouth is?

    So, if Obama wins, all the Romney supporters buy me beer whenever I’m in their cities. If Romney wins, the Obama guys can pay.

    As an impartial Canadian, I’ll referee it all 🙂 🙂

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Ok, why not putting your money where your mouth is?

    So, if Obama wins, all the Romney supporters buy me beer whenever I’m in their cities. If Romney wins, the Obama guys can pay.

    As an impartial Canadian, I’ll referee it all 🙂 🙂

  • Obama wins, and we’ll know it by at least midnight Mountain time.

    The national vote, which remains nothing but a point of trivia (and occasionally a point of obsession by partisans whose side lost), will be very close — too close for me to make a guess.

    Both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have Obama getting 300+ electoral votes. I’ll sandbag it and guess he’ll get 290.

    The easiest prediction, however, is that those who have been going on and on about biases in the polling — which is the media’s fault, of course — (no shortage of them in this thread) will be flat-out wrong. The joke that is “UnSkewed Polls” has Romney with 359 electoral votes. Ha. Ha!

  • Obama wins, and we’ll know it by at least midnight Mountain time.

    The national vote, which remains nothing but a point of trivia (and occasionally a point of obsession by partisans whose side lost), will be very close — too close for me to make a guess.

    Both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have Obama getting 300+ electoral votes. I’ll sandbag it and guess he’ll get 290.

    The easiest prediction, however, is that those who have been going on and on about biases in the polling — which is the media’s fault, of course — (no shortage of them in this thread) will be flat-out wrong. The joke that is “UnSkewed Polls” has Romney with 359 electoral votes. Ha. Ha!

  • helen

    Cincinnatus @ 14 +100

    Not from my level in the 99% either!

  • helen

    Cincinnatus @ 14 +100

    Not from my level in the 99% either!

  • Cincinnatus

    tODD@47:

    Obama may very well win the electoral college–I’m predicting Romney wins the popular vote–but the only reason you’ll know by Mountain Time is because the Pacific Coast is so utterly predictable, not because the election will be an Obama landslide.

    Either way, the polling has been biased. Not due to a liberal conspiracy, as we discussed some weeks ago, but because the polls–at least until very recently–were premised on faulty assumptions. That’s a fact. How radically were the polls “skewed”? Couldn’t say, but my faith in the polls is very, very low this year.

    Also, don’t count Romney out in the electoral college. My own EC map has Obama winning by only one or two states. And those states–Ohio and Wisconsin–are very much within Romney’s grasp, in fact. So is New Hampshire and even Michigan. So we’ll see.

    /again, I’m only interested in a detached, descriptive sense. Both candidates are stooges.

  • Cincinnatus

    tODD@47:

    Obama may very well win the electoral college–I’m predicting Romney wins the popular vote–but the only reason you’ll know by Mountain Time is because the Pacific Coast is so utterly predictable, not because the election will be an Obama landslide.

    Either way, the polling has been biased. Not due to a liberal conspiracy, as we discussed some weeks ago, but because the polls–at least until very recently–were premised on faulty assumptions. That’s a fact. How radically were the polls “skewed”? Couldn’t say, but my faith in the polls is very, very low this year.

    Also, don’t count Romney out in the electoral college. My own EC map has Obama winning by only one or two states. And those states–Ohio and Wisconsin–are very much within Romney’s grasp, in fact. So is New Hampshire and even Michigan. So we’ll see.

    /again, I’m only interested in a detached, descriptive sense. Both candidates are stooges.

  • Cincinnatus

    I was going to add that I half-hope Romney loses simply to send a message to Republican elites to stop nominating unprincipled half-wits. But they should have learned that in 2008, so said Republican elites are officially and hopelessly moronic twits who will probably conclude that a Romney defeat is only further proof that “moderates” with great hair are the best choice.

  • Cincinnatus

    I was going to add that I half-hope Romney loses simply to send a message to Republican elites to stop nominating unprincipled half-wits. But they should have learned that in 2008, so said Republican elites are officially and hopelessly moronic twits who will probably conclude that a Romney defeat is only further proof that “moderates” with great hair are the best choice.

  • helen

    McCain @ 40
    Do you, or does anyone else, think the way the FedGov handled the Sandy crisis will impact the vote tomorrow?

    Do you think that the Red Cross, begging in every forum as usual for a week before they even began to show up at the disaster scene, will be replaced on cell phones contributions by the Salvation Army, which was actually there at the World Trade Center the same morning (and every disaster I have personal knowledge of 5 days to a week or two before the Red Cross showed up)??

  • helen

    McCain @ 40
    Do you, or does anyone else, think the way the FedGov handled the Sandy crisis will impact the vote tomorrow?

