The GOP race after South Carolina

The GOP race after South Carolina February 20, 2016

Donald Trump was the choice of nearly one-third of South Carolina Republican voters, winning the primary.  But that means that two-thirds of the Republicans voted against him.

If the bottom three candidates would quit the race, their combined 22.6% of the vote would turn the tide against Trump.  In fact, if their votes were split for Cruz (22.3%) and Rubio (22.5%), BOTH of them would beat Trump (32.5%).

Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their party.  Jeb Bush has done the right thing in dropping out of the race.  Now John Kasich and Ben Carson should do the same.

Right now, it is a three-way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.  Trump is by no means the inevitable Republican nominee, unless the two Cubans stay in it too long, splitting the anti-Trump vote.  

We should know more about which one is the most viable on Super Tuesday, March 1, when delegates from twelve states (Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Tennessee, and Alaska) are at stake.

What about superdelegates, the party officials, office holders, and insiders who get free seats and votes at the convention?  With the Democrats, there are so many superdelegates (15% of the total), nearly all of whom are for Hillary Clinton, that even though Bernie Sanders has won more votes than she has in the primaries and caucuses, he is still way behind in the number of delegates, which is all that matters in the nomination process.

Republicans, though, have far fewer superdelegates, only 7% of the total, and by party rules they have to vote as their state delegations do.  So superdelegates might stop Bernie Sanders, but they can’t stop Trump.  (See this for the superdelegate rules.)

What is your analysis of where things stand now?


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