World Magazine has been surveying the candidate preferences of over 100 evangelical leaders. As we blogged about a month ago, their pick was Marco Rubio. Today that support is even greater, with 53% of the churchmen saying he is their #1 or #2 choice. The support for Jeff Bush, though, has plummeted.
And Donald Trump is at the very bottom of Republican contenders, with only 5% saying he is #1 or #2, and 81% saying they would never vote for him. That’s rather different from rank-and-file evangelicals, 23% of whom support Trump, though Ben Carson–that other outsider who is also near the top of the polls–has passed him with that demographic at 29%. Carson, the African-American surgeon who is a devout Christian of the Seventh Day Adventist tradition, must not be forgotten.
Strong debate performances catapulted Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina forward by double-digit margins in the second WORLD evangelical insiders survey, while Jeb Bush slumped from second to fourth place.
The findings are from a monthly survey of 103 evangelical leaders and insiders, 88 of whom participated in August (see note below). The results are not scientific or representative of all evangelicals, but they offer a snapshot of how a group of well-connected evangelicals are leaning in the 2016 election.
This month, respondents shifted toward Sen. Rubio of Florida, whom 53 percent named as either their first or second choice—up from a combined 39 percent in July.
“Many of the candidates running for the Republican nomination are impressive, but Marco Rubio reminds me more of Jack Kennedy every day,” said survey participant Richard Land, the president of Southern Evangelical Seminary, who spent 25 years leading the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission. “Whatever charisma is, he’s got it.”
Many pundits panned Bush’s performance in the first GOP debate, and it showed in the survey results. The former Florida governor’s support was down 8 percent combined, even though 30 percent of respondents said he is the most prepared to be president—easily the highest-rated candidate in the field.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas jumped over Bush (24 percent) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (21 percent) to take second place overall: 29 percent selected Cruz as their first or second choice, up 4 percent from last month.
Carly Fiorina, on the heels of her widely acclaimed debate performance, surged into third place with a combined 25 percent. Only 10 percent of respondents—down from 15 percent last month—said they would not consider voting for her, a number only beaten by Rubio (5 percent) and Walker (8 percent).
Carly Fiorina speaks during an education summit in Londonderry, N.H., on Aug. 19.Although Fiorina is rising in recent national polls, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO still may not have the long-term average to make the main stage when CNN hosts the second GOP debate on Sept. 16. Survey participant Penny Nance, president of Concerned Women for America, the nation’s largest women’s public policy organization, said any debate formula that leaves Fiorina off the main stage would be wrong.
“Carly Fiorina’s debate performance and subsequent ability to articulate a cogent message on economic and foreign policy has earned her the attention of voters,” Nance said.
Donald Trump, who leads the GOP field in national polls, continues to be a non-starter for evangelical insiders. For the second straight month, only 5 percent said Trump is their first or second choice, and 81 percent said they “absolutely” would not consider voting for him—topped only by Democratic candidates Martin O’Malley (83 percent), Hillary Clinton (85 percent), and Bernie Sanders (86 percent). Former evangelical favorites Mike Huckabee (5 percent), Rick Perry (2 percent), and Rick Santorum (zero votes) all saw their waning support erode even further. Ben Carson, who sits third in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, only garnered 3 percent of combined support, but significantly more respondents indicated they would now consider him.