    Do you think that the Red Cross, begging in every forum as usual for a week before they even began to show up at the disaster scene, will be replaced on cell phones contributions by the Salvation Army, which was actually there at the World Trade Center the same morning (and every disaster I have personal knowledge of 5 days to a week or two before the Red Cross showed up)??

  • helen

    C @ 50 +100
    I was going to add that I half-hope Romney loses simply to send a message to Republican elites to stop nominating unprincipled half-wits.

    I don’t suppose it will convince ’em. Anyone with a brain and a conscience couldn’t be “managed” as well for their own ends.

  • helen

    C @ 50 +100
    I was going to add that I half-hope Romney loses simply to send a message to Republican elites to stop nominating unprincipled half-wits.

    I don’t suppose it will convince ’em. Anyone with a brain and a conscience couldn’t be “managed” as well for their own ends.

  • Cincinnatus (@49), my real interest in asking is to up the signal-noise ratio (read: nonpartisan-partisan ratio) in this conversation, but to what “faulty assumptions” are you referring?

    Also, I did predict (read: guess) at Obama winning with 290 electoral votes. That’s hardly counting out Romney in the electoral college. I’m not calling for a landslide. Indeed, that’s within your “one or two state” margin of victory.

    And my point was not so much to put an emphasis on Mountain Time. I just picked a time zone. The point was that we’d know the final result not super early in the evening, but without my having to stay up all night having to refresh my browser. I predict I’ll go to sleep knowing the next President.

    And that, yeah, it won’t make a huge difference in my life. It’ll just be interesting.

  • Cincinnatus (@49), my real interest in asking is to up the signal-noise ratio (read: nonpartisan-partisan ratio) in this conversation, but to what “faulty assumptions” are you referring?

    Also, I did predict (read: guess) at Obama winning with 290 electoral votes. That’s hardly counting out Romney in the electoral college. I’m not calling for a landslide. Indeed, that’s within your “one or two state” margin of victory.

    And my point was not so much to put an emphasis on Mountain Time. I just picked a time zone. The point was that we’d know the final result not super early in the evening, but without my having to stay up all night having to refresh my browser. I predict I’ll go to sleep knowing the next President.

    And that, yeah, it won’t make a huge difference in my life. It’ll just be interesting.

  • Cincinnatus

    tODD@53:

    I don’t really want to reopen the poll-skew debate, but among the faulty assumptions were giving an artificial bump to Democrats based on 2008 exit-poll numbers. Problematic because 2008 was a record-breaking banner year for Democratic turnout unlikely to be repeated this year.

    But yeah, 290 is a fairly close electoral result. I’m actually predicting that it’ll be even closer, but who can say? You aren’t predicting a landslide, like DonS and Jimmy Veith, which is the main thing.

  • Cincinnatus

    tODD@53:

    I don’t really want to reopen the poll-skew debate, but among the faulty assumptions were giving an artificial bump to Democrats based on 2008 exit-poll numbers. Problematic because 2008 was a record-breaking banner year for Democratic turnout unlikely to be repeated this year.

    But yeah, 290 is a fairly close electoral result. I’m actually predicting that it’ll be even closer, but who can say? You aren’t predicting a landslide, like DonS and Jimmy Veith, which is the main thing.

  • DonS

    Is a 2-3 point PV win a landslide, Cincinnatus? I predicted Romney at 295 EV, with a decent shot at 315, if he can pull off PA. That’s because so many of the swing states are polling within the margin of error, and I agree with you that this is because the pollsters have constructed the wrong electorate. If each of those polls tip 2-3 points toward Romney, you have a big swing in EV.

  • DonS

    Is a 2-3 point PV win a landslide, Cincinnatus? I predicted Romney at 295 EV, with a decent shot at 315, if he can pull off PA. That’s because so many of the swing states are polling within the margin of error, and I agree with you that this is because the pollsters have constructed the wrong electorate. If each of those polls tip 2-3 points toward Romney, you have a big swing in EV.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Just for fun: 261-277 Obama.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Just for fun: 261-277 Obama.

  • DonS (@55), we can read what you wrote. You did not “predict Romney at 295 EV”. You said (@45), “For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.”

  • DonS (@55), we can read what you wrote. You did not “predict Romney at 295 EV”. You said (@45), “For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.”

  • I predict I may just about survive this interminable US election, and I look forward to a slightly normalised blogosphere, and slightly less ridiculous Facebook and Twitter feeds. At least that’s what I’m praying for. As it were.

