David French writes about the political “realignment” that we have often blogged about and that many Democrats are finally noticing with alarm. The working class, once in the pocket of the Democratic party, is increasingly conservative and Republican. While the affluent, college-educated white middle class–including the corporate overlords who were once the stereotypical rich Republicans–are now progressive Democrats.
Not only that, at the very moment that Democrats are emphasizing the politics of race, more and more Blacks and, especially, Hispanics are turning into conservative Republicans!
French cites two recent reports from liberals that raise these problems for their side. In Axios, Josh Kraushaar, in The Great Realignment, says, “Shifts in the demographics of the two parties’ supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.” As late as 2018, Democrats had a 47% edge over Hispanics, but now, according to recent surveys, the two parties are statistically tied.
“Democratic strategists say the party’s biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.” And, Kraushaar says, they aren’t. “Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets,” he says. “Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.” Conversely, the new affluent Democratic base doesn’t have to worry about economic problems like inflation the way working class folks of every race have to. “Wealthier Americans aren’t feeling the day-to-day hardship hitting the working class.”
Another analysis is from Ruy Teixeira at his Substack post The Liberal Patriot, entitled Working Class and Hispanic Voters Are Losing Interest in the Party of Abortion, Gun Control and the January 6th Hearings. After crunching some poll results, he observes, “Shockingly, white college Democratic support in this poll is actually higher than support among all nonwhite voters.”
“It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Democrats’ emphasis on social and democracy issues, while catnip to some socially liberal, educated voters, leaves many working class and Hispanic voters cold.” He then looks at poll results on specific positions, contrasting the views of “strong progressives,” with those of Hispanic voters and working class voters.
On the question of whether America is the greatest nation in the world, 66% of strong progressives say that it is not. But 70% of Hispanics and 69% of blue collar workers say that it is.
An “amazing” 94% of strong progressives are convinced that racism is not an individual vice but is systemic, built into American society. But 58% of Hispanics, along with 57% of workers, disagree.
Among strong progressives, a nearly unanimous 97% believe that immigration should be made easier, rather than enforcing the borders. But only 47% of Hispanics, the group largely affected by this issue, believe that. As a whole, 58% of working class voters want tougher border controls.
On transgenderism, 66% say that athletes should compete according to their current gender identity. But 64% of Hispanics and 63% of workers believe athletes should compete according to their gender at birth.
On shifting funding away from police departments to social services, 87% of strong progressives want to do that. But 50% of Hispanics want full funding of the police, with 41% wanting defunding and the rest somewhere in between. Working class voters oppose defunding 59%-31%.
On the notion that hard work is the key to success, 88% of strong progressives disagree. But 55% of Hispanics and 55% of workers agree that working hard can lead to social mobility.
Teixeira, liberal that he is, concludes:
Strong progressives clearly live in a different world than Hispanic and working class voters. In strong progressive world, views on abortion, gun control and January 6th fit neatly into an overarching set of sociocultural beliefs that are highly salient to them and increasingly drive the Democratic party’s priorities and rhetoric. Hispanic and working class voters lack this overarching set of beliefs—in fact, don’t share many of them—and are much more concerned with the basics of their material lives. It should thus be no surprise that these voters are increasingly losing interest in the party of abortion, gun control and January 6th.
But, according to French, these liberal analysts are neglecting a factor that best accounts for this political and ideological realignment. We’ll discuss that tomorrow.
Photo: “Large Hispanic Family Celebrating Birthday” by Joseph Thibault via Flickr, CC 2.0. Enlarged.
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