Nobody really knows the political impact of the leaked Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Democrats hope that the fear of losing “the right to an abortion” will create a tidal wave of support, reversing their plummeting popularity. Republicans reason that zealous abortion supporters already vote Democratic, so that the abortion issue will have little impact, especially compared to other issues such as soaring inflation.
But there is one wild card that is receiving little attention. What will pro-abortion conservatives do?
Yes, there is such a thing. They are surprisingly common in Donald Trump’s working class base, among young Republicans, and in the libertarian strain of the conservative coalition.
Emily Jashinsky of The Federalist has written an eye-opening article entitled Will Dobbs Splinter The GOP’s ‘Barstool Conservative’ Coalition?
She quotes Dave Portnoy, founder of the internet site Barstool Sports and a fervent Trump supporter. Reacting to the prospect of Roe v. Wade being overturned, he told an interviewer, “If that’s an issue, I vote Democrat.”
Portnoy is a major spokesman for what has been called “barstool conservatives.” This faction likes to “own the libs,” but also tends to prize sexual promiscuity. They embody a kind of populist libertarianism, the desire to “do what I damn well please.” They despise liberals with their speech codes, politically correctness, and nanny-state big government. They love Donald Trump for the very qualities that his more respectable supporters wish he would tone down: his defiance of norms, his willingness to say whatever he thinks, his hostility to opponents, his history of womanizing. Many barstool conservatives, though, do not go along with Trump’s pro-life turn or his fast-track development of the COVID vaccine. To be sure, not all barstool conservatives are in favor of abortion, but many of them are.
More intellectual libertarians also believe in abortion, as the pages of Reason Magazine show (e.g., this). Again, some libertarians are pro-life, reasoning that taking a child’s life is a violation of his or her freedom. Reason sometimes publishes articles to that effect (e.g., this, which says that a third of libertarians are pro-life).
And then there are the remnants of the old “country club Republicans,” members of the affluent business class who, unlike many of their peers, chose not to defect to the Democrats, due to their commitment to capitalism. Many of them, like their patron Nelson Rockefeller, support abortion, along with the rest of their class. Again, not all do.
The point is, the repeal of Roe v. Wade threatens to peal off one segment of the conservative coalition. This may have ramifications not only for the midterm elections later this year and the presidential election in 2024. It will also have ramifications for the state battles over the issue that are bound to follow.
If abortion becomes the defining issue for both Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed, these conservatives will have to make a decision about their priorities.
When Roe v. Wade was in effect, not much could be done to outlaw abortion. As a result, coalition building was easier, with Republican politicians being able to pledge their fealty to the pro-life cause without having to do much, and pro-abortion conservatives being willing to work together with pro-life conservatives on the concerns they had in common without worrying much about what divides them. Throwing out Roe v. Wade will force the issue.
This means we can expect conflict over abortion within the Republican Party and within Red States, and we pro-lifers won’t always like the outcome.
Photo: Dave Portnoy by Zach Catanzareti Photo, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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