  • I predict I may just about survive this interminable US election, and I look forward to a slightly normalised blogosphere, and slightly less ridiculous Facebook and Twitter feeds. At least that’s what I’m praying for. As it were.

  • DonS

    tODD @ 57: My prediction is that Romney wins with 295 EV’s, with a reach to 315 if he can pull off PA. However, regardless of which number it is, neither is a landslide. If Romney get 315, then Obama gets the remaining 218. Those are not landslide numbers, particularly if the overall PV is 2-3 pt. margin. That’s a comfortable win, beyond the margin of error and endless recount mania.

    Now, if Rasmussen and Pew voter id numbers are correct, in their most recent party id polls, showing between a 3 and 6 point Republican edge, then the pollsters are way off in their constructed electorate models, and we could see a landslide. But, I’m not predicting that, just as I am not predicting that Romney wins NJ. Just commenting that the data is conflicting and strange.

  • DonS

    tODD @ 57: My prediction is that Romney wins with 295 EV’s, with a reach to 315 if he can pull off PA. However, regardless of which number it is, neither is a landslide. If Romney get 315, then Obama gets the remaining 218. Those are not landslide numbers, particularly if the overall PV is 2-3 pt. margin. That’s a comfortable win, beyond the margin of error and endless recount mania.

    Now, if Rasmussen and Pew voter id numbers are correct, in their most recent party id polls, showing between a 3 and 6 point Republican edge, then the pollsters are way off in their constructed electorate models, and we could see a landslide. But, I’m not predicting that, just as I am not predicting that Romney wins NJ. Just commenting that the data is conflicting and strange.

  • Cincinnatus

    DonS@59:

    While all definitions of “landslide” are more or less arbitrary, I think 315 EC votes is getting pretty close to the point at which most reasonable people would agree that a landslide has occurred. That’s a difference of almost 100 votes/30%. I mean, it’s not Reagan in 1984, but I wouldn’t call it close.

  • Cincinnatus

    DonS@59:

    While all definitions of “landslide” are more or less arbitrary, I think 315 EC votes is getting pretty close to the point at which most reasonable people would agree that a landslide has occurred. That’s a difference of almost 100 votes/30%. I mean, it’s not Reagan in 1984, but I wouldn’t call it close.

  • My prediction with the notable states where it has been close, or trending that way, in parentheses:

    Romney – 315 (NH, PA, OH, WI, VA, FL, NC, IA, CO)
    Obama – 223 (MI, MN, NV, ME-2)

    The biggest factors not being discussed is the gross over-sampling of the Democrat vote in nearly all polls. 2010 cannot be ignored, and neither can the Evangelical vote–both are by pollsters.

    And on the Senate side of things:

    Republicans – 50 (PA, VA, IN, WI, MT)
    Democrats – 50 (MA, CT, OH, FL)

  • My prediction with the notable states where it has been close, or trending that way, in parentheses:

    Romney – 315 (NH, PA, OH, WI, VA, FL, NC, IA, CO)
    Obama – 223 (MI, MN, NV, ME-2)

    The biggest factors not being discussed is the gross over-sampling of the Democrat vote in nearly all polls. 2010 cannot be ignored, and neither can the Evangelical vote–both are by pollsters.

    And on the Senate side of things:

    Republicans – 50 (PA, VA, IN, WI, MT)
    Democrats – 50 (MA, CT, OH, FL)

  • DonS

    Cincinnatus @ 60: I didn’t call it “close”. I called it “comfortable”. But a 2-3 pt. PV win is hardly a landslide. If that is your definition of one, then I guess I am predicting one. But, that’s ridiculous.

  • DonS

    Cincinnatus @ 60: I didn’t call it “close”. I called it “comfortable”. But a 2-3 pt. PV win is hardly a landslide. If that is your definition of one, then I guess I am predicting one. But, that’s ridiculous.

  • Cincinnatus

    DonS:

    We’re not talking about the popular vote, which, as tODD notes, is essentially irrelevant. I think the common definition of a PV landslide is ~20%–which isn’t going to happen.

    But we’re arguing semantics. My opinion–and it’s just my opinion–is that the EC margin will be closer than you’re predicting. But who knows?

  • Cincinnatus

    DonS:

    We’re not talking about the popular vote, which, as tODD notes, is essentially irrelevant. I think the common definition of a PV landslide is ~20%–which isn’t going to happen.

    But we’re arguing semantics. My opinion–and it’s just my opinion–is that the EC margin will be closer than you’re predicting. But who knows?

  • DonS, is it really that hard to pick just one number?

    You (@45):

    I also think he picks up IA, NH, and WI. That’s 295. He has a legitimate shot at PA and, to a lesser extent, MN. For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.

