We focus on the number of votes candidates rack up. But an Associated Press story reminds us that the number of delegates is everything in winning the nomination. And that might not have anything to do with the number of votes each candidate won. For example, in South Carolina, Donald Trump won each of the voting districts, so he ended up with all of that states’ 50 delegates. The other candidates, though their total number of votes was more than Trump’s, got nothing.
So far, Trump has 67 delegates; Cruz has 11; and Rubio has 10. It takes 1,237 to win the nomination. But 752 are from winner-take-all states, which will begin voting on March 15.
So Trump could build an unstoppable lead in delegates, even though most Republicans don’t vote for him because they split their vote among the other candidates. On the other hand, a few winner-take-all wins from the other guys could change the picture. (For example, the March 15 winner-take-all primaries include Marco Rubio’s Florida, with 99 delegates, and John Kasich’s Ohio with 66.)
More delegate math after the jump.
From Steve Peoples and Stephen Ohlemacher, Time Is Running Out for Donald Trump’s Rivals to Stop Him, Associated Press:
Winning states generates headlines, but the nomination is earned by collecting a majority of the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses. . . .
This year, most contests award delegates proportionally, based on each candidate’s share of the vote. Beeson and strategists for other campaigns argue that could make it hard for Trump to build a big lead because even the second- and third-place finisher can win delegates.
If one candidate can run up a significant lead, as Trump has begun to, then proportional contests also make it difficult for rivals to catch up.
South Carolina is the perfect example of this problem for Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. The state isn’t winner-take-all when it comes to delegates, but Trump’s strength in all parts of South Carolina allowed him to haul in all 50 delegates awarded in Saturday’s primary.Trump now has 67 delegates. Cruz and Rubio took home none from South Carolina, leaving them with a total of 11 and 10, respectively. . . .
Only a small fraction of the delegates to be won in the GOP primary season, which began Feb. 1 in Iowa and ends June 7 in California and a handful of other states, have been awarded to date. But some of Trump’s opponents acknowledge he could build an insurmountable lead by mid-March if current trends continue.
“There are going to be a lot of circumstances where we can declare some victories and at least get this thing to March 15,” Beeson said. “Once we get to March 15, if the die has not been cast by then, it’s a different game.”
Why March 15?
That’s the first day on which the GOP’s rules allow states to hold a winner-take-all contest.
Florida will award 99 delegates that day, while Ohio will give out 66. The Missouri primary is that day, too.
Like South Carolina, Missouri awards a pot of delegates to the statewide winner, as well as three delegates each to the winner of each congressional district. That makes it possible for one candidate to win all of Missouri’s 52 delegates, or at least a large majority.
Put simply, it’s a day in which a candidate running second to Trump could catch up. Or fall even further behind.
Altogether, there are 14 such contests on the GOP primary calendar, offering a total of 752 delegates. That’s not enough delegates to claim the nomination; it takes 1,237. But if one candidate wins most of those states, he could build a lead too big to overcome.
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