    You again (@55):

    I predicted Romney at 295 EV, with a decent shot at 315, if he can pull off PA.

    And, yet again (@59):

    My prediction is that Romney wins with 295 EV’s, with a reach to 315 if he can pull off PA.

    So initially you guessed 315. But you now seem to be maintaing that your actual prediction is 295, even though you keep qualifying it as possibly actually being 315, you know, depending.

    Pick one. Please.

  • DonS, is it really that hard to pick just one number?

    You (@45):

    I also think he picks up IA, NH, and WI. That’s 295. He has a legitimate shot at PA and, to a lesser extent, MN. For the sake of it, I say he gets PA, but not MN, for a total of 315.

    You again (@55):

    I predicted Romney at 295 EV, with a decent shot at 315, if he can pull off PA.

    And, yet again (@59):

    My prediction is that Romney wins with 295 EV’s, with a reach to 315 if he can pull off PA.

    So initially you guessed 315. But you now seem to be maintaing that your actual prediction is 295, even though you keep qualifying it as possibly actually being 315, you know, depending.

    Pick one. Please.

  • DonS

    tODD @ 64: I laid out an analysis of my prediction and where I thought the line would probably be — PA. That’s my prediction. My guess is Romney probably falls just short of PA, so he gets 295, but it’s not much of a reach for him to win it.

  • DonS

    tODD @ 64: I laid out an analysis of my prediction and where I thought the line would probably be — PA. That’s my prediction. My guess is Romney probably falls just short of PA, so he gets 295, but it’s not much of a reach for him to win it.

  • Jon H.

    DonS @65 So your ‘guess’ and your ‘prediction’ don’t match? I predict you’ll try to rationalize that, but my guess is you won’t succeed.

  • Jon H.

    DonS @65 So your ‘guess’ and your ‘prediction’ don’t match? I predict you’ll try to rationalize that, but my guess is you won’t succeed.

  • DonS

    How do you figure my “guess” and “prediction” don’t match, Jon H.?

  • DonS

    How do you figure my “guess” and “prediction” don’t match, Jon H.?

  • kerner

    Cincinnatus:

    Well you didn’t answer me directly, but at least you commented to somebody else that the problem with Romney is that he is in your estimation, an “unprincipled half-wit.” But I take some issue that he was “chosen by Republican elites”. He was chosen by a series of primary elections and caucuses by people many of whom probably wanted to nominate someone else, but who were presented with quarter-wits (only some of whom were more highly principled than Romney) as their only alternatives. Plenty of rank and file Republicans wanted Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich or Herman Caine or Michele Bachman to be better candidates than Mitt…but alas!

    So Romney started out with luke warm approval from his base, and probably rightly so given his standing as an unprincipled half-wit. But then he made some strategic moves and named a bona fide conservative running mate (with loads more credibility than Sarah Palin) and convinced a lot of people, including me, that he might even be a three-quarter-wit. And while he might be unprincipled, at least he is pandering to some principles that I can generally support. And who might even keep some of the political deals he has made with the political forces who hold to those principles.

    All that adds up to Romney being light years ahead of the President who I perceive as diametrically opposed to all my political principles.

    But while I remember you occasionally listing Romney’s short-comings, I do not recall you saying what you would like to see affirmatively present in a presidential candidate. So, we’ve never been able to discuss whether it might, or might not, be possible to squeeze any of it out of an unprincipled half-wit like Romney. Would you care to elaborate on that now?

  • kerner

    Cincinnatus:

    Well you didn’t answer me directly, but at least you commented to somebody else that the problem with Romney is that he is in your estimation, an “unprincipled half-wit.” But I take some issue that he was “chosen by Republican elites”. He was chosen by a series of primary elections and caucuses by people many of whom probably wanted to nominate someone else, but who were presented with quarter-wits (only some of whom were more highly principled than Romney) as their only alternatives. Plenty of rank and file Republicans wanted Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich or Herman Caine or Michele Bachman to be better candidates than Mitt…but alas!

    So Romney started out with luke warm approval from his base, and probably rightly so given his standing as an unprincipled half-wit. But then he made some strategic moves and named a bona fide conservative running mate (with loads more credibility than Sarah Palin) and convinced a lot of people, including me, that he might even be a three-quarter-wit. And while he might be unprincipled, at least he is pandering to some principles that I can generally support. And who might even keep some of the political deals he has made with the political forces who hold to those principles.

    All that adds up to Romney being light years ahead of the President who I perceive as diametrically opposed to all my political principles.

    But while I remember you occasionally listing Romney’s short-comings, I do not recall you saying what you would like to see affirmatively present in a presidential candidate. So, we’ve never been able to discuss whether it might, or might not, be possible to squeeze any of it out of an unprincipled half-wit like Romney. Would you care to elaborate on that now?

  • cattail

    One thing not mentioned about the polling issue is the number of people who, like me, all my family and nearly all my friends, have ditched our “land” telephone lines and solely use our cell phones. It’s so wonderful not to be getting all those recorded calls and insistent pollers (whom I always refused to answer anyway)! But it certainly means that polling by telephone is becoming highly inaccurate! I suspect that by the next election, the “land” telephone will have gone the way of the dodo bird.

    I’m not predicting anything because at this point I’m so jaded by all the stupid hype (including a mailbox daily stuffed completely full of campaign literature, which goes straight into my recycle bin unread) that I don’t really care. I’m just glad it’s almost over–I suspect my mail carrier is, too! I need to finish marking my ballot (still working on the numerous state and local measures, which take a long time to read and ponder) and walk it over to the drop box at the library.

  • cattail

    One thing not mentioned about the polling issue is the number of people who, like me, all my family and nearly all my friends, have ditched our “land” telephone lines and solely use our cell phones. It’s so wonderful not to be getting all those recorded calls and insistent pollers (whom I always refused to answer anyway)! But it certainly means that polling by telephone is becoming highly inaccurate! I suspect that by the next election, the “land” telephone will have gone the way of the dodo bird.

    I’m not predicting anything because at this point I’m so jaded by all the stupid hype (including a mailbox daily stuffed completely full of campaign literature, which goes straight into my recycle bin unread) that I don’t really care. I’m just glad it’s almost over–I suspect my mail carrier is, too! I need to finish marking my ballot (still working on the numerous state and local measures, which take a long time to read and ponder) and walk it over to the drop box at the library.

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Kerner, that was an (unintentionally?) funny post!

  • Klasie Kraalogies

    Kerner, that was an (unintentionally?) funny post!

  • kerner

    Whenever I am funny, it is definitely intentional. 😉

    Anyway, I was merely conceding my worthy fellow-commenters point. 😀

  • kerner

    Whenever I am funny, it is definitely intentional. 😉

    Anyway, I was merely conceding my worthy fellow-commenters point. 😀

  • Sam

    Romney: 285, Obama 253.

  • Sam

    Romney: 285, Obama 253.

  • kerner

    I also challenge the proposition that Republican presidential nomonees are chosen by elites for their “great hair”. The last nominated Republican candidate to have great hair was Ronald Reagan. Before him you have to go back to Wendell Wilke.

    Since I have been eligible to vote, other than Reagan: Jimmy Carter’s hair was better than Gerald Ford’s, both Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton had better hair than George H W Bush, Bill Clinton also had better hair than Bob Dole, both Al Gore and John Kerry had better hair than George W Bush, and Barak Obama had better hair than John McCain. Folicly speaking, the Democrats are way out in front of the Republicans.

  • kerner

    I also challenge the proposition that Republican presidential nomonees are chosen by elites for their “great hair”. The last nominated Republican candidate to have great hair was Ronald Reagan. Before him you have to go back to Wendell Wilke.

    Since I have been eligible to vote, other than Reagan: Jimmy Carter’s hair was better than Gerald Ford’s, both Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton had better hair than George H W Bush, Bill Clinton also had better hair than Bob Dole, both Al Gore and John Kerry had better hair than George W Bush, and Barak Obama had better hair than John McCain. Folicly speaking, the Democrats are way out in front of the Republicans.

  • ADB

    The electoral math is on Obama’s side — he has many more ways to put together 270 than does Romney:

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

    It will be close, but Obama will edge …

  • ADB

    The electoral math is on Obama’s side — he has many more ways to put together 270 than does Romney:

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

    It will be close, but Obama will edge …

  • JunkerGeorg

    My question is simply if and how much “voter fraud” plays a role in the elections. Is it as much as 1% of the total, less, or more?

  • JunkerGeorg

    My question is simply if and how much “voter fraud” plays a role in the elections. Is it as much as 1% of the total, less, or more?

  • John C

    On the first Tuesday of November, the nation stops for the Melbourne Cup. I don’t usually bet on the nags or politics but you can bet London to a brick that Obama will win handsomely by a couple of lengths. I”m putting a lot of faith in Nate Silver’s form guide.

  • John C

    On the first Tuesday of November, the nation stops for the Melbourne Cup. I don’t usually bet on the nags or politics but you can bet London to a brick that Obama will win handsomely by a couple of lengths. I”m putting a lot of faith in Nate Silver’s form